JD Vance’s Warning to Israel, the Last Desperate Move of Israel-Firsters & Iran’s Growing Strength

Official figures, though acknowledged as unreliable, suggest that in the initial three months of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, over 4,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed by Israel. This contrasts with approximately 3,664 Iranian casualties (fighters and civilians) from the US-Israel coalition. This indicates that Israel used the war against Iran as a pretext to launch a separate, more devastating war against its neighbor, Lebanon, targeting a predominantly Christian and other minority population.

Host Tucker Carlson cites official figures: 'On the Iranian side, the official number is about three thousand six hundred and sixty-four... killed Iranian, fighters and civilians. And the majority are civilians, as usual in wars. Three thousand six hundred... But this is not the largest total killed in a country. In the past three months since this war in the Middle East broke out, which was waged by the United States and Israel, the largest number of killed is not in Iran, not in a Gulf state, but in Lebanon. More than four thousand Lebanese, almost all civilians, killed by Israel... since Israel and the United States launched... the war against Iran.'

Israel's objective in the conflict was to cripple Iran and remove it as a global player. However, the exact opposite occurred. Iran has emerged stronger, gaining international recognition as a significant player in energy and commodity markets, and is perceived as having successfully resisted two of the world's most formidable armies. This outcome represents a 'nightmare scenario' for Israel, as its primary adversary has been inadvertently empowered.

Carlson states: 'They went into this thing with the goal of crippling Iran, tearing the country into warring factions, sidelining it, kind of taking it off the stage as a global player. And that was their goal. They said that. And the exact opposite happened. Iran became stronger... Iran became globally recognized as a real player in international energy and commodity markets, but also as the country that stood up to two of the fiercest, and perhaps least principled armies in the world.'

The conflict has severely depleted US military stockpiles of critical defensive and offensive missiles. Approximately 50% of Patriot ballistic missile interceptors, up to 80% of THAAD interceptors, and about one-third of Tomahawk cruise missiles have been consumed. Replenishment for some systems, like Patriot interceptors and THAAD, is not expected until close to 2030, leaving significant gaps in US defense capabilities and making it vulnerable to other global threats.

Brandon Weichert details: 'About fifty percent of the Patriot ballistic missile interceptor stockpile... and fifty, and probably closer to eighty percent of the THAAD high-altitude area defense interceptors have been consumed... About a third of our entire stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles has been consumed. Significant amounts of JASSM missiles... and almost the entire pre-war stockpile of the new precision strike missiles, the Prisms, have also been utilized.' He adds, 'Patriot interceptors, not until close to 2030. THAAD interceptors and THAAD are the really important ones. That's not going to be provided until probably 2030.'

The host argues that Israel's stated policy of disproportionate retaliation ('kill one of us, we kill a thousand of you') embodies a 'blood guilt' principle, where entire populations are punished for the actions of a few. This is presented as a fundamental abandonment of the core Western civilization concept of individual justice, which holds that the guilty are punished and the innocent are spared, rooted in the Christian understanding of the human soul's equal value.

Carlson states: 'An Israeli minister yesterday said quite explicitly, 'These are the rules we operate by.' 'You kill one of us, we kill a thousand of you.' That is not the behavior of civilized people... It is, by definition, the punishment of the innocent. This is an act that only notorious evil regimes commit in public, and they never declare it... The core idea of Western civilization... is the idea of justice. What is justice in the West, in this thing called Western civilization? Justice is the principle that we punish the guilty and we spare the innocent.' He later adds, 'The current government has abandoned the core principle of Western civilization, which is justice on an individual basis, for an older, darker, indeed evil standard, which is blood guilt.'

The strategic outcome of the conflict is predicted to be a 'post-America Middle East,' where Israel, once central to US regional plans like the Abraham Accords, becomes a pariah state. The new regional powers will include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan (with its nuclear umbrella), Egypt (with Africa's second-largest economy and a strong military), and Turkey (with a robust industrial base capable of independent defense production). These nations will increasingly align against Israel, forcing a shift from containing Iran to containing Israel.

Weichert asserts: 'What I think this is going to lead to geopolitically is a post-America Middle East... where Israel is now likely the pariah state, whereas prior to the war, you'll remember, even, even after October 7th, the Abraham Accords were still really in effect and they were making Israel kind of the hub of this new US-backed order in the Middle East which is now gone.' He lists the new powers: 'Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan with its nuclear umbrella, the Egyptians, second largest economy in Africa, and among the best... perhaps the best conventional military in the Islamic world. And then Turkey, with their very impressive industrial base.'