Ray McGovern: West Asia Changing FAST, Israel LOSES Big - Putin REJECTS Zelensky

Iran has successfully altered its negotiation strategy with the United States, now insisting that any agreement must include considerations for Lebanon and Gaza. This reflects Iran's increased regional influence and its ability to integrate these areas into its 'arc of resistance,' making them non-negotiable elements in broader diplomatic efforts. Robert Kagan's assessment confirms Iran's growing control over vital chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, granting it substantial economic and political leverage globally.

The host notes Iran's changed strategy to include Lebanon and Gaza in US negotiations [00:01:46]. Robert Kagan states, 'Iran is in control of the straight... It'll be under Iranian management, which means they will control who gets in and who gets out' [00:10:02].

Ray McGovern asserts that international law supports the right of occupied peoples to resist their occupiers, including through violent means. He cites historical examples like Ireland's struggle against Great Britain and references a Chinese lawyer at the UN body in Geneva who affirmed this principle. This perspective frames the actions of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah as legally justified responses to what is considered an illegal occupation by Israel, dating back to the unprovoked 1967 Six-Day War.

McGovern states, 'international law and the right under international law for resistance people against illegal occupation to work their will against the occupiers... Yes, it's legal' [00:04:00]. He mentions Menachem Begin's admission that the 1967 war was unprovoked [00:05:29] and UN Resolution 242 [00:06:23].

Despite common perception, Israel is not a formal ally of the United States. In 1973, Israel rejected a mutual defense treaty offer from the US because such treaties would require internationally recognized borders and pre-notification for military actions against neighbors. Instead, Israel benefits from a unique arrangement where its military and intelligence operations are deeply intermeshed with the US, providing it with support without the constraints of a formal alliance.

McGovern explains, 'Israel is not an ally of the United States... We offered them a mutual defense treaty... they rejected it' [00:27:57]. He notes treaties require recognized borders and pre-notification for attacks, which Israel wanted to avoid [00:29:15]. He adds that recent legislation 'melds the Israeli army and the US army in a way that has never been melded before' [00:30:01].

Vladimir Putin dismissed a recent letter from Ukrainian President Zelensky as an 'insult' and a propaganda tactic, refusing to engage in talks with a leader he considers illegitimate and whose term has expired. Putin indicated that the war is nearing its end, potentially by the close of the year, with Russia achieving its demilitarization objectives. He emphasized Russia's capability for precision strikes on decision-making centers, not civilian areas, and expressed willingness for serious negotiations only when Ukraine is ready to 'recognize reality' and accept Russian compromises.

Putin 'answered politely that that's not going to happen' regarding a meeting with Zelensky [00:33:40]. McGovern states Putin's view that Zelensky's letter was 'an insult a grand insult' [00:33:54] and that 'it's going to be over by the end of this year' [00:35:01]. Putin also highlighted Russia's air defenses and ability to 'work our will as we wish on Kiev' [00:37:07].