Marc Elias Delivers MAJOR WARNING about 2026 Elections | PoliticsGirl
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Election denialism is the consistent ideology driving MAGA efforts to control elections.
- ❖The 2026 elections are predicted to be less free and fair due to federal interference, right-wing vigilantes, and emboldened state actors.
- ❖Federal government attempts to interfere with state-level certification and vote counting pose the greatest risk.
- ❖Republicans will continue aggressive gerrymandering, potentially aided by Supreme Court rulings weakening the Voting Rights Act.
- ❖Trump aims to install loyalists in local election administration and use federal agencies to pressure states and interfere with voter data.
- ❖Widespread voting machine tampering is difficult due to diffuse systems and audit processes, but localized issues remain a concern.
- ❖Federal law enforcement could create voting inconveniences (e.g., blocking streets) in specific precincts, not just targeting immigrants.
- ❖Changes to USPS rules regarding mail-in ballot postmarks could lead to mass disqualification of votes.
- ❖Republicans' reliance on election interference stems from their unpopular policies and inability to win on merit.
Insights
1Election Denialism as Core Ideology
Marc Elias states that 'election denialism is the only consistent ideology within the MAGA movement.' Donald Trump lacks a coherent foreign policy or worldview, instead prioritizing his own interests, which consistently involves undermining election results. This is evidenced by his attempts to link the Venezuela situation to the 'big lie' of 2020 election fraud.
Trump's interviews and social media posts since Friday night, reposting suggestions that Venezuela was involved in rigging the 2020 election, and administration officials suggesting plea deals for Maduro based on admitting election interference.
2Three Pillars of 2026 Election Interference
Elias predicts the 2026 elections will be 'worse or less free and fair' than previous years due to three main factors: 1) The federal government (Trump, DOJ, military/law enforcement) interfering in ways inconsistent with the Constitution. 2) Right-wing vigilante organizations acting with impunity. 3) Emboldened Republican state actors passing new voter suppression laws and the RNC acting as a 'voter suppression war machine.'
Historical shift in Republican states making voting harder since 2021, post-2020 election.
3Federal Interference in State Elections: The Greatest Risk
Elias identifies federal government interference in state election administration and vote counting as 'probably the greatest risk.' Despite the US system traditionally granting states primary control over elections, the Trump administration has already issued executive orders attempting to take over aspects of state vote counting and filed 22 lawsuits against Democratic and purple states to access sensitive voter data. Trump views states as his 'agent' in counting votes, implying they must follow his directives.
Trump's executive order on state vote counting (currently being challenged in court), 22 DOJ lawsuits against states for voter data, Trump's social media posts claiming states act as his agent.
4Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act
Republicans are actively redrawing district lines ('gerrymandering on steroids') in states like Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina, with Florida expected to follow. A major concern is a pending Supreme Court decision on Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, which prohibits diminishing minority voting strength. Elias believes it's 'hard to see the math to get to five votes' to uphold Section 2, potentially allowing Southern states to engage in a 'massive wave of redistricting' under the guise of partisan gerrymandering, effectively targeting Black Democrats.
Redistricting efforts in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina; anticipated actions in Florida; Supreme Court's historical stance on the Voting Rights Act, and oral arguments.
5Voter Suppression Through Inconvenience
Voter suppression does not require dramatic acts like arrests or armed guards at polls. It can be 'really effective by making voting really inconvenient at scale.' This includes tactics like federal law enforcement blocking streets to polling places, creating two-hour delays, or making parking impossible. Changes to USPS rules, allowing mail-in ballots to be postmarked on the day they are processed rather than mailed, could also lead to the disqualification of 'tons of votes' that were cast on time but processed late.
Examples of blocking streets, long wait times, lack of parking, and recent USPS rule changes affecting mail-in ballot processing.
Lessons
- Register to vote and double-check your registration status to ensure it hasn't been canceled or challenged. Understand your polling place, vote-by-mail options, and deadlines.
- Pay close attention to subtle changes in voting processes, such as new USPS rules for mail-in ballots or local election administration shifts, as these can significantly impact vote counting.
- Pressure Democratic governors and legislators in blue states to proactively improve voting systems and implement measures that make it harder for federal or state actors to interfere with elections.
Quotes
"Voter suppression doesn't have to be the most dramatic thing... It can be really effective by making voting really inconvenient at scale."
"Election denialism is the only consistent ideology within the MAGA movement."
"The question is, are we going to have free and fair elections? Because, you know, dictators love elections. They just love rigging elections."
"It doesn't matter how many people vote, it's who counts the votes."
"Donald Trump has shown himself without any floor to how low he will go. Like there is nothing he won't do, nothing he won't say that will violate every law and every norm. And that's what we have to be prepared for."
"If the government is actively blocking people from being able to vote... it doesn't serve you. It might serve your team if that's what you see it as, but it disrespects and disenfranchises the voter."
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