BREAKING: Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz; Delusional Leavitt Presser
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Caroline Levit's press conference presented an 'over-the-top mission accomplished' narrative regarding the Iran ceasefire, despite ongoing firing and reports of the Strait of Hormuz being closed.
- ❖Iran's state media reported the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, while the White House claimed an 'uptick in traffic' and called public reports 'false'.
- ❖Iran is reportedly telling ships in the Strait they need approval from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, directly contradicting White House claims of free passage.
- ❖President Trump suggested a 'joint US-Iran tolling situation' for the Strait of Hormuz, where the US would also 'get a little bit of that bribe money,' a concept the hosts deemed 'insane' and a departure from international law.
- ❖Israel's continued strikes in Lebanon, which Iran considers a violation, further imperil the fragile ceasefire, highlighting a misalignment of objectives between the US and Israel.
- ❖The hosts argue Trump's prior threat of 'destroying Iran's civilization' was a bluff, and Iran called it, forcing the US to seek a 'face-saving fake ceasefire'.
- ❖The White House press secretary, when asked about Trump's 'genocide' threat, avoided defending it directly, instead pointing to 'actions' and accusing the reporter of insult.
- ❖Caroline Levit confirmed President Trump is 'considering' withdrawing from NATO, a statement made just before a meeting with NATO's Secretary General.
Insights
1White House 'Delusional' on Ceasefire Success
The hosts characterize Caroline Levit's press conference as presenting a 'delusional' and 'over-the-top mission accomplished' narrative regarding the Iran ceasefire. They point out that reports of continued firing and Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly contradict the White House's celebratory tone.
Levit's remarks sounded like 'the day after the actual signing of a conflict ending treaty,' despite 'firing continues to happen among all parties other than the United States.' ()
2Strait of Hormuz Remains Under Iranian Control
Despite the White House's assertion that the Strait of Hormuz is open and experiencing an 'uptick of traffic,' the hosts present evidence that Iran is actively controlling passage. They highlight that Iran's public messaging to ships contradicts the private assurances the US claims to have received.
Iranian state media reported the closure of the Strait (), and Iran is 'communicating directly to the ships that are currently stuck in the straight of Hormuz saying you still need to abide by the pre-existing arrangement where you need to get the direct approval of the Iranian revolutionary guard corps or we may blow up your boat.' ()
3Trump Floats Joint US-Iran Tolls on Strait
President Trump reportedly suggested a 'joint US-Iran tolling situation' for the Strait of Hormuz, where the US would also 'get a little bit of that bribe money.' This idea is seen as a radical departure from US policy and international law, which designates the Strait as an open international waterway.
Trump said 'what we're looking into is sort of like a joint US Iran tolling situation where where, you know, we we we get a little bit of that bribe money, too, for all of the oil tankers that are moving through this international waterway.' ()
4Israel's Actions Undermine Ceasefire
Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, specifically large strikes against Hezbollah, are seen by Iran as a violation of the ceasefire. This creates a critical misalignment, as the US claims its ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon, while Iran uses it as justification for its own actions, like re-closing the Strait.
Lebanon reported 'at least 112 people killed, hundreds of others wounded' from Israeli strikes (). 'Iran is accusing Israel of violating the conditional ceasefire announced by President Trump by continuing its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.' ()
5Trump's 'Genocide' Threat Was a Bluff
The hosts argue that President Trump's prior threat to 'destroy Iran's civilization' was a bluff that Iran called. This forced Trump to seek a quick, face-saving resolution, resulting in a fragile ceasefire that is already 'falling apart.'
Andrew Edgar states, 'Trump truly was bluffing. And then when when when Iran just kind of called the bluff, he was the one who freaked out. He was the one who went to Pakistan and was like, you got to you got to announce that there's some breakthrough in this.' ()
Bottom Line
The US, under the current administration, has 'in principle agreed to grant administrative control of this trade to Iran' for the Strait of Hormuz, a 'sea change' in international law.
This represents a monumental shift in international maritime policy, effectively ceding control of a critical global chokepoint to Iran, potentially setting a dangerous precedent for other strategic waterways and empowering Iran economically and militarily.
International legal scholars and geopolitical analysts should immediately examine the implications of this 'in principle' agreement on future international law, trade routes, and regional power dynamics. Businesses reliant on shipping through the Strait must reassess risk and potential costs.
The White House press secretary's confirmation that President Trump is 'considering' withdrawing from NATO, made just before a meeting with NATO's Secretary General, signals deep instability within the alliance.
This public statement, especially at such a critical juncture, could severely weaken NATO's deterrence capabilities, embolden adversaries, and force European allies to re-evaluate their defense strategies and potentially seek alternative security arrangements, leading to a fragmented global security landscape.
European defense industries and governments may see increased demand for independent military capabilities and regional security initiatives. Diplomats and strategists should prepare for potential shifts in alliances and a less predictable international order.
Lessons
- Monitor shipping and energy market reports closely for real-time updates on the Strait of Hormuz, as White House statements may not reflect the operational reality.
- Evaluate the long-term implications of potential Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz for global trade routes and energy security.
- Pay attention to the diverging interests between the US and Israel in the Middle East, as this misalignment could lead to further regional instability.
Notable Moments
Caroline Levit's press conference included an 'inexplicable thing' about an 'anti-AI cyberbullying porn bill' involving Melania Trump, wedged in before discussing the ceasefire.
This highlights the perceived disorganization and potentially misprioritized agenda of the White House press briefing, distracting from critical international security issues.
When asked 'Who is bombing Iran right now?' Caroline Levit replied, 'I'll have to go back and check with the national security team.'
This demonstrates a striking lack of immediate awareness or willingness to disclose information about ongoing military actions by the US or its allies, underscoring the administration's perceived detachment from the conflict's realities.
Quotes
"I just cannot believe how much she is spiking the football here. I can I could not believe that at a at a moment of such sort of like maximum uncertainty about the status of this ceasefire that they just signed..."
"Look, I'm up here at the podium. I'm talking to you people. I'm not you. You've probably heard more about that than me. I'm going to have to go talk to the National Security Council about that kind of stuff."
"We have seen an uptick of traffic in the straight today. Uh and I will reiterate the president's expectation and demand that the straight of Hermoose is reopened uh immediately, quickly and safely."
"We're going to be so much winning that people are going to come up to me and they're going to be begging me to lose because they'll be sick and tired of all the winning. ... I guess America was so sick and tired of winning that he finally decided to give us a clear loss."
Q&A
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