China’s Rise; Democratic Primaries Heat Up w/ Jostein Hauge, Melat Kiros, Matt Bernstein | MR Live
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US hawkish trade policies, particularly since 2018, have inadvertently spurred China's technological innovation and self-reliance, rather than curtailing it.
- ❖China's rapid infrastructure development, especially its high-speed rail, and significant investment in clean energy technology are driving economic growth while stabilizing or reducing carbon emissions.
- ❖There is a stark generational divide within the Republican party, with younger members (under 45) being significantly less supportive of aid to Israel and more critical of US foreign intervention.
- ❖The Israel lobby's influence in US primaries is substantial, successfully targeting anti-Zionist or Israel-critical voices through massive spending.
- ❖Progressive candidates like Melat Kiros are gaining traction by focusing on issues like an arms embargo on Israel and universal healthcare, leveraging grassroots organizing and volunteer networks.
- ❖Centrist politicians often exhibit contradictory policy justifications, such as dismissing polling for foreign policy decisions while citing it for domestic issues like Medicare for All.
- ❖China's 'non-aligned' and cooperative approach to international relations, focusing on investment and infrastructure, contrasts sharply with the US's 'aging, archaic, idiotic' alliance-focused strategy.
Insights
1US Hawkishness Inadvertently Boosts China's Innovation
US aggressive trade policies and export restrictions, particularly since 2018, have backfired by forcing Chinese companies to become more innovative and self-sufficient. For example, a major Chinese manufacturing company reported being compelled to innovate due to US entity list restrictions. China's critical minerals restrictions on rare earths were also a direct response to US aggression, indicating a strategic shift by China to develop its own 'weapons' against US pressure.
Jostein Hauge's observations from China, discussing a major manufacturing company and government officials' statements.
2Generational Divide in Republican Support for Israel
A New York Times/Sienna poll reveals a stark generational split within the Republican party regarding support for Israel and foreign policy. Only 33% of Republicans aged 18-44 support additional economic and military aid to Israel, compared to 72% of those 45 and older. A majority (54%) of younger Republicans believe Trump has been too supportive of Israel, versus 16% of older Republicans. This suggests a significant fracture in the Republican base that could be leveraged.
New York Times/Sienna poll data cited by the host.
3China's Economic Rise and Diplomatic Strategy
China is experiencing rapid economic growth while stabilizing or reducing carbon emissions, largely due to massive investments in clean energy technology and infrastructure, such as its world-leading high-speed rail system. On the international stage, China employs a 'non-aligned' and cooperative approach, willing to strike deals with various nations, including those perceived as US adversaries, which contrasts with the US's 'aging, archaic' alliance-focused foreign policy.
Jostein Hauge's observations from his recent visit to China and his analysis of China's international relations.
4Progressive Campaigns Leverage Grassroots Power Against Incumbents
Melat Kiros's campaign for Colorado's first congressional district demonstrates the power of grassroots organizing, particularly with DSA support. Her campaign secured 67% of the vote in the district assembly, nearly unseating a 30-year incumbent who barely met the ballot access threshold. This success is attributed to extensive volunteer efforts (over 500 volunteers), door-knocking, and a focus on popular progressive issues like an arms embargo on Israel and Medicare for All, resonating with voters tired of corporate-funded politicians.
Melat Kiros detailing her campaign's district assembly results and volunteer efforts.
5Centrist Politicians' Inconsistent Policy Justifications
The interview with Michigan Senate candidate Mallerie McMorro exposed her contradictory reasoning for policy positions. She dismissed polling data as a basis for foreign policy decisions (e.g., continued support for Israel despite public opposition) but cited a lack of polling support for her stance against Medicare for All. This highlights a lack of transparency in decision-making, where neither public opinion nor consistent ideological principles appear to be the driving force.
Matt Bernstein and Emma Vigland's recap of their interview with Mallerie McMorro.
Bottom Line
Israel's leadership may intentionally foster antisemitism abroad to justify its ethnostate. By creating an environment where Jews feel threatened globally, it encourages emigration to Israel, reinforcing the Zionist project.
This perspective suggests that some Israeli leaders view external antisemitism not as a problem to be solved, but as a strategic tool. It implies a cynical manipulation of Jewish safety for geopolitical ends, potentially exacerbating tensions and endangering Jewish communities outside Israel.
Progressive movements could expose this alleged strategy to further fracture support for the Israeli government, particularly among Jewish communities and those concerned with global human rights, by highlighting how such policies undermine true safety and coexistence.
The DNC's 200-page autopsy report on recent elections notably omitted any mention of 'Israel,' 'Palestine,' or 'Gaza,' despite these issues being central to voter dissatisfaction and progressive mobilization.
This omission indicates a deliberate avoidance by the Democratic establishment to address highly contentious foreign policy issues that are alienating a significant portion of their base, particularly younger and progressive voters. It suggests a disconnect between party leadership and voter priorities.
Progressive campaigns can capitalize on this silence by explicitly addressing these issues, positioning themselves as responsive to voter concerns that the establishment ignores, thereby drawing disillusioned voters and volunteers.
Key Concepts
Cold Peace
A state of strategic stability between major powers (US and China) characterized by continued economic interdependence and cooperation where possible, but still maintaining certain trade restrictions and underlying geopolitical rivalry, avoiding direct conflict but lacking full warmth.
Boomerang Effect of Hawkishness
Aggressive trade policies or restrictions (e.g., US against China) can inadvertently force the targeted nation to become more innovative and self-reliant, ultimately strengthening its position rather than weakening it.
Lessons
- Support grassroots progressive campaigns, like Melat Kiros's, by volunteering for door-knocking, phone banking, or text banking, as these efforts are proving effective against well-funded incumbents.
- When engaging with politicians, particularly centrists, press for specific policy justifications and expose inconsistencies in their reasoning, especially when they selectively apply polling data or ideological principles.
- Recognize and leverage the generational shifts in political opinion, particularly among younger Republicans who are increasingly critical of traditional foreign policy and military aid, to create new political fractures and alliances.
Notable Moments
Melat Kiros's campaign secured 67% of the vote in the Colorado 1st congressional district assembly, nearly preventing a 30-year incumbent from making the ballot, showcasing the power of grassroots organizing.
This demonstrates that even against entrenched power, strong volunteer networks and a clear progressive message can significantly challenge establishment candidates and force them to confront voter dissatisfaction.
Matt Bernstein's interview with Mallerie McMorro, a centrist Michigan Senate candidate, where she was pressed on inconsistent policy stances regarding Israel and Medicare for All, leading to her campaign's subsequent reluctance to engage with similar interviewers.
This highlights the effectiveness of direct, unyielding questioning in exposing political inconsistencies and the reluctance of establishment politicians to engage when their talking points are challenged, providing a model for critical political journalism.
Quotes
"The destiny of America is always safer in the hands of the people than in the conference rooms of any elite."
"It's evangelicals and old Republicans that are maintaining support for this genocidal settler colonial project."
"China does not engage in regime change operations. China does not invade other countries. China does not bomb other countries. China does not impose structural adjustment programs on other countries."
"If we want to end the genocide, if you are a candidate that's saying we need to end the violence and we need to protect the children, then stop sending the weapons that are killing them in the first place. It's really that simple."
"I don't think everyone has to climb the ladder of like insatiable power to the point where then they get, you know, bought out by these donors and whatever and and put forth indefensible policy positions that I have to imagine if Mallerie McMorro were just an individual that I was getting dinner with that she could not defend."
Q&A
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