Bulwark Takes
Bulwark Takes
March 6, 2026

Did Stephen Miller Just Pull Off a Palace Coup? | Secret Podcast Preview

Quick Read

This episode unpacks the dramatic firing of Kristi Noem, a 'palace coup' theory involving Stephen Miller, and a critical analysis of the US's strategic missteps in the war with Iran, contrasting it with Iran's more sophisticated approach.
Kristi Noem's firing was allegedly triggered by Trump's perception of her self-enrichment without his 'cut,' not her corruption.
A 'conspiracy theory' suggests Stephen Miller engineered Noem's removal to install a more compliant figure, Markwayne Mullin, for his immigration agenda.
The US approach to the Iran war is criticized as strategically naive, focusing on explosions while Iran leverages logistics, political will, and economic vulnerabilities.

Summary

JVL and Sarah Longwell discuss the recent firing of Kristi Noem, framing it as a 'mafia rules' scenario where Trump was upset about not getting his 'taste' from Noem's self-promotional spending. JVL presents a 'conspiracy theory' that Stephen Miller orchestrated Noem's downfall to replace her with a more pliable figure, Markwayne Mullin, to further his immigration agenda. The conversation then shifts to the war in Iran, where JVL argues that the US (specifically the Trump administration) is playing 'checkers' by focusing on explosions, while Iran is playing 'chess' by understanding logistics, political will, and economic leverage. They highlight how Iran has successfully widened the war by impacting maritime insurance and global supply chains, exposing the US's lack of contingency planning and strategic foresight. The hosts express concern that US leadership is 'moronic' and being outmaneuvered, predicting that Trump will eventually declare a 'win' and exit the conflict, leaving a mess for others to clean up, without facing personal accountability.
This analysis provides a critical lens on the inner workings of political power, suggesting that high-profile firings can be orchestrated power plays rather than merit-based decisions. It also offers a stark critique of US foreign policy strategy, arguing that a focus on military might without understanding broader economic and political dynamics can lead to strategic failure and global instability. The discussion underscores the potential for leaders to prioritize personal narratives over tangible outcomes, with significant downstream effects on the economy and international relations.

Takeaways

  • Kristi Noem's firing was reportedly due to Trump's anger over her using public funds for self-promotion without him 'getting his taste,' aligning with 'mafia rules' where the unforgivable sin is keeping a cut.
  • JVL theorizes Stephen Miller orchestrated Noem's dismissal, using Senator Kennedy to expose her perjury fears, to replace her with Markwayne Mullin, who is seen as more aligned with Miller's hardline immigration goals.
  • The US is criticized for a 'checkers' approach in the Iran war, focusing on military explosions, while Iran employs a 'chess' strategy by targeting logistics and political will, such as disrupting maritime insurance in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran's strategy is seen as superior because it understands the US's low tolerance for casualties, prolonged conflict, and rising oil prices, aiming for the US to declare victory and leave.
  • The war's downstream effects include significant jumps in gas prices, disrupted fertilizer component shipments, and the shutdown of major industrial operations like Qatar's aluminum smelter, leading to inflation and economic slowdown.
  • Trump is perceived as uniquely capable of declaring victory and withdrawing from the war, regardless of actual outcomes or regional instability, due to his perceived lack of personal accountability.
  • The hosts express concern that US leadership is 'moronic' and lacks a clear plan or objectives for the war, contrasting with Iran's more defined goal of regime survival.

Insights

1Kristi Noem's Firing: A 'Mafia Rules' Scenario

Kristi Noem's firing was not primarily due to her corruption or unconstitutional actions, but rather because Trump perceived she was making money and gaining name recognition from public funds without him 'getting his taste.' This aligns with a 'mafia rules' dynamic where the leader's cut is paramount.

Sarah Longwell states, 'Trump's objection was that Christy Gnome said... Trump knew about the $200 million that she had spent, which by the way, the the money was going to like pals of hers. But then more importantly, it was all about upping her name ID... it was that Trump was somehow set to approve of it which means that in in my estimation Trump must not have been getting his taste sufficiently.'

2Stephen Miller's Alleged 'Palace Coup' Against Noem

JVL presents a 'conspiracy theory' that Stephen Miller orchestrated Kristi Noem's firing. The theory suggests Miller used Senator Kennedy to ask a question that forced Noem to commit perjury or implicate Trump, thereby removing her to install Markwayne Mullin, who is seen as more aligned with Miller's hardline immigration agenda.

JVL states, 'My conspiracy theory here is that I believe this entire hit was a premeditated inside job being run by Steven Miller... I think that Kennedy, who asked the question, which supposedly got her fired, was probably set up to ask that question... This was a Steven Miller op to get rid of her because she'd become a problematic to him and problematic for his continued project of getting rid of 20 million or 30 million or every brown person in America.'

3US vs. Iran: A Strategic Mismatch ('Checkers vs. Chess')

The US, under the Trump administration, is perceived to be playing 'checkers' in the war with Iran, focusing on military explosions. In contrast, Iran is playing 'chess' by understanding that wars are won through logistics and political will, not just firepower. Iran has successfully widened the war by making maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz too dangerous for insurers, thereby disrupting global trade without direct military closure.

JVL explains, 'My thesis is basically that we're playing checkers. The Trump administration is playing checkers and they're playing chess. The Trump administration's view seems to be look at all the explosions. We can win a war through explosions. And the Iranians seem to believe that uh wars are won through logistics and political will.' He cites the example of maritime insurers refusing to cover traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

4Economic Fallout from the Iran Conflict

The conflict in Iran is already causing significant economic disruptions, including sharp increases in gas prices, disruptions in fertilizer component shipments, and the shutdown of major industrial operations like Qatar's aluminum smelter. These downstream effects are expected to drive up inflation and slow the global economy, impacting Trump's 'affordability agenda.'

JVL notes, 'gas prices, we've had two of the biggest single day jumps in gas prices in American history over the last week... Shipments of of the raw components for fertilizers are like being totally disrupted... In Qatar, there's this huge aluminum smelting operation... They've had to shut their smelter down because they believe they aren't going to be able to secure the supplies of liquid natural gas needed to run it.'

Bottom Line

Trump's unique political immunity allows him to declare 'victory' and withdraw from the Iran conflict, regardless of the actual chaotic outcomes, without facing personal accountability.

So What?

This suggests that the US's foreign policy under Trump is less about achieving objective strategic goals and more about enabling a narrative of personal success, even if it leaves regional instability, economic damage, and worsened international relations.

Impact

Analysts and policymakers should anticipate and prepare for a scenario where a US withdrawal is framed as a 'win' despite significant negative consequences, requiring alternative strategies for managing post-conflict fallout and rebuilding alliances.

Key Concepts

Checkers vs. Chess

This model distinguishes between a simplistic, tactical approach (checkers) focused on immediate, visible actions like explosions in warfare, and a sophisticated, strategic approach (chess) that considers long-term consequences, logistics, political will, and economic leverage. The hosts apply this to the US (checkers) and Iran (chess) in the context of the ongoing conflict.

Mafia Rules of Power

This model describes a political environment where loyalty and 'kickbacks' (or a 'cut' of benefits) are paramount. The 'unforgivable sin' is not corruption itself, but rather engaging in self-enrichment or power plays without the approval or direct benefit of the top leader, leading to swift and humiliating retribution.

Lessons

  • When analyzing political firings, look beyond stated reasons to identify underlying power struggles, financial motivations, and the strategic objectives of key figures like Stephen Miller.
  • Evaluate geopolitical conflicts not just through military actions, but also through their impact on global logistics, supply chains, and economic indicators like insurance rates and commodity prices.
  • Recognize that political leaders may prioritize narrative control and personal declarations of 'victory' over tangible, long-term strategic outcomes, and plan for the potential consequences of such approaches.

Notable Moments

The Bulwark community raised over $150,000 for Second Harvest Heartland, with $96,000 donated in a single day after an email update.

This highlights the significant philanthropic power and engagement of the podcast's community, demonstrating their ability to mobilize substantial financial support for charitable causes, particularly those impacted by current events like the 'ice invasion' (likely a misstatement for a local crisis).

Quotes

"

"It's not the corruption, it's when you don't get your peace. When someone keeps your peace from you, that's when you're screwed. And so this was like straight up mafia rules."

JVL
"

"My conspiracy theory here is that I believe this entire hit was a premeditated inside job being run by Steven Miller."

JVL
"

"We're playing checkers. The Trump administration is playing checkers and they're playing chess. The Trump administration's view seems to be look at all the explosions. We can win a war through explosions. And the Iranians seem to believe that uh wars are won through logistics and political will."

JVL
"

"Trump would knock those things over, smash them, and walk out the door and not feel the slightest bit of compunction about the damage that he'd caused."

Sarah Longwell
"

"We are being outthought by a bunch of guys who basically are from the medieval ages who are terrorists and like spend all their time in bunkers and they're the smarter ones than our leadership. Great. That's good feeling. America."

JVL

Q&A

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