Trump's Poll Numbers Stink. Maybe a Two-Hour Speech Will Help.
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's approval ratings saw a substantial decline, dropping from 48-49% to 36-41% across various reputable polls within a year.
- ❖Support among political independents for Trump plummeted to 20-23%, indicating a total collapse with crucial swing voters.
- ❖Democrats hold a 10-point lead over Republicans (52% to 42%) in generic ballot polls, the widest margin in recent tracking.
- ❖Public dissatisfaction with Trump's economic performance is linked to tariffs, which voters dislike, and a failure to deliver the 'golden age' promised during his campaign.
- ❖Voters disapprove of the 'open cruelty' and mass deportation tactics of ICE, with 14-16% of Trump supporters expressing disappointment on immigration.
- ❖The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) faced a partial shutdown because the White House refused to accept modest Democratic demands for increased accountability and rule-of-law standards for ICE.
- ❖Trump's foreign policy actions, such as the Venezuela operation and potential conflict with Iran, have not boosted his public approval, as there is little public appetite for foreign interventions.
Insights
1Dramatic Decline in Trump's Approval Ratings
Within a year, Donald Trump's approval ratings significantly eroded. The New York Times average showed a drop from 49% to 41% approval, while CNN reported a decline from 48% to 36%. G. Elliot Morris's poll placed him at 37% approval. This represents a loss of 15-25% of his initial supporters.
New York Times average of polls, CNN poll, G. Elliot Morris poll.
2Collapse of Support Among Independents
Trump's approval among political independents fell to a strikingly low 20% in G. Elliot Morris's data, with CNN reporting a similar 23%. This indicates a near-total collapse of support among critical swing voters.
G. Elliot Morris poll, CNN poll.
3Democrats Lead in Generic Ballot
Generic ballot polls showed Democrats leading Republicans 52% to 42% among registered voters, a 10-point margin that was the widest recorded since tracking began. This suggests a broader shift in public sentiment beyond just presidential approval.
G. Elliot Morris poll.
4Public Dislikes Tariffs and Unfulfilled Economic Promises
Despite the economy not being 'terrible' (e.g., 2.2% growth, 2.7% inflation), public opinion on Trump's economic policies, especially tariffs, remained negative. Voters felt a disconnect between the 'golden age' promised during his campaign and the reality, leading to dissatisfaction even before the Supreme Court struck down some tariffs.
Discussion of economic numbers (), public sentiment on tariffs (), comparison to campaign rhetoric ().
5Widespread Disapproval of ICE's Tactics
Public sentiment turned against the aggressive and often 'cruel' tactics of ICE and Border Patrol, including mass deportations, unmasked agents, and operations near sensitive locations. Even some Trump supporters expressed disappointment with immigration enforcement, preferring a tough border stance without a mass deportation regime.
Discussion of ICE tactics (), G. Elliot Morris poll showing Trump supporters' disappointment (), Senator Rosen's statement ().
6DHS Funding Standoff Over ICE Reforms
The Department of Homeland Security faced a partial shutdown because the White House and Republicans refused to accept Democratic demands for basic rule-of-law standards for ICE, such as requiring agents to wear IDs, avoid blanket sweeps, and not operate in churches or schools. This inflexibility highlighted the administration's commitment to current ICE practices.
Discussion of DHS shutdown (), Democratic demands for ICE reforms ().
Quotes
"If you lose eight of your 49, you're losing what uh 15 16% of one in six basically of your supporters. That's kind of a lot actually if you think about it in a year, right?"
"Presidential approval, Trump's approval among political independents is just 20% in our data. That's astonishing. That's astonishing for the president. I mean, that's a total collapse among basically every really getable swing voter."
"The economy hasn't been terrible. It slowed from about 2.8% in 2024 to 2.2% growth I think in 2025. Inflation did tick down a tad... and yet here his numbers are going down. So I think it proves a that everything is not the economy."
"Just 32% of Americans now say that Trump has had the right priorities, while 68% say he hasn't paid enough attention to the country's most important problems."
"You know you can be tough on the border and not like a mass deportation regime. And that turns out to be where the public is and the more they've seen of ICE the more they disapprove."
Q&A
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