Trump’s Frightening Late-Night Posting Spree (w/ Michael Weiss) | The Bulwark Podcast
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump engaged in an alarming late-night social media spree, posting over a dozen 'bleets' between 9:49 p.m. and 4:10 a.m., including an AI Jesus photo and military announcements.
- ❖The host, Tim Miller, expresses concern over Trump's mental faculties given his age and the nature of his posts, especially those related to military strategy.
- ❖Even some conservative allies, like Riley Gaines, criticized Trump's 'Jesus' meme, with one MAGA mother-in-law reportedly calling him the 'Antichrist'.
- ❖US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, led by JD Vance, achieved limited success, with Iran proposing a 5-year nuclear halt against the US demand for 20 years.
- ❖US operational objectives in Iran (eliminating nuclear program, missile capability, and proxy power) were not fully met, with Iran retaining significant capabilities.
- ❖Israeli security hawks are reportedly 'depressed' about the Iran situation, not viewing it as a stunning success, contrary to some US pro-Israel, MAGA-adjacent views.
- ❖A covert US-Israeli program to arm Iranian Kurds for insurgency failed, as the provided 'kit' was not distributed as intended.
- ❖The new Iranian leadership, including the Supreme Leader's son, is seen as hardline and tied to the IRGC, suggesting continued challenges for negotiations.
- ❖China has reportedly violated the Hormuz blockade and is preparing weapons shipments for Iran if the ceasefire breaks down, complicating US strategy.
- ❖Ukraine is now a leading innovator in military technology, with a recent capture of an enemy position entirely by ground robotic systems and drones.
- ❖The Hungarian election resulted in a supermajority for Peter Mayar's center-right movement, overturning Viktor Orban's 16-year rule and his pro-Russian policies.
- ❖Evidence emerged of the former Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Cartto, feeding sensitive EU sanctions information to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
- ❖The Hungarian election outcome demonstrates that even deeply entrenched authoritarian-leaning systems can be overcome through persistent, grassroots efforts and independent media.
- ❖There is a growing sentiment in Europe towards 'decoupling' from the United States, driven by anti-Trumpism, and a renewed focus on self-reliance and increased defense spending.
Insights
1Trump's Erratic Late-Night Posting Raises Mental Fitness Concerns
Host Tim Miller details Donald Trump's extensive late-night social media activity, which included an AI-generated image of himself as Jesus and simultaneous announcements of military actions like the Hormuz blockade. Miller expresses significant alarm about the volume and nature of these posts, questioning Trump's mental faculties for making life-or-death decisions while sleep-deprived and posting 'megalomaniacal AI memes.' This behavior even alienated some conservative supporters, such as Riley Gaines, who called for Trump to show 'a little humility.'
Trump posted a dozen 'bleets' from p.m. to a.m., including an AI Jesus photo () and announcing the Hormuz blockade (). Riley Gaines criticized the Jesus meme (), and a MAGA mother-in-law texted 'Trump has crossed the line... he might be the Antichrist' ().
2Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Yield Limited US Success and a 'New Normal' of Kinetic Operations
Michael Weiss explains that US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, despite JD Vance's involvement, have not fully achieved the three operational objectives: eliminating the nuclear program, missile capability, and proxy power. Iran proposed a 5-year halt on nuclear activities versus the US demand for 20 years, indicating a significant gap. US intelligence assessed Iran has more missile launchers than reckoned, and a covert program to arm Iranian Kurds failed. Weiss suggests a 'new normal' where successive US administrations engage in kinetic operations ('mowing the grass') to prevent Iran from reasserting itself, as Iran is wounded but will seek retaliation.
JD Vance's 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad yielded nothing (). Iran proposed a 5-year nuclear halt, US wants 20 (). US intelligence assessed Iran has more missile launchers (). Covert program with Iranian Kurds failed as they 'kept everything' (). Intelligence official confirmed 'mowing the grass' as a likely future scenario ().
3Hungary's Election Overturns Orban's Russia-Aligned Rule, Signaling Democratic Resilience
The Hungarian election saw a 'breathtaking' victory for Peter Mayar's center-right movement, achieving a supermajority and ending Viktor Orban's 16-year rule. Orban had systematically rigged the electoral system and controlled state media, but Mayar's grassroots campaign and independent media efforts prevailed. This victory is significant as it removes a 'Russian satrapy' from Central Europe and its 'backdoor entry' into the EU and NATO. The new government, despite being center-right, is committed to democratic values, rule of law, and improving relations with the EU and Ukraine, offering a model for democratic pushback against entrenched populism.
Orban spent 16 years gerrymandering and controlling media (). Peter Mayar traveled the country, relying on door-knocking (). Intercepted phone calls showed Peter Cartto (Hungarian FM) feeding Sergey Lavrov (Russian FM) sensitive EU sanctions information (). Mayar's victory is a 'supermajority' () and he is a 'center-right guy who in many respects has a border security policy that's even more stringent than the outgoing Fedesh party' ().
Bottom Line
The US's expenditure of advanced munitions (Prisms, Patriot missiles) in the Iran conflict, while Ukraine faces shortages, highlights a potential strategic vulnerability and resource misallocation in 21st-century warfare.
This suggests the US military may be depleting critical, next-generation assets against less sophisticated threats, potentially leaving it unprepared for higher-intensity conflicts or future challenges, especially as China observes these dynamics.
There's an opportunity for the US to reassess its defense spending priorities, accelerate the development and deployment of cost-effective counter-drone technologies (like Ukraine's shotgun approach), and better integrate lessons from current conflicts into strategic planning and procurement.
Growing 'anti-Trumpism' in Europe is driving a benevolent form of 'decoupling' from the United States, pushing European nations to invest heavily in their own defense and economic self-reliance.
While potentially detrimental to US influence in the short term, this shift could lead to a stronger, more independent Europe capable of shouldering more of the global security burden, reducing its reliance on a potentially unreliable US ally.
The US can strategically encourage this European self-reliance, fostering a more balanced partnership rather than a dependent one, by supporting European defense initiatives and economic sovereignty, even if it means some short-term competitive friction.
Lessons
- Monitor the mental and public behavior of political leaders, as erratic social media activity can signal deeper issues affecting their capacity for critical decision-making.
- Recognize that geopolitical conflicts often result in a 'new normal' of sustained, lower-intensity kinetic operations rather than decisive victories, requiring long-term strategic planning.
- Support independent media and grassroots political movements in countries with entrenched authoritarian regimes, as they are crucial for democratic resilience and change, as demonstrated in Hungary.
Notable Moments
Trump's late-night posting spree, including an AI Jesus photo and military announcements, sparks widespread concern and criticism from both the host and some conservative allies.
This highlights the perceived instability and erratic behavior of a leading political figure, raising questions about fitness for office and the impact on domestic and international perception.
The unexpected election outcome in Hungary, where Peter Mayar's movement achieved a supermajority, effectively ending Viktor Orban's 16-year rule and his pro-Russian influence in Europe.
This represents a significant democratic victory against an entrenched authoritarian-leaning regime, offering hope and a potential blueprint for countering populism and restoring democratic norms in other nations.
Quotes
"He's up all night. He's announcing blockades. He's announcing military actions at near 1:00 a.m. after posting about himself as God. I I mean, this is it's alarming. Like, dude needs sleep."
"Why? Seriously, I cannot understand why he'd post this. Is he looking for a response? Does he actually think this? Either way, two things are true. One, a little humility would serve him well. Two, God shall not be mocked."
"Trump has crossed the line exclamation point exclamation point and he posted it on truth social he might be the Antichrist."
"My read of this is it's we have a very interesting kind of split. You get a lot of pro-Israel, mega adjacent, mega curious types in the US saying rah rahrra sis bumba, we won. Trump, you know, really knocked them down... Israeli security hawks... are in uh shall we say maybe not high dudgeon but they're a little more depressed about the situation."
"The United States is learning on its feet how to wage 21st century warfare."
"Ukraine is now the world's leading innovator in military technology."
"The end of of a Russian satropy in central Europe, the end of Russia's sort of backdoor entry into the European Union and NATO um is nothing short of extraordinary."
"There is a way to instrumentalize anti-Americanism as it exists now which is really anti-Trumpism in Europe for the greater good. There is a benevolent form of it and I am very encouraging of this this effort."
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