Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: Iran FIRES MISSILES at US Destroyers – US Ships FLEE to Indian Ocean
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran demonstrated military capability in the Persian Gulf, forcing US destroyers to retreat, a claim denied by CENTCOM but supported by Iranian video.
- ❖Iran communicated a halt to nuclear talks and a planned nuclear demonstration to the US via Pakistan, leading to a reported de-escalation of US provocations.
- ❖Analysts argue Iran's nuclear ambition is primarily a deterrent against Israel, which is seen as the main source of regional instability, rather than the US.
- ❖Iran issued a direct threat to Israel, stating it would retaliate against attacks on Lebanon, marking a significant shift in its regional posture.
- ❖A new US legislative provision (Section 224) aims to merge US and Israeli militaries, bypassing State Department oversight and potentially enriching defense contractors.
Insights
1Iran's Assertive Stance in the Persian Gulf
Iran reportedly targeted two US destroyers with suicide drones and anti-ship missiles, forcing them to retreat from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman. This incident, initially denied by CENTCOM, was later supported by Iranian video evidence. This action is framed as a deliberate demonstration of Iran's resolve and a message to the United States.
for the third time it seems that it was reported that the two American destroyers tried to enter the Persian Gulf without Iran's permission... Iranian navy said they announced that it targeted vessels with suicide drones and anti-ship missiles and forcing them to return back to the sea of Oman.
2Iran's Nuclear Deterrence Strategy Against Israel
Iran's potential pursuit of a nuclear weapon is primarily driven by the need to deter Israel, not the United States. Analysts suggest that Israel's aggressive actions and its role as the "real problem in the region" provide Iran with a strong strategic rationale to develop a nuclear deterrent, similar to North Korea's strategy against the US.
it's not necessarily the United States Iran is trying to deter... it's Israel... Do they really have the strategic rationale to get a nuclear weapon and to demonstrate that they have a nuclear weapon? It's not the United States they're trying to deter. They've deterred us... It's Israel.
3Iran's Direct Threat to Israel Regarding Lebanon
For the first time in 47 years, Iran directly threatened Israel, stating that if Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran will retaliate against northern Israel. This marks a significant game-changer, indicating Iran's increased confidence in its ability to deliver on such threats and highlighting the escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict.
This is the first time you see Iran coming out and saying to Israel, 'If you attack Lebanon, we're going to do the same to the northern part of Israel.'" and "at no time in that 47-year history until now did Iran directly speak up and say, 'Okay, if if you don't stop attacking, we're going to attack you.' And and so that that that's a game-changer, I think.
4US Foreign Policy Hypocrisy and Historical Interventions
The US is criticized for its hypocritical foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East, where it has historically supported dictators, overthrown democratically elected governments (like in Iran), and demonized former allies (e.g., Saddam Hussein, Manuel Noriega) when they no longer served US interests. This pattern of interventionism and lack of self-reflection is identified as the root cause of many global problems.
The United States is fundamentally pissed off at the Iranian the Iranians who rose up and overthrew a CIA-installed regime. That's it... We did it to Manuel Noriega, we did it to Muammar Gaddafi, did it to Saddam Hussein. We've been trying to do it to Iran... at some point the United States needs to look in the mirror and say, 'You know what? The problem's not out there, the problem's here.' We're the problem.
5Section 224: Merging US-Israeli Militaries and Bypassing Oversight
A new US legislative provision, Section 224, aims to merge US and Israeli military operations, effectively transferring oversight of military aid from the State Department to the Pentagon. This move, allegedly influenced by Netanyahu, is seen as a way to bypass political-military policy considerations, increase military spending, and primarily benefit defense contractors like Lockheed Martin, rather than genuinely improving security or technology.
Mr. Netanyahu actually wrote to a member of Congress to put this section 224 into the bill... What this is is giving similar authorities to DOD over things that have been throughout the bureaucracy... There'll be no oversight other than DOD. Oh, and guess who else will be overseeing it? Lockheed Martin, RTX, Grumman, Boeing and a host of other bandits.
Bottom Line
The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is increasingly seen as defunct due to global power dynamics and the incentive for states to acquire nuclear weapons for deterrence against perceived existential threats.
This trend suggests a potential acceleration of nuclear proliferation, making the world a more dangerous place as more states seek nuclear capabilities to ensure their sovereignty in a "Hobbesian world."
For nations facing significant external threats, pursuing a nuclear deterrent might become a more viable and strategically rational option, despite international condemnation.
Russia is under significant internal pressure to escalate the war in Ukraine, potentially expanding targets to include NATO countries like Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia if drone attacks on Russian civilian targets continue.
This escalation could trigger Article 5 of NATO, potentially drawing the US into a direct conflict, especially given uncertainty about a Trump administration's response.
For defense industries, this scenario presents a massive increase in demand for advanced weaponry and air defense systems, as well as opportunities for cybersecurity and counter-drone technologies.
Lessons
- Monitor Iran's military exercises and official statements for further indications of nuclear capability demonstrations or direct engagements in the Persian Gulf.
- Analyze the long-term implications of the US Section 224 provision on the US-Israel relationship, regional stability, and the influence of defense contractors on foreign policy.
- Re-evaluate existing geopolitical risk assessments in the Middle East, considering Iran's heightened assertiveness and Israel's internal political pressures and military overstretch.
Notable Moments
A senior Pakistani official allegedly conveyed Iran's message to the US (via Marco Rubio) that Iran would halt nuclear talks and demonstrate a nuclear weapon.
This alleged communication, deliberately sent over a non-secure line, signaled Iran's serious intent and led to a reported reduction in US provocations in the Persian Gulf, indicating a shift in US policy.
Hezbollah's evolution from a militant group to a governing entity providing social services and healthcare in Lebanon.
This transformation makes Hezbollah an indispensable political and military force in Lebanon, rendering any peace agreement without their direct involvement ineffective and highlighting the complexity of regional power structures.
Quotes
"It's not the United States they're trying to deter. They've deterred us. They have deterred us quite readily. It's Israel."
"This is the first time you see Iran coming out and saying to Israel, 'If you attack Lebanon, we're going to do the same to the northern part of Israel.'"
"The United States is fundamentally pissed off at the Iranian the Iranians who rose up and overthrew a CIA-installed regime. That's it."
"We're the problem. We need to fix ourselves before we go out claiming that we're here to fix the world."
"The entire country of Israel has a GDP that is less than a single town in my district. Yet somehow Netanyahu thinks he can tell the American people what we should do."
Q&A
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