India JOINS UAE In Fight With Saudis, Pakistan
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Saudi Arabia has initiated a deal to buy gold from Sudan, challenging the UAE's historical dominance over Sudan's gold trade.
- ❖The UAE backs the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, a group described as a derivative of the Janjaweed, while Saudi Arabia and Pakistan support the Sudanese army with a substantial weapons package.
- ❖India has deepened its strategic partnership with the UAE, signing a $3 billion LNG deal and enhancing defense ties, mirroring Saudi Arabia's security agreement with Pakistan.
- ❖The Red Sea is a critical geopolitical waterway, with Sudan's ports being vital for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, influencing military deployments and proxy conflicts in Yemen and Libya.
- ❖The conflict in Sudan has resulted in a severe humanitarian crisis, including massacres in El Fasher (up to 150,000 killed) and a collapsing health system, with the ICC prosecuting atrocities.
- ❖The US is deeply intertwined with the UAE, a top ally that the host claims has 'bought off' Washington, limiting the US's ability to intervene or hold the UAE accountable for its actions in Sudan.
Insights
1Saudi-UAE Proxy War Escalates in Sudan
A direct proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is unfolding in Sudan. The UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a group linked to past genocides, while Saudi Arabia, in alliance with Pakistan, provides military aid to the Sudanese army. This rivalry extends to economic control, with Saudi Arabia now buying Sudanese gold, previously a UAE monopoly.
Saudi Arabia announced a deal to buy Sudanese gold (). The UAE backs the RSF (), while Saudi Arabia and Pakistan offer a billion-plus dollar weapons package to the Sudanese army (). The war started in Yemen and rolled into Sudan ().
2Geopolitical Realignments: India-UAE vs. Pakistan-Saudi
The Saudi-UAE rivalry has triggered a significant geopolitical realignment. India, a growing economy needing energy, has forged a $3 billion LNG and defense deal with the UAE. Conversely, Saudi Arabia has tightened its security relationship with Pakistan, effectively gaining a 'nuclear umbrella.' This mirrors the historical animosity between India and Pakistan.
India and UAE signed a $3 billion LNG deal and agreed to boost trade and defense (). Saudi Arabia linked up with Pakistan, securing a security agreement that provides a 'nuclear umbrella' (). The UAE and India also share 'ideological sympathy' due to hostility towards 'Islamists' (, ).
3Red Sea as a Strategic Battleground
The Red Sea is identified as a critical global waterway, with control over its ports and surrounding regions being central to the Saudi-UAE conflict. Sudan's Red Sea ports are vital, as are strategic points in Yemen and Libya, where the UAE has built influence, effectively 'encircling' Saudi Arabia.
The Red Sea is a critical waterway running through the Suez Canal and Gulf of Aden (). Sudan has critical ports along the Red Sea (). The UAE built strength in Yemen and Libya, encircling Saudi Arabia ().
4Humanitarian Catastrophe and ICC Involvement in Sudan
The conflict in Sudan has led to a devastating humanitarian crisis, including massacres in Darfur and El Fasher (up to 150,000 killed), and the collapse of the health system in regions like South Kordofan. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has announced it is prosecuting atrocities, despite historical skepticism about its focus on African conflicts.
The war in Sudan has taken hundreds of thousands of lives (). The ICC is trying to bring charges against the RSF (). Darfuris are subjected to torture, rape, executions, and mass graves (). Up to 150,000 people were killed in the El Fasher massacre (). Sudan's health system in South Kordofan is near collapse ().
5US Complicity and UAE Influence in Washington
The United States, a top ally of the UAE, has empowered the Gulf nation throughout its rise. Despite the UAE driving a significant proxy conflict and humanitarian crisis, the US is seen as unable to exert pressure due to the UAE's extensive financial and political influence, including 'buying off' Washington institutions and politicians, and having direct business ties with figures like Donald Trump.
The UAE is driving the conflict and is a top ally of the United States, empowered by the US (). The UAE is 'entirely vulnerable to American action' but has 'completely purchased all of Washington' (, ). The Trump Organization has significant business ties in the UAE ().
Lessons
- Investigate the specific lobbying efforts and financial contributions made by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to US politicians and institutions to understand their influence on foreign policy decisions.
- Demand increased media coverage and international attention for the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, including the massacres and health system collapse, to pressure for accountability and aid.
- Evaluate the US's alliances with Gulf nations like the UAE in light of their roles in proxy conflicts and human rights abuses, considering whether these alliances align with stated American values.
Quotes
"What are you doing going after Israel? The ICC is set up for African dictators, for Africans."
"The UAE, ironically, is as hostile to Islam as as as a quote unquote Muslim country could possibly be."
"The UAE has completely purchased all of Washington, has has bought off basically every college and university in the United States that matters."
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