Larry Johnson: The U.S. Is Now Directly Calling Iran (Vance’s Switzerland Bombshell)
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's admission of European support for US operations against Iran drew strong condemnation from Iran, framing it as complicity in an 'unlawful war'.
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz, now largely controlled by Iran, has seen a dramatic reduction in oil tanker traffic, primarily impacting Europe and the US.
- ❖Global heavy crude supply is down 20%, leading to a critical shortage for aviation and diesel fuel, with significant price spikes expected.
- ❖NATO Secretary General Rutte delivered an 'embarrassing' presentation to Donald Trump, crediting him for increased European defense spending and US job creation from European defense purchases.
- ❖BRICS and SCO nations are accelerating economic integration, with 26 additional banks joining China's CIPS payment system, challenging SWIFT.
- ❖Pakistan, despite perceived US influence, is independently driving a new Persian Gulf security architecture in collaboration with China.
- ❖A direct US-Iran military communication channel has been agreed upon, intended to prevent escalations, similar to a 'deconfliction' line used with Russia in Syria.
- ❖Iran plans to introduce charges for services in the Strait of Hormuz, potentially generating billions in annual revenue.
- ❖Israel's policy in the region is described as 'irrational' and self-destructive, with a disproportionate number of Lebanese casualties compared to Israeli civilians.
Insights
1NATO's Admission of Complicity in Iran War
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's public statements on Fox News, detailing European support for US combat operations against Iran (e.g., 500 US planes from Italian bases, Romanian airport usage for tankers), were interpreted by Iran as a 'clear and damning admission of NATO's active complicity in an unlawful war and war of aggression.' This significantly escalated tensions and led Iran to demand accountability from NATO and its member states.
Mark Rutte's statements on Fox News regarding European support for 'epic fury' operations, and the Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson's response calling it a 'clear and damning admission'.
2Iran's Dominance of the Strait of Hormuz and Global Oil Impact
Iran's IRGC has established total control over the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing traffic to about one-tenth of normal volume. This has led to a 20% shutdown of global heavy crude supply, which is critical for aviation and diesel fuel. While countries initially drew from strategic reserves, the sustained demand for aviation fuel from combat operations and the reduced supply mean a 'tremendous significant spike in prices' is imminent, exacerbating global inflation.
Larry Johnson's real-time observation of marinetra.com showing minimal shipping traffic, confirmation that 90-95% of current traffic goes to Asia, and the analysis of heavy crude supply and demand dynamics.
3The 'Trump Trillion' and NATO's Public Relations Strategy
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte delivered a highly performative presentation at the White House, using charts to credit Donald Trump for a 'Trump trillion' in increased European and Canadian defense spending since 2017. This display, described as 'sucking up,' aimed to appease Trump by emphasizing how European defense spending, much of which goes to US industrial output, creates American jobs and benefits the US economy, attributing these achievements directly to Trump's consistent pressure.
Rutte's presentation in the White House, detailing 'Trump 45 plus Trump 47' and '1.2 trillion' in extra defense spending, and '112,000 jobs' created by European defense purchases from the US.
4Emergence of BRICS/SCO as a Counter-Hegemonic Force
The BRICS and SCO blocs are rapidly integrating, particularly economically, challenging the US-led international order. Over the past six months, 26 additional banks have joined China's CIPS interbank payment system (an alternative to SWIFT), and Iranian oil is being sold in Chinese yuan, not US dollars. These organizations are also moving towards a new security architecture in the Persian Gulf, with Pakistan playing a leading role, signaling a decline in Western influence.
Discussion of the BRICS NSA meeting in New Delhi, the 26 banks joining CIPS, Iranian oil sales in yuan, and Pakistan's role in developing a new security architecture.
5Direct US-Iran Military Communication Channel for De-escalation
A significant outcome of the Switzerland talks was an agreement in principle between the US and Iran to establish a direct military communication channel. This 'hotline' is intended to prevent future escalations, similar to a deconfliction channel previously used between the US and Russia in Syria, where the US would pre-warn Russia of strike targets to avoid unintended casualties or confrontations.
JD Vance's report to UnHerd about the Switzerland talks and the agreement for a direct military communication channel, and Larry Johnson's example of its use at Al Udeid Air Force Base with Russia.
6Iran's Plan to Monetize Strait of Hormuz Control
Iran is seeking to generate billions of dollars in annual revenue by introducing charges for services in the Strait of Hormuz. This move positions Iran to play a greater role in managing the critical oil shipping route, potentially generating an estimated $40 billion annually, which would likely be split with Oman. The new mechanism will differentiate charges based on cargo type, with oil tankers likely facing higher fees.
Wall Street Journal article reporting Iran's plan to introduce charges for Strait of Hormuz services, with an estimated $40 billion annual revenue.
Bottom Line
The US military's dramatic logistics limitations, including a three-year resupply time for Tomahawk missiles and dependence on China for critical systems, were exposed during the war with Iran. This fundamentally undermines the US's ability to sustain prolonged conflicts without external dependencies.
This vulnerability means the US cannot easily engage in multiple, long-term military conflicts without severe strain on its supply chain and industrial base, making it less capable of projecting sustained power globally.
Nations seeking to challenge US military dominance can exploit these logistical weaknesses, while US allies may question the reliability of American support in extended engagements. For the US, it necessitates a drastic overhaul of its defense industrial base and supply chain resilience.
Pakistan, often perceived as a US 'lackey,' operates with significant independence, actively shaping a new Persian Gulf security architecture with China. Its military leadership, under General Asim Munir, is making autonomous decisions, defying US influence.
This challenges the conventional view of US control over its allies, particularly in strategically vital regions. It indicates a more complex, multipolar reality where nations prioritize their own interests and alliances, even if it means diverging from US directives.
Other nations in the region may be emboldened to pursue more independent foreign policies, reducing US leverage. For the US, it requires a shift from 'telling people what to do' to genuine diplomatic engagement and respect for sovereign interests.
Israel's current policies are described as 'irrational' and driven by emotion and religion, leading to self-destructive choices and significant casualties among its neighbors (e.g., Lebanese civilians). This approach is unsustainable and has historical precedents of forced withdrawals due to unacceptable losses.
This suggests that Israel's current military strategy is not based on pragmatic long-term goals but on short-term emotional or ideological imperatives, making a rational resolution difficult. It also implies that external pressure or internal breaking points (due to casualties) will eventually force a change.
For regional actors, understanding this 'irrationality' can inform strategies that exploit Israel's vulnerabilities or wait for its inevitable self-correction. For international mediators, it highlights the need for approaches that address underlying emotional and religious drivers, not just political or military ones.
Key Concepts
Logistics as the Key to Conflict
Larry Johnson emphasizes that logistics are paramount in any conflict. The US's dramatic logistics limitations, exposed during the war with Iran, and its dependence on China for critical military systems, highlight a fundamental vulnerability that cannot be quickly rectified. This model suggests that military power is constrained by the ability to sustain operations, not just by raw force.
Arrogance and Disrespect in Foreign Policy
The host and Larry Johnson discuss how the US's 'arrogance and disrespect' towards other nations, assuming they are 'lackeys' or 'vassals', often leads to miscalculations and unintended consequences. Countries like Pakistan, despite perceived US influence, operate independently and 'run circles' around US expectations, pursuing their own national interests.
The 'Show of Force' vs. Reality
This model describes how public displays of military force by the US (e.g., bombing runs) can be performative, designed to project strength while actual operations are de-escalated through back-channel communications. The example of the US informing Russia of Syrian strike targets in advance illustrates how 'tough' public actions can mask a pragmatic, de-escalatory reality behind the scenes.
Lessons
- Monitor global oil prices and supply chain indicators, particularly for heavy crude, as the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to cause significant inflation and energy shortages.
- Re-evaluate the stability and influence of the US-led international economic order, considering the rapid growth and integration of BRICS/SCO nations and their alternatives to Western financial systems.
- Analyze foreign policy statements and military actions with skepticism, recognizing that public 'shows of force' may mask behind-the-scenes de-escalation efforts and direct communication channels between adversaries.
Notable Moments
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's 'embarrassing' presentation to Donald Trump, crediting him for increased European defense spending and US jobs.
This moment highlights the performative nature of international diplomacy and the extent to which European leaders may go to appease powerful figures like Trump, even at the cost of perceived national dignity, to maintain alliances or secure political favor.
Quotes
"This is a clear and damning admission of NATO's active complicity in an unlawful war and war of aggression against a sovereign UN member state."
"I have never seen such a display of sucking up in my life. That is just that's embarrassing."
"The United States is in the business going around telling people what they have to do and that that doesn't wear well. People get fed up with it and say, 'Nah, you know, you're not going to tell me what to do. We'll figure it out on our own.'"
"The definition of insanity, doing the same thing, expecting a different outcome. That's Israel."
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