California Election Conspiracy Idiocy; Trump’s Crony Judges w/ David Dayen, Josh Orton | MR Live
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖California's election process, including postmarked ballots counted up to 7 days later and signature matching, is designed for fraud protection, not manipulation.
- ❖The New World Screwworm, eradicated in the U.S. since 1966, has reappeared in Texas due to the Trump administration's border policies and cuts to USDA's animal health inspection service.
- ❖The screworm outbreak threatens to exponentially increase already high beef prices, which are at their highest since the Korean War.
- ❖Government functions, even seemingly 'frivolous' research like studying fly mating habits, act as crucial insurance policies against unforeseen crises.
- ❖Democrats must prioritize structural reforms to the Supreme Court, such as jurisdiction stripping and expansion, to overcome filibusters and judicial obstruction.
- ❖Trump's judicial nominees are subjected to a political litmus test, refusing to acknowledge Biden's 2020 victory or the January 6th insurrection, highlighting a crisis of judicial independence.
- ❖The 'blue slip' norm, which allows home-state senators to veto judicial nominees, has been inconsistently applied, with Republicans discarding it when convenient while Democrats uphold it out of 'courtesy'.
- ❖Public opinion is largely against the Supreme Court's partisan rulings and conduct, making court reform a potentially viable campaign issue for Democrats.
Insights
1California Election Process: Fraud Protection, Not Conspiracy
California's ballot counting process is intentionally slow for two main reasons: ballots postmarked by election day are counted if they arrive up to 7 days later, and a rigorous signature matching process verifies each ballot against a signature on file. These measures are robust fraud protections, making Republican conspiracy theories about vote manipulation baseless.
Ballots postmarked by election day are counted up to 7 days later; signature matching is a key fraud protection. Los Angeles County's processing center is transparent, with live-streamed cameras and open observer loops. Polling data showed Democratic establishment wanted to face Spencer Pratt, not Nithya Raman, disproving a conspiracy to elevate Raman.
2New World Screwworm Outbreak: A Consequence of USDA Dismantling
The re-emergence of the New World Screwworm in Texas after 60 years is directly linked to the Trump administration's policies. They opened the border to live cattle imports from Mexico despite the known spread of the screworm and subsequently decimated USDA staff and monitoring programs, creating a critical vulnerability in the U.S. food supply chain.
The U.S. eradicated screworm in 1966 using sterile fly air drops. The Biden administration closed the border to live cattle from Mexico due to the screworm's northward movement, implementing testing protocols. The Trump administration, upon taking power in February 2025, reopened the border and significantly cut USDA staff and monitoring programs, leading to the first Texas cattle case last week.
3The Economic Impact of the Screwworm Crisis
The screworm outbreak is poised to exacerbate already high beef prices, which are currently at their highest since the Korean War. The cost of eradication and lost commerce from a major infestation could be astronomically higher than the estimated $2.5 billion annual cost in 1976 (in today's dollars) when the U.S. was merely preventing its re-entry.
Ground beef prices are at their highest since the Korean War. A 1976 report estimated the annual cost of screworm prevention at $732 million for livestock producers and $1.8 billion for the broader economy (in today's dollars), even without an active infestation in the U.S.
4Need for Structural Court Reform to Counter Republican Power
Democrats' inability to implement their agenda is rooted in structural impediments like the Supreme Court's power, the Senate filibuster, and the nullification of the Voting Rights Act. Republicans consistently prioritize solidifying their power through minoritarian systems, while Democrats often focus on policy issues without first addressing these foundational structures.
Republicans' Project 2025 aimed to entrench executive branch power, exemplified by the Schedule F executive order allowing the president to fire career employees and install loyalists. Wisconsin gerrymandering in 2010 required Democrats to win 58% of the vote for 51% of the state house control.
5Innovative Approaches to Supreme Court Reform
Beyond traditional ideas like term limits or court expansion, Congress has constitutional authority to implement 'jurisdiction stripping'—writing into laws which courts can review them, potentially bypassing the Supreme Court. Additionally, Congress can reinterpret statutes when the Supreme Court rules on statutory interpretation, effectively overturning judicial decisions.
Nicholas Bowie, a Harvard professor, advocated for jurisdiction stripping, citing its use in the Inflation Reduction Act and American Rescue Plan. The Constitution allows Congress to limit the court's jurisdiction. Congress can also reinterpret statutes to counter Supreme Court rulings on statutory interpretation.
6Trump's Judicial Litmus Test and Nominee Loyalty
Trump's judicial nominees are subjected to a strict political litmus test, requiring them to refuse to acknowledge Joe Biden's 2020 election victory, the January 6th insurrection as an attack on the Capitol, or that Trump cannot run for a third term. This demonstrates a demand for personal loyalty over judicial independence, eroding public trust in the judiciary.
Senator Blumenthal grilled nominees who would not state that Biden won the 2020 election or that January 6th was an attack on the Capitol. One nominee, now a sitting federal judge, responded to a question about January 6th by saying, 'I wasn't there.' Polling shows a majority of voters in nine Senate swing states assume Trump's Supreme Court nominees would be unqualified.
7The Blue Slip Norm: A Political Tool
The 'blue slip' is a Senate norm allowing home-state senators to effectively veto judicial nominees from their state. Republicans have historically disregarded this norm when convenient (e.g., under Obama), while Democrats have often upheld it out of a sense of 'courtesy,' leading to an imbalance in judicial appointments.
The blue slip is a Senate norm, not a rule, of courtesy. Republicans under Obama abused it to block judges. Senator Patrick Leahy reinstated it, aiming to show Democrats are 'better people,' but this has allowed Republicans to block Democratic nominees while their nominees are advanced.
Bottom Line
The political toxicity of January 6th and Trump's associated actions (like pardons) is far broader than just the MAGA base, impacting independent voters significantly and creating a potential vulnerability for Trump's judicial nominees.
This widespread disapproval of J6 and related issues means that judicial nominees who fail to acknowledge these facts are not just failing a 'litmus test' but are also politically radioactive, potentially alienating swing voters and even some Republicans.
Democrats can leverage this political toxicity by aggressively challenging Trump's judicial nominees on these issues, creating a new baseline for judicial independence and potentially blocking crony appointments, especially in competitive Senate races.
A Democratic senator's public statement that a Trump judicial nominee privately assured her of their independence from Trump's political litmus tests creates a crucial new baseline for future nominations.
If this nominee publicly confirms these assurances, it establishes a precedent that future nominees can and should declare independence from Trump's political demands. If the nominee equivocates, it exposes the senator's judgment and the nominee's lack of integrity.
This situation forces the Trump White House to either accept a nominee who publicly defies Trump's loyalty test (setting a precedent) or withdraw the nomination, either outcome serving to challenge Trump's control over judicial appointments.
The 'elite' Democratic legal circles, often composed of corporate law partners, exhibit a 'respect for power and money' and a 'resentment of the dirtiness of democracy,' hindering radical court reform efforts.
This internal resistance within the Democratic establishment means that even when there's public and political will for bold reforms, a significant segment of influential legal professionals may act as an impediment, prioritizing their 'club membership' and perceived meritocracy over fundamental democratic change.
Advocates for radical court reform need to directly challenge and expose this internal resistance, building a broader coalition that includes younger, more progressive legal professionals and grassroots movements to push past the establishment's comfort zone.
Key Concepts
Government as an Insurance Policy
Many government programs and research initiatives, even those seemingly 'frivolous' or obscure (like studying fly mating habits), function as long-term insurance policies. Their value becomes apparent only when a crisis emerges, preventing far greater economic and social costs. Undermining or defunding these 'insurance' functions, often through demagoguery, leaves society vulnerable.
Minoritarian Power Consolidation
This model describes how a political minority can entrench its power within a democratic system by manipulating structural elements (e.g., gerrymandering, filibuster, judicial appointments, Schedule F executive orders) to override the will of the majority. Republicans are framed as consistently employing this strategy, while Democrats are criticized for failing to address these structural impediments.
Lessons
- Call your Democratic senators, especially if they have previously voted to confirm Trump judges who failed the political litmus test, to express that you are watching their votes on judicial nominees.
- Support organizations like Demand Justice (demandjustice.org) that are actively working on court reform and preparing for potential Supreme Court vacancies and nominations.
- Educate yourself and others on the structural impediments to democracy, such as the filibuster and the Supreme Court's current composition, and advocate for reforms like jurisdiction stripping and court expansion.
Quotes
"The reason it's slow is a fraud protection measure and it's a way to protect against that stuff without disenfranchising so many people. That's what the Republicans don't like about it."
"For 60 years, we never had a case of new world screwworm in a cattle in Texas until last week. And the reason that it happened last week is that there was a fire break."
"Much of government is like an insurance policy. The return on investment that you get from studying the mating habits of a fly are seemingly frivolous until they're not."
"If you constantly are promising policies and then saying, 'Well, we can't do it because of the parliamentarian or we can't do it because of the filibuster or we can't do it because the Supreme Court said no,' that's pretty weak."
"If you can't run on process, then just do the process because you can't run against it either. So then just do the things that'll make your other promises actually act because it's toxic to your brand to keep promising things that you can't deliver on."
"Project 2025 was so radical that Trump had to distance himself from it. And my concern is that there's all these people from the establishment who are working on a Project 2029. Like Project 2029 can't have a Medicare buy-in as an option, right? This isn't just an amalgam of all the things that we've introduced before. If we're going to put together a Project 2029, it has to be radical."
"I'm done with there's no such thing as a neutral Supreme Court justice. They all have ideologies. Let's just be transparent about it and decide which ideology we would like to have in a justice."
"You both know better. You both have records of litigating and you both would expect more of nominees in your position because above all, a federal judge must be independent without fear or favor. And your fear apparently of Donald Trump... is disqualifying."
"The biggest liability of any Trump SCOTUS nom this year is that he was the one that nominated them. Like a majority of voters in the nine Senate swing states... assume that whoever Trump's nominates to the Supreme Court, if he nominates someone this year, will be unqualified."
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