Pepe Escobar: Iran Just Served the U.S. an “Eviction Notice” — What Happens Next?

Iran has presented a list of conditions for a ceasefire and end to the war, including the complete withdrawal of US military bases from West Asia, an end to all sanctions, and full autonomy over its civilian nuclear program without inspections. These terms are non-negotiable for Iran.

We hear it from Arashi, from Khalibah, from everybody in the Majley, anybody speaking. No, that's it. And our list of conditions, it's what I listed in this column that you referred to, the eviction notice to the Americans. That's it. And this is shared by the invisible new Ayatah Mustaba K new leader Ayatala Mustaba Kam the political leadership the majista the whole of the RGC all the military and the population of Iran as well that's it and if you don't okay this is your eviction you don't want it okay the war continues and the war will end when we say so we Iran not the. (14:20) Look, if you don't follow our point by point list of demands, there's no ceasefire and there's no end to this war. And the list of demands is quite something. It includes everything. end of sanctions, reparations to Iran. Um, Iran continues with its civilian nuclear program the way he wants to do it with no inspections, nothing. (24:40) The United States out of all the military bases all across West Asia. Point number one, most important. Number two, end of all sanctions, literally. And number three, we continue with our nuclear uh uh program, civilian nuclear program the way we want it with no inspections whatsoever, etc. We decide how uh how we we want to expand our civilian nuclear program. So let's say these are the three main points. (37:55)

Iran has effectively privatized the Strait of Hormuz, implementing a four-tiered system for transit. China has free passage via a bilateral deal, some countries like Bangladesh can request free passage, nations connected to the US, Israel, or Europe are "verboten," and all others risk being "hit" if they cross without permission. This significantly disrupts global oil and gas flows.

There are four levels of transiting or not transiting in the street of hormones now which until a few days ago was an international water rate. the most important bottleneck in the world. So now there are four levels. First level, China. You can go back and forth any anytime you want. Anywhere you want to go, wherever you come from, going to China, no problem. Or if you're going back from China to refuel in in the Persian Gulf, no problem. Because there is a bilateral deal tan Beijing which was concluded last Thursday. (08:00) The straight of Hormuz now has been privatized. We run it. We managed and we decide who has free transit or not. So this is not going to change as well. (39:34)

The US is suffering "horrendous losses" in West Asia, with its military assets and radar systems degraded. Trump is seeking an "off-ramp" but any declaration of victory and withdrawal will expose a "strategic defeat" for the US, signaling the end of its hegemony in West Asia and globally. This conflict is accelerating a global economic collapse, particularly through energy market disruption.

There's absolutely no debate in American mainstream media of their horrendous losses, especially across West Asia and all their military bases, installations, CIA cells, acknowledged CIA cells or invisible CIA cells, hotels that are hosting US military personnel transcript from the bombed bases, you name it. (05:32) If he proclaims victory and leaves this means the strategic defeat will be crystal clear for the whole planet. will be the end of his presidency guaranteed. Uh the end of American Germany in West Asia, more than guaranteed that's already ongoing. And of course the end of a Germany globally because who can respect a superpower that gets into a war without planning it. (13:39) If this war goes on for another few weeks, it's the total collapse of the global economy. Period. (47:12)

Given the existential nature of the war and the perceived need for deterrence, Iran's new leadership under Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is likely to consider pursuing nuclear weapons, moving away from previous moral objections.

I think the the obvious path is that you built nuclear weapons because these are deterrence. You know the these are not meant to be used and nobody has used them since you know the last time the United States used them. These are guarantees for the security for the future of the country that nobody would attack you anymore. I think I think that is happening Pepe. I think that is happening as we talk because they saw the supreme leader of Iran for many years he said that these are against the human right you know against the humanity and all this concept which we know exists within Islam we we we know the morality of the argument but you have to accept the reality outside of Islam you see the reality outside you know you see the might makes Right? This is the reality of today's world and we that should be considered by their leadership in Iran. (01:00:47)