Trump’s Polls Are Slipping—So Why Does He Feel More Dangerous Than Ever?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's approval ratings have stabilized at a low plateau (high 30s/low 40s), with economic sentiment being the primary driver of public dissatisfaction.
- ❖The administration's aggressive foreign policy (e.g., 'Greenland' initiative, tariffs on Europe/Canada) and domestic actions (e.g., ICE deployment in Minneapolis) are widely unpopular and are not seen as distractions by the public.
- ❖These policies are actively weakening US alliances, pushing traditional partners like Canada and European nations into closer economic and strategic ties with China, directly counteracting US geopolitical objectives.
- ❖The perceived 'clownishness' of some policies is, in fact, serious governance that is creating a durable 'iron wall of opposition' among mainstream voters, potentially impacting future elections.
Insights
1Stable Low Approval Driven by Economic Sentiment
Trump's approval ratings have settled into a stable, low range (high 30s to low 40s) across most polls. This decline is primarily attributed to widespread negative economic sentiment, with only three in ten Americans believing the economy is in good shape and only four in ten expecting improvement in the next year. This economic dissatisfaction outweighs public reaction to other 'outrages.'
Andrew Egger notes Trump is 'stable and really low... in the high 30s or the very low 40s pretty much across the board in most polls.' He adds that 'really really really bad economic sentiment kind of across the board' is driving 'the real nosedive that his popularity has taken even more so than all of the other outrages.'
2Authoritarian Policies are Real, Not Distractions
The administration's controversial actions, such as the push to acquire Greenland, aggressive tariffs, and the deployment of ICE forces in Minneapolis, are not mere 'shiny objects' or distractions. These are concrete policy initiatives that reflect Trump's 'grasping maximalist' approach to power and his desire to dominate, regardless of public opinion or strategic rationale.
Crystal states, 'the authoritarian project continues and if even accelerates.' Egger emphasizes, 'it doesn't mean he doesn't mean it. He's really trying to do it.' He adds that Trump's obsession with Greenland is 'all of a piece with the way he does everything. It's like all of these sorts of little like strategic objectives... to rationalize Trump's just sort of like grasping maximalist I should get more control than I currently have.'
3US Policies Inadvertently Empower China
Trump's aggressive trade wars and attempts to acquire Greenland, particularly through tariffs on European and Canadian allies, are pushing these nations into closer economic and strategic cooperation with China. This undermines years of US diplomatic effort to build a united front against China's economic and geopolitical influence, effectively helping China by alienating US partners.
Egger argues that by 'starting this trade war, by going after Europe, by going after Canada, we are pushing them completely into the arms of China.' Crystal corroborates, citing a new 'strategic partnership' between Canada and China and European nations considering China as a more stable trading partner than the US.
4Minneapolis ICE Deployment Solidifies Opposition
The deployment of ICE forces in Minneapolis, particularly the widely seen video of an ICE agent shooting a person, has been a significant turning point. This action, framed by the administration with a pretext that failed to resonate, has created a strong 'iron wall of opposition' among a broad segment of normal people who recoil from such state brutality, making it harder for Trump to recover support for future elections.
Egger states, 'this whole Minneapolis ordeal has shown is that he is not doing that at all... this is a story that really did break through.' He notes 75% of poll respondents saw the video and 'they do not have the narrative at all.' This creates an 'iron wall of opposition to what's going on around like 60% of the country who are not going to get wooed back.'
Bottom Line
Trump's 'clownishness' and 'idiocy' in foreign policy are not just embarrassing but are actively detrimental to US strategic interests, inadvertently strengthening rivals like China by alienating key allies.
This suggests that even seemingly nonsensical or impulsive actions by the US administration have profound and counterproductive geopolitical consequences, leading to a realignment of global trade and alliances.
Nations seeking stable trade relationships and a counter-balance to US unpredictability may find new opportunities for cooperation with China, potentially accelerating China's global influence.
Lessons
- Monitor economic sentiment closely, as it appears to be a more significant driver of public opinion regarding the administration than specific policy 'outrages.'
- Recognize that seemingly performative or 'distracting' actions by the administration, such as the Greenland initiative or domestic force deployments, are often serious policy shifts with real-world consequences.
- Assess the long-term impact of US isolationist and protectionist policies on international alliances, noting how they can inadvertently benefit geopolitical rivals by pushing allies into new partnerships.
- Understand that escalating authoritarian actions, even if popular with a base, can create a broad and durable 'iron wall of opposition' among mainstream voters, influencing future electoral outcomes.
Notable Moments
Discussion on how Trump's 'Greenland' initiative and tariffs on Europe/Canada are pushing allies towards China, undermining years of US diplomatic effort.
This highlights a critical, self-defeating aspect of the administration's foreign policy, demonstrating how short-sighted actions can have significant, negative geopolitical repercussions and empower rivals.
Analysis of the Minneapolis ICE deployment as a 'naked fist of the state brutality and authoritarianism' that is creating an 'iron wall of opposition' among normal voters.
This moment underscores how domestic authoritarian actions, even if intended to rally a base, can deeply alienate a broader electorate and solidify opposition, impacting future political stability and electoral prospects.
Quotes
"He is stable and really low. Like like we have just we have hit this kind of new plateau for him where he's in the high 30s or the very low 40s pretty much across the board in most polls."
"By starting this trade war, by going after Europe, by going after Canada, we are pushing them completely into the arms of China."
"It is creating this like iron wall of of opposition to what's going on around like 60% of the country."
Q&A
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