4/24 Redistricting Fight a Clue to Politics After Trump? w/ Astead Herndon | MR LIVE

Astead Herndon's 2024 reporting highlighted that Democrats were out of touch with voters' legitimate anger over inflation and the southern border. While DC and CNN circles assumed Biden's re-election was a certainty, on-the-ground voters in places like Cleveland expressed frustration over unseen inflation and a lack of focus on basic promises like a $15 minimum wage. This disconnect allowed Trump to seize on these issues effectively.

Herndon's reporting in 2022-2023 found 'legitimate anger about an inflation crisis folks felt was unseen' and 'anger about a southern border for folks felt was overrun.' He noted job numbers were in a 'pre-revision stage,' leading to a narrative disconnected from voters' 'month-to-month pain.'

Public sentiment on immigration is not monolithic; voters distinguish between a desire for 'border security' and a rejection of the 'dramatic Steven Miller version of enforcement' or mass deportations. While scenes from the border in 2021 were 'universally disliked,' this does not equate to support for Trump's extreme measures. The absence of an affirmative vision from Democrats creates a vacuum that demagoguery fills.

Herndon states, 'people appreciating some sense or measure of border quote unquote security... is distinct from seeing u wanting to see the kind of like dramatic Steven Miller version of enforcement.' He notes that 'nothing has driven the desire for more immigration now than what Donald Trump has done.'

Democrats consistently work from the premise of winning over an 'imagined centrist' or 'moderate' voter, often neglecting the broader electorate, including 'double haters' and independents who are disconnected from the system. These voters are not 'in between right and left' but feel a systemic disconnect, making traditional centrist appeals ineffective.

Herndon explains, Democrats 'work from the premise of the of winning over the quote the centrist the moderate they kind of imagine centrist and then hope kind of other folks will come along.' He contrasts this with 'people who don't vote even people who define themselves as independent... there's a disconnect from system broadly.'

Issues like the Israel-Palestine conflict or the Iran war are not isolated foreign policy concerns but serve as 'gateway moral accountability' tests for voters. If a politician is perceived as dishonest or morally compromised on these issues, it erodes trust and credibility on all other issues, including domestic economic concerns.

Herndon states, 'when something among Democrats is a consensus about genocide then that means that they're looking for you to reflect that language as a basic basic moral question as a basic way of understanding credibility.' He adds, 'why do they trust someone like Mumani to follow through on his economic agenda? That's a connected issue.'

Trump's 'America First' premise, particularly his promise of 'no forever wars,' attracted a unique coalition beyond his traditional Republican base, including working-class minorities and younger voters. His administration's actions, such as initiating a 'regime change war in Iran,' directly contradict this premise, leading to a legitimate break and lowest approval ratings even among some Republicans.

Herndon observes, 'the new swing voter as a kind of workingclass minority or young person who I don't think sees itself on an ideological spectrum. And I think for a lot of those questions, there is an America first premise that Donald Trump really sold them on.' He notes Trump's actions in Iran 'is a legitimate break that we're seeing manifested in some polling.'