Trump Made an Insane Bet on a Risky War (w/ Derek Thompson) | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's Iran policy is seen as an extension of his personality, lacking a clear endgame or consistent justification, driven by a desire to 'win' and declare victory.
- ❖The administration employs a 'Control F monarchy' strategy, unearthing dormant legal codes to grant the executive branch extraordinary powers in domestic, trade, and international policy.
- ❖The Pentagon labeled AI company Anthropic a 'supply chain risk' using an esoteric statute (Section 3252) after contract negotiations broke down, effectively attempting to destroy the company.
- ❖The convergence of growing executive power and advanced AI capabilities for mass surveillance creates a 'frightening picture' for American democracy.
- ❖Tech oligarchs align with Trump for deregulation and business deals, viewing him as a 'counterparty' they can negotiate with, despite potential authoritarian implications.
- ❖The Hollywood industry is in a secular decline, with movie ticket sales down 40-50% since the pandemic, making media companies distressed assets.
- ❖GLP-1 drugs, initially for diabetes and weight loss, show promise in treating addiction, neurodegenerative diseases like dementia, and cardiovascular health, indicating a broader therapeutic potential.
Insights
1Trump's Unpredictable Iran Policy Driven by Personality and Transactionalism
The Trump administration's actions in Iran, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader, are characterized by a lack of clear strategy, consistent justification, or defined endgame. Instead, these decisions appear to be an extension of President Trump's personality: a desire for homage, the feeling of winning, and short-term transactional gains. This approach contradicts the MAGA coalition's stated principle of avoiding new foreign wars and engaging in military interventions in the Middle East.
Guest Ruben Gallego found no evidence of imminent attack, consistent justification, or clear endgame for US actions in Iran. Trump's past actions, like tariffs on Switzerland, show a pattern of personal preference over political economy. The policy is demonstrably unpopular, polling at 20-30% approval, even within the MAGA base.
2The 'Control F Monarchy': Weaponizing Obscure Legal Codes
The Trump administration operates by systematically identifying and utilizing dormant or esoteric legal statutes to declare emergencies and grant the executive branch extraordinary powers. This 'Control F monarchy' approach allows them to bypass Congress and traditional legal processes, enabling actions like deploying the National Guard (Statute 10), imposing tariffs (AIPA, 1974 law), or targeting private companies.
Examples include using Statute 10 for National Guard deployment, AIPA for tariffs (later struck down), and a never-before-used 1974 law for new tariffs. This pattern suggests a deliberate search for latent authoritarianism within the US legal code.
3Pentagon's Aggressive Regulation: Attempting to 'Murder' an AI Company
The Pentagon's decision to label AI company Anthropic as a 'supply chain risk' under Section 3252, typically reserved for foreign saboteurs like Huawei, is an egregious overreach. This action, taken after contract negotiations broke down over Anthropic's ethical limits on AI use (e.g., mass surveillance, autonomous weapons), is seen as an attempt to destroy a private company for not complying with government terms, violating principles of private property and free-market capitalism.
Pete Hexath, Secretary of War, used Section 3252 to effectively bar Anthropic from doing business with any company that contracts with the Pentagon (Amazon, Google, Microsoft). This move is sharply ironic given the Trump administration's general anti-regulation stance on AI, making the federal government the 'most aggressive regulator' in the developed world.
4AI and the Rise of Executive Surveillance Power
The confluence of an increasingly powerful executive branch and advanced artificial intelligence poses a significant threat to American democracy. AI's ability to rapidly process and correlate vast amounts of personal data could transform government surveillance, making it easier and cheaper for an administration to build cases against critics or surveil populations, potentially creating a '21st-century panopticon' that eliminates personal freedoms.
The Biden administration's concern about China building a surveillance state with AI highlights this risk. The ease with which AI agents could pull together 'extraordinarily personal information about Americans at the drop of a hat' fundamentally changes the 'microeconomics of government surveillance'.
5Tech Oligarchs' Transactional Alignment with Trump
Many tech oligarchs, despite potential ideological reservations, align with the Trump administration because they perceive him as a 'counterparty' with whom they can negotiate deals and achieve deregulation, particularly in areas like crypto and AI. This transactional relationship prioritizes financial gain and market freedom over concerns about democratic norms or potential authoritarianism, leading to policies that benefit their business interests.
The tech right's support for Trump is linked to desires for crypto deregulation and an 'unfettered globalization' policy for AI, contrasting with the Biden administration's more regulatory approach. The significant deregulation of crypto under Trump is cited as evidence of this bet paying off.
6Hollywood's Irreversible Decline and Politically Influenced Mergers
The traditional Hollywood movie industry is in a severe, secular decline, with movie ticket sales plummeting by 40-50% since the pandemic, indicating it will likely never recover to pre-2020 levels. This macroeconomic distress drives consolidation and job losses. Mergers within this struggling industry, such as the potential Paramount-WBD deal, are further complicated by political influence, where antitrust decisions and deal approvals appear to be based on personal connections to the administration rather than pure market dynamics.
Americans bought 35 movie tickets/year in the 1940s, now 2.5-2.7/year. Movie ticket sales are down 40-50% since the pandemic. The proposed Paramount-WBD merger involves David Ellison, son of Larry Ellison (a close Trump ally), suggesting political favoritism in antitrust decisions. The CEO of WBD stands to make $800-900 million from a sale that will likely lead to thousands of job losses, highlighting moral concerns.
7GLP-1 Drugs: A Multi-faceted Medical Breakthrough
GLP-1 receptor agonists, initially developed for diabetes and later found to be effective for weight loss, are now revealing a broader therapeutic potential. Ongoing clinical trials are exploring their efficacy in treating conditions like addiction, neurodegenerative diseases (dementia, Alzheimer's), and improving cardiovascular health, even in individuals not losing weight. This suggests GLP-1s act on multiple biological pathways, offering hope for previously intractable medical challenges.
Eli Lilly, maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound, is conducting Phase 2 and 3 trials for GLP-1 versions targeting addiction and neurodegenerative health. The drugs reduce inflammation and improve cardiovascular health independent of weight loss. This 'splayed hand' effect, pushing five buttons at once, is a significant scientific advancement.
Bottom Line
The Trump administration's 'Control F monarchy' approach to governance, while seemingly chaotic, represents a predictable pattern of executive power expansion that can be anticipated by legal experts.
This predictability allows for proactive legal challenges and preparedness for future executive actions, potentially mitigating their impact on democratic institutions and individual rights.
Develop AI-powered legal analysis tools to 'run ahead' of administrations, identifying latent authoritarian statutes or emergency powers that could be weaponized, enabling preemptive legal and policy responses.
The transactional alignment of tech oligarchs with a potentially authoritarian administration reveals a prioritization of business interests (deregulation, market access) over broader democratic concerns.
This dynamic suggests that economic incentives can override ideological or ethical considerations for powerful industry players, potentially enabling the erosion of democratic norms in exchange for favorable business environments.
Advocacy groups and policymakers should highlight the long-term risks of such alliances, emphasizing how unchecked corporate power, enabled by a compliant government, can lead to market distortions and societal harms, beyond immediate financial gains.
Key Concepts
Control F Monarchy
A term coined by Derek Thompson to describe the Trump administration's systematic approach of searching through the entire US legal code (like using 'Control F') to discover and revive dormant or esoteric statutes that grant the executive branch extraordinary, often unchecked, emergency powers. This allows the administration to bypass traditional legislative processes and justify actions in domestic, trade, and foreign policy that might otherwise be unconstitutional or unpopular.
Poster Politician Divide
An idea by Derek Thompson suggesting that the online debate (among 'posters') about political ideologies, like 'abundance' principles, often appears far more polarized and conflicting than the actual actions of politicians. While online, certain ideas might be framed as mutually exclusive, in practice, politicians often adopt pragmatic approaches that integrate elements from different ideological camps to achieve practical outcomes, such as progressive leaders embracing supply-side housing reforms.
Lessons
- Monitor executive actions for patterns of 'Control F monarchy' governance, where obscure legal codes are invoked to expand power, and prepare legal challenges.
- Advocate for clear legislative limits on executive emergency powers and the use of AI in surveillance to prevent the erosion of democratic freedoms.
- Understand the complex motivations of powerful industry leaders, recognizing that their support for political figures may be driven by specific business interests like deregulation, rather than broader ideological alignment.
The 'Control F Monarchy' Playbook for Executive Power Expansion
Identify a perceived 'emergency' or crisis that justifies extraordinary government intervention.
Conduct a systematic search of the entire legal code to unearth dormant, esoteric, or rarely used statutes that grant the executive branch broad powers.
Invoke these obscure laws to bypass Congress and traditional legal processes, implementing desired policies in domestic, trade, or foreign affairs.
Engage in court battles to defend these actions, leveraging the ambiguity or historical precedent of the unearthed statutes to push the boundaries of executive authority.
Notable Moments
Discussion on the psychological similarity between a 'hot streak' at a craps table and Trump's approach to foreign policy, where initial 'easy wins' (like Venezuela) lead to increased hubris and risk-taking (like Iran).
This analogy provides a vivid, if crude, psychological framework for understanding the impulsive and escalating nature of Trump's foreign policy decisions, suggesting a lack of long-term strategic thinking.
The hosts' personal reflection on the poster-politician divide, where online ideological debates are far more rigid than the pragmatic realities faced by politicians in executive roles.
This highlights the disconnect between online discourse and real-world governance, suggesting that practical outcomes often necessitate a more flexible and less ideologically pure approach than is often portrayed in media.
Derek Thompson's personal insight into parenting as 'falling in love with a sequence of strangers' and Tim Miller's related experience with adopting a child.
This offers a profound philosophical reflection on the nature of love, change, and human connection, extending beyond the political and business themes to touch on universal human experiences.
Quotes
"The universal theory of attacking Iran is that Donald Trump does whatever the hell he wants whenever the hell he wants and doesn't ask Congress for permission and the Republicans in Congress roll over and say, 'Sure, take whatever article one power you want and make it the new prerogative of the executive branch.'"
"It seems like over and over again the administration is almost like teaching us a lesson in the degree to which American law justifies authoritarianism if you dig deep enough."
"That's an attempt to murder a company as a as the result of simply not getting what they want out of negotiations. That is a direct violation I think of the principle of private property."
"The rise of monarchical powers in the executive branch and the incredible falling price of mass surveillance and the things that autonomous AI agents could do with it, that's a frightening picture."
"The movie industry is never coming back. The film sold about 1.2, 1.6 billion movie tickets a year every year of the 21st century before 2020. At this rate, at current trajectory, we're never going to buy another 100. Americans will never buy 1 billion movie tickets ever again. Ever again."
"You don't raise a singular baby. You raise a series of babies that keep changing yet retain the basic facial structure of the baby that you gave born that that the that the woman gave gave birth to. And there's something really beautiful about this idea that being a parent therefore means falling in love with the sequence of strangers that keep reappearing behind your child's face."
Q&A
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