Seyed M. Marandi: Iran Opens Fire on American Fighter Jets
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US allegedly bombed two Iranian naval vessels, killing four soldiers in Iranian territorial waters, which Iran views as an unprovoked act.
- ❖Iran responded with missile fire, and a ship was struck off the coast of Oman, possibly in retaliation for US aggression.
- ❖Nuclear deal negotiations are stalled, with the final '5%' frozen due to mixed messages from the US and Israeli attempts to disrupt regional ceasefires.
- ❖Netanyahu is accused of intentionally wrecking ceasefires in Lebanon to expand the war, with Western media largely ignoring these actions.
- ❖Iran is demanding the immediate transfer of frozen assets (around $12-24 billion) from Qatar as a condition for any agreement, learning from past US 'dishonesty' with the JCPOA.
- ❖Iran plans to implement a 'fee system' for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining control over who transits the vital waterway.
- ❖Iran is actively pursuing a new 'collective security' architecture with Persian Gulf countries, aiming to reduce US influence in the region.
- ❖Iran believes the US and Israeli regimes are 'dying' and that the current economic crisis and global public opinion are accelerating their decline.
- ❖Iran will not include European nations in future negotiations, viewing them as lacking moral status and geopolitical weight.
- ❖The October 7th events are seen as a turning point, exposing the 'reality of Palestine' and making Abraham Accords normalization impossible for regional countries.
Insights
1US 'Unprovoked Attack' on Iranian Naval Vessels
The guest asserts that the US bombed two small Iranian naval vessels in Iranian territorial waters, killing four soldiers. This act is described as 'unprovoked' and not justified by US claims of mine-laying activities, as the vessels were not in a relevant area. This incident directly led to Iran's missile response.
The Americans bombed two naval vessels... murdered four soldiers... it was unprovoked and they were in Iranian territorial water.
2Iran's Strategic Leverage: Strait of Hormuz Control
Iran views its control over the Strait of Hormuz as its most significant leverage in negotiations. If the US fails to uphold its commitments, Iran is prepared to close the Strait, which would devastate the global economy and the economies of Gulf states, forcing the US to comply.
The Iranians have the most important piece of leverage and that is the straight of Hormuz and if the American side does not abide by its commitments then the trade is close.
3Lessons from JCPOA: No More Loopholes
Iran learned from the JCPOA experience that the US (under Obama) exploited loopholes and failed to implement its commitments after Iran had fulfilled its own. Consequently, in current negotiations, Iran demands upfront financial transfers and guarantees against loopholes, refusing to be the first to implement its side of the bargain without reciprocal action.
The mistake that we made... was that we... had certain commitments and the Americans had some commitments and the Iranians carried out their commitments and then the Americans wouldn't do they wouldn't carry out theirs... This time around, the Iranians are not willing to do that. So at the very start they have to receive that that that money.
4Netanyahu's Role in Wrecking Ceasefires
Netanyahu is accused of deliberately sabotaging regional ceasefires, particularly in Lebanon, by carpet bombing cities and killing civilians. This is seen as an attempt to expand the war and disrupt peace negotiations, a tactic previously used to prevent the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Netanyahu wants to expand the war in Lebanon to carry out air strikes on civilian targets at a much greater... extensively in order to wreck the ceasefire... as soon as that ceasefire agreement was declared, Netanyahu began carpet bombing cities in Beirut. He killed hundreds of people in in 10 minutes.
5Iran's Push for Regional Collective Security
Iran is actively promoting a new 'collective security' architecture among Persian Gulf countries, inviting them to cooperate and move away from US influence. This initiative is supported by the Supreme Leader's messages and diplomatic trips, aiming to enhance regional safety and security.
What Iran has been proposing is that the countries in the Persian Gulf region together they establish their own security a collective security.
6Decline of US Empire and Israeli Regime
The guest argues that both the US empire and the Israeli regime are 'dying,' with their decline accelerated by recent events and global public opinion. The economic crisis, increasing international disgust for Israeli actions, and growing political awareness among youth are cited as key factors.
The Israeli regime is dying just like the US empire is dying... This economic crisis is only going to make things worse for the United States. Each day that goes by is going to weaken it further. And this the same is true with the Israeli regime.
Bottom Line
The current global economic crisis, exacerbated by the Strait of Hormuz situation, is forcing countries to re-evaluate their alliances and dependence on the US, potentially leading to a significant geopolitical realignment in the Persian Gulf.
This creates an opportunity for Iran to strengthen its regional ties and establish a new collective security framework, diminishing US influence and potentially altering global trade routes and energy markets.
For non-aligned nations, this shift could present new trade and investment opportunities with Iran and its regional partners, bypassing traditional Western-dominated systems.
The perceived 'dishonesty' of the US in past agreements (like the JCPOA) makes future diplomatic resolutions significantly harder, as Iran now demands immediate, tangible concessions before fulfilling its own obligations.
This changes the fundamental dynamics of negotiation, requiring the US to offer more upfront guarantees and potentially limiting its ability to use 'loopholes' or delay commitments, making any deal more costly or difficult to achieve.
For third-party mediators or guarantors, there's an increased need for robust, legally binding mechanisms and transparent financial transfers to build trust and ensure compliance, potentially creating a market for new forms of international arbitration or escrow services.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for any changes in shipping regulations or fees, as Iran's control over this waterway is a critical leverage point in ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Analyze the evolving diplomatic landscape in the Persian Gulf, particularly Iran's efforts to build collective security with regional neighbors, which could signal a shift in alliances and trade patterns.
- Consider the implications of Iran's 'lessons learned' from past nuclear deals; future negotiations will likely demand immediate, verifiable concessions, impacting the feasibility and structure of international agreements.
Notable Moments
The host highlights Iran's IRGC shooting down an MQ9 drone and firing at an RQ4 drone and F35 fighter jet, suggesting a test of Iranian air defense capabilities.
This demonstrates Iran's active defense posture and willingness to engage advanced US military assets, indicating a heightened state of readiness and potential for direct conflict.
Professor Marandi criticizes Western journalists for their 'shameful' lack of credibility and humanity, particularly regarding reporting on Gaza and Lebanon.
This reflects a deep distrust of mainstream Western media narratives from an Iranian perspective, highlighting the significant information asymmetry and propaganda challenges in understanding the conflict.
The discussion mentions Robert Kagan's article in The Atlantic, which reportedly frames the 'war on Iran' as the 'greatest defeat' for the United States in its history.
This reference, if accurate, indicates a significant internal US debate about the efficacy and consequences of its Iran policy, suggesting a potential shift in strategic thinking within American foreign policy circles.
Quotes
"The Americans bombed two naval vessels, small naval vessels. I think two were on each and they murdered four soldiers for guards and it was unprovoked and they were in Iranian territorial water and there's no excuse."
"Netanyahu wants to expand the war in Lebanon to carry out air strikes on civilian targets at a much greater um much more extensively in order to wreck the ceasefire."
"What Iran has been proposing is that the countries in the Persian Gulf region together they establish um their own security uh a collective security."
"The Iranians have the most important piece of leverage and that is the straight of Hormuz and if the American side does not abide by its commitments then the trade is close."
"The Israeli regime is dying just like the US empire is dying."
Q&A
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