BREAKING: IRGC Launch Missiles On Israel - IRAN WAR RETURNS - LIVE Coverage
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The IRGC launched multiple ballistic missiles from Kermanshah and Isfahan towards northern Israel, including Haifa.
- ❖Most Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted by Israeli defenses; one missile reportedly caused a fire in an open area.
- ❖The IRGC's motive is to force the US and Israel into an all-out war, which they believe would alleviate internal pressures caused by the ongoing blockade of Hormuz.
- ❖The US and Israeli strategy focuses on a 'suffocation' approach, using a blockade to weaken the Iranian regime financially and politically from within.
- ❖Israel responded to the missile attacks with major strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
- ❖Airspace closures and air defense activities were reported in Iran (Tabriz, Isfahan, Tehran) and Iraq, with one Iranian missile reportedly misfiring and landing in Syria.
- ❖US and Israeli leaders are deliberating their response, balancing the need for retaliation with the desire to maintain the long-term 'suffocation strategy'.
Insights
1IRGC's Desperate Provocation for All-Out War
The IRGC launched ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes in Beirut, but their primary motivation is to force the US and Israel into an all-out war. This is a desperate attempt to break the ongoing 'suffocation strategy' implemented by the US military, which involves a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to severe economic and internal pressure on the Iranian regime.
The host states, 'The IRGC have been trying their best to ruin the the US military's strategy which has been to basically just keep the blockade of Hormuz and slowly suffocate the regime in Iran. So they they IRGC been trying to drag everybody back to an all-out war.' and 'This is exactly what the IRGC wants. The IRGC want an all-out war because it creates unity for them in in terms of their infighting, but also it creates urgency to change the American strategy so that they no longer have the upper hand.'
2Effectiveness of Israeli Air Defense and Limited Iranian Impact
Despite multiple waves of ballistic missile launches from Iran, Israel's air defense systems successfully intercepted nearly all incoming projectiles. Only one missile was confirmed to have had an impact in northern Israel, causing a fire in an open area, indicating minimal damage and a lack of strategic success for the Iranian attack.
The host reports, 'All missiles were intercepted.' at , and later, 'At this point, every single ballistic missile has been successfully intercepted by Israel. So, not much has been actually achieved by the regime in Iran.' at . He later confirms, 'one missile has now been has now hit Israel, northern Israel' at , which led to 'a fire situation in northern Israel due to one of the ballistic missiles from Iran. I think it's probably just hit an open area' at .
3Strategic Dilemma: Retaliation vs. Sustaining 'Suffocation'
The US and Israel face a critical decision: whether to retaliate directly against Iran, which would fulfill the IRGC's goal of escalating to all-out war, or to maintain their current 'suffocation strategy' through the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Direct retaliation risks derailing the long-term plan to weaken the regime from within, while no response could be perceived as weakness.
The host explains, 'this is basically they're trying their best to change a force President Trump to change his strategy by rushing into an all-out war in response. But we we have to see if the Americans and the Israelis are going to take the bait or if they're just going to stay patient.' and 'If anybody is smarter than Al-Zamir and the IDF and the US military generals, then of course raise your hands, apply for the job, and then you can have a better plan to defeat the regime using air strikes.'
4IRGC's Declining Popularity and Embarrassing Rallies
The host observes that the IRGC's public support and rally attendance have significantly dwindled over the years. Despite the missile launches, their celebratory rallies in Tehran were small and 'embarrassing,' reflecting a decline in popular support compared to previous decades.
The host notes, 'The IRGC rallies are also getting smaller and smaller, which is a little bit embarrassing. Obviously, a couple of decades ago... you would have like a million people out, 2 million people out. But, over the years, it got smaller and smaller... these days at their rallies, they're only be able to get a few thousand people out, which is a slightly embarrassing.'
Key Concepts
Suffocation Strategy vs. All-Out War Provocation
This model contrasts two geopolitical strategies: the 'suffocation strategy' (US/Israel) aims to weaken an adversary from within through economic blockade and sustained pressure, avoiding direct large-scale conflict. The 'all-out war provocation' (IRGC) seeks to force a direct military confrontation, believing it can create internal unity, disrupt the adversary's long-term strategy, and potentially gain leverage.
Lessons
- Analyze geopolitical events by considering the underlying strategic motivations of all actors, not just immediate reactions or stated reasons.
- Be critical of state-sponsored media and celebratory displays from belligerent regimes, as they often serve as propaganda to mask strategic failures or internal weaknesses.
- Understand that military strategies can be complex and long-term, such as 'suffocation' through economic pressure, which may not involve overt military action but can be highly effective.
Notable Moments
IRGC members and Hezbollah supporters celebrating missile launches with rallies in Tehran and Lebanon, despite minimal impact on Israel.
This highlights the propaganda aspect of these actions, where the perceived success and morale boost are prioritized over actual military effectiveness, especially when facing internal dissent or external pressure.
An Iranian ballistic missile misfired and landed in Syria.
This demonstrates potential incompetence or technical issues within the IRGC's missile program, contrasting with their claims of precision and strength.
The host's observation that the IRGC's public rallies have significantly shrunk over the years, indicating declining popular support.
This provides a crucial insight into the internal weakness of the Iranian regime, suggesting that external pressure combined with internal dissent is a more potent threat than direct military confrontation.
Quotes
"The IRGC have been trying their best to ruin the the US military's strategy which has been to basically just keep the blockade of Hormuz and slowly suffocate the regime in Iran. So they they IRGC been trying to drag everybody back to an all-out war."
"The Iranian regime has made a grave mistake. Also saying that we struck Hezbollah in Beirut in response to non-stop strikes on North Israel. Don't forget that Hezbollah and the IRGC started this."
"The aggressive Zionist regime, through repeated violations of the ceasefire, is increasing its its acts of malice against the oppressed people of Lebanon day by day... We had previously warned that if the crimes in the Beirut suburban area Dahiyeh is expanded, we would attack targets in the occupied territories."
"The blockade could. Is Islamic Republic missile launch a sign of regime weakness? It's a sign of yes that that they are desperate and they they are getting suffocated and that's what they are itching for all-out war."
"Containment or a symbolic response will signal to our enemies that the blood of our citizens is permitted. Therefore, Israel must act with strength and effectiveness on this matter."
Q&A
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