'You Don't Stand Up To Evil, You LOSE!' Iran Ground Invasion | Feat John Kiriakou & Rudy Giuliani
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US military objectives in Iran include ending their nuclear, ballistic missile, and proxy programs, which were not achieved through negotiation.
- ❖Iran has proven a 'clever adversary,' shifting its strategy to 'economic decapitation' by threatening the Straits of Hormuz.
- ❖A ground invasion of Iran to seize deeply buried uranium is considered 'extraordinarily dangerous' and requires massive troop numbers, unlike the current deployment.
- ❖President Trump's war strategy is criticized for unclear, changing objectives and for being unpopular domestically, potentially impacting midterm elections.
- ❖Rudy Giuliani asserts that Iran is an 'irrational regime' that 'wants to die,' making mutually assured destruction (MAD) an invalid deterrent.
- ❖General Sir Richard Sheriff believes the initial attack was launched without considering consequences, leading to global destabilization and potential World War III escalation.
- ❖The 'special relationship' between the US and UK is deemed a 'fantasy' by General Sheriff, while General Kimmit insists it still exists through shared military and intelligence ties.
- ❖John Kiriakou suggests President Trump was 'duped' by Benjamin Netanyahu into the war, similar to past Israeli attempts to solicit US bombing of Iran.
- ❖Aman Dean argues Iran's regional expansion and threat to the dollar's reserve currency status necessitated intervention, framing it as a defense of the global financial order.
Insights
1Contrasting Views on US War Objectives and Strategy
General Mark Kimmit states the US entered negotiations to end Iran's nuclear, ballistic missile, and proxy programs, and moved to the battlefield when diplomacy failed. He believes these remain core interests and off-ramps should not be discussed. Piers Morgan, however, highlights Trump's campaign promise against new Middle East wars and questions the clarity and consistency of objectives, pointing to reports of potential ground operations and economic disruption.
General Kimmit: 'We went into negotiations with the Iranians to do three things. End their nuclear program, end their ballistic missile program, end their proxy program. We were unable to achieve that at the bargaining table. So, we've taken it to the battlefield.' () Piers Morgan: 'The objectives are unclear and ever changing.' ()
2Iran's 'Clever' Economic Counter-Strategy
General Mark Kimmit and Piers Morgan acknowledge Iran's effective counter-strategy. While the US and Israel pursued regime decapitation and military strikes, Iran responded by threatening and disrupting the Straits of Hormuz, causing significant economic damage globally by holding up oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments. This 'economic decapitation' is seen as a win for Iran in the economic war.
General Kimmit: 'Unfortunately, Iran has proven to be a pretty clever adversary. The Iranian the Israelis went for regime decapitation. The Americans went for u blow up as much stuff as possible. And the Iranians kind of did a jiu-jitsu move and said, 'Okay, we're going to move down to the straight hormuz. If you want to do regime decapitation, we're going to do economic decapitation.'' () Piers Morgan: 'I also see the Iranians winning the economic war quite easily and quite devastatingly.' ()
3Extreme Danger of a Ground Invasion in Iran
Multiple guests, including General Mark Kimmit, warn that a ground invasion to secure deeply buried enriched uranium would be 'extraordinarily dangerous.' Such an operation would require hundreds of thousands of troops, far more than currently deployed, and faces significant challenges given Iran's cunning defense and the regime's perceived willingness to die for its cause. The 1979 failed hostage rescue mission in Tehran is cited as a historical precedent for the difficulty of such operations.
General Kimmit: 'Extraordinarily dangerous... You can't do that kind of invasion with a couple of thousand troops. You need a couple of hundred thousand troops.' () 'The 1979 mission to try to get the American hostages out of Thran... that was an absolute goat.' ()
4The 'Irrational Regime' Argument for Intervention
Rudy Giuliani argues that Iran is an 'irrational regime' whose leaders 'want to die,' making the concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD) ineffective. He believes this irrationality, coupled with Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and history of killing Americans, necessitates intervention. Doran Spielman echoes this, stating that not standing up to such evil guarantees a loss, drawing a parallel to the Passover story.
Rudy Giuliani: 'We can't live with nuclear weapons in the hands of an irrational regime. This is not Putin. This is not Xjun Ming. They're terrible people. They're very evil, but they're not irrational. They don't want to die.' () Doran Spielman: 'There's never been a guarantee to defeat evil, but there is one guarantee. If you don't stand up to it, you're going to lose.' ()
5US Intervention Driven by Israeli Pressure and Alleged 'Duping'
John Kiriakou, a former CIA officer, contends that US presidents consistently rejected Israeli requests to bomb Iran until President Trump. He suggests Trump was 'duped' by Benjamin Netanyahu into the current conflict. Piers Morgan reinforces this by citing former Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's comments about Netanyahu attempting similar actions with Obama and Biden, who refused to join, leading Israel not to attack.
John Kiriakou: 'Every single time an Israeli prime minister came to Washington... the Israelis would say, 'Please help us bomb Iran.' And the presidents always said no. until this one. I think that President Trump was duped by Benjamin Netanyahu.' () Piers Morgan: 'Benjamin Netanyahu told Trump, 'We're going to attack.' We now know from Anthony Blinken... that he tried the same thing with Obama and Biden... and then guess what? Israel didn't attack.' ()
6Geopolitical and Economic Hegemony as a Driver for Conflict
Aman Dean argues that Iran's expansion across the Middle East, a region containing over 50% of the world's traditional energy reserves, poses a direct threat to the global established financial order backed by the US dollar. He asserts that allowing Iran to become a regional hegemon and potentially trade oil in other currencies would undermine the US dollar's reserve status, making intervention necessary to protect America's global financial system.
Aman Dean: 'Iran was expanding across the region, a region that actually contain more than 50 plus% of the world's traditional energy reserves. And that is a threat to the global established financial order that is backed by the dollar as a reserve currency. You cannot allow Iran to become the hgeimon of the entire region and then Iran can do whatever it wants when it comes to charging you know for the you know for the petrol with other currencies undermining the status of the US dollar as a uh the uh reserve currency of the world.' ()
Lessons
- Critically evaluate the stated objectives of military interventions, recognizing that they can be unclear or change over time, and consider the potential for economic warfare as a primary tactic.
- Be aware of the domestic political pressures influencing foreign policy decisions, such as upcoming elections and public opinion, which can shape a leader's approach to conflict.
- Question the 'imminent threat' narrative in geopolitical conflicts, seeking concrete evidence and considering alternative motivations for military action, including pressure from allies.
Quotes
"There's never been a guarantee to defeat evil, but there is one guarantee. If you don't stand up to it, you're going to lose."
"Unfortunately, Iran has proven to be a pretty clever adversary."
"The Iranians kind of did a jiu-jitsu move and said, 'Okay, we're going to move down to the straight hormuz. If you want to do regime decapitation, we're going to do economic decapitation.'"
"Deployments don't lie, narratives do. The rest is theater for markets, publics, and gullible media."
"I think that President Trump was duped by Benjamin Netanyahu and now we're in a war that that is not ours from the beginning and that we cannot win."
"We can't live with nuclear weapons in the hands of an irrational regime... They don't want to die. The Ayatollah and the people around him rationally displaying the fact that they do want to die."
"The special relationship is a fantasy put about if I may say so peers by the media and politicians is it died if it ever was one. It died for in 1956 at Sueis and it's crazy to go on banging on about the special relationship."
Q&A
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