Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran WIPES OUT Huge Targets, Explosions in Tehran
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran is prepared for a US ground invasion, having upgraded its missile capabilities and anticipating such a scenario.
- ❖The US military lacks sufficient amphibious transport and deployable ground troops (only ~50,000) for an Iran invasion, which would likely be 'swallowed up' quickly.
- ❖US mobilization apparatus is defunct; a draft would face widespread resistance, and a significant portion of the standing army is non-deployable.
- ❖Iran destroyed $5 billion worth of US/Israeli radar systems (TPPY, ANFPS) in 6 days, severely impacting early warning capabilities.
- ❖Iranian forces decimated at least eight US bases and CIA infrastructure in the region, contrary to Pentagon claims of effectiveness.
- ❖The US is running critically short of precision-guided munitions (PGMs) like Tomahawks and Patriot missiles, resorting to 'iron bombs' like in Vietnam.
- ❖Iranian use of cardboard cutouts and silhouettes effectively fools US pilots into reporting false 'kills', masking the true ineffectiveness of air campaigns.
- ❖Israel is suppressing news of significant damage from Iranian missiles, with reports indicating over 90% missile penetration.
- ❖Iran's new 'Khorramshahr' missile uses Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) or cluster munitions, detaching warheads kilometers above ground for widespread destruction.
- ❖Trump's foreign policy is described as 'delusional', believing he can handpick Iran's next leader based on a failed Venezuela model.
- ❖Arab states are revising investment policies and considering pulling money from the US, shifting towards Russia and China due to US unreliability and regional instability.
- ❖CIA intelligence capabilities in the Gulf are compromised, with Iranian intelligence accurately targeting CIA offices within embassies.
Insights
1US Military Incapacity for Ground Invasion
Colonel Larry Wilkerson asserts that the US military is severely unprepared for a ground invasion of Iran. He states that there are not enough amphibious ships to transport Marines, and any force of around 50,000 troops would be quickly overwhelmed, leading to massive casualties. He also highlights the lack of a functional mobilization apparatus, widespread public unwillingness for conscription, and a significant percentage of the existing army being non-deployable.
Wilkerson details that 'you couldn't find enough amphibious bottoms... to mount a marine invasion' and that 50,000 troops 'would be swallowed up in very short time'. He notes the absence of a 'dependable selective service system' and that '10 to 20% of the army is non-deployable'.
2Iran's Advanced Missile Capabilities and US/Israeli Blindness
Larry Johnson reveals that Iran has successfully destroyed billions of dollars worth of US and Israeli radar systems and decimated US bases and CIA infrastructure in the region. This has effectively 'blinded' the US and Israel, severely compromising their early warning and intelligence capabilities.
Johnson states that 'Iran in a period of 6 days has destroyed $5 billion worth of radar systems, completely blinded the United States and Israel,' including TPPY and ANFPS systems. He adds that 'the Iranians have decimated the US bases... at least eight of them in the region as well as gone after CIA infrastructure and offices.'
3Critical US Munitions Shortages and Reliance on 'Iron Bombs'
Colonel Wilkerson and Larry Johnson discuss severe shortages of critical precision-guided munitions (PGMs) in the US, forcing the military to revert to dropping 'iron bombs' similar to the Vietnam War. This indicates a significant depletion of advanced weaponry, undermining a key US military advantage.
Wilkerson notes that 'we're also going through precision guided munitions so swiftly that we are now dropping iron bombs like we did in Vietnam.' Johnson specifies shortages of THAAD missiles, with only 79 produced annually at $12-13 million each, and Iran destroying three units in one week.
4Official 'Gaslighting' and Propaganda
Both speakers accuse the Pentagon and the Trump administration of deliberately misleading the public and allies about the true state of the conflict and US military effectiveness. This 'gaslighting' involves downplaying Iranian successes and exaggerating US capabilities, often through fabricated reports and a suppression of negative information.
Johnson refers to 'the gaslighting that's going on right now on the part of the Pentagon' and compares it to false body counts in Vietnam. Wilkerson describes a 'standard practice... of taking your weakness, focusing on it, and lying about that it is not a weakness.' He also mentions pilots reporting 'kills' on Iranian cardboard cutouts.
5Shifting Allegiances of Arab States
The ongoing conflict and perceived US unreliability are causing a major shift in the allegiances of Arab states in the Middle East. These nations are increasingly losing trust in the US as a security guarantor and are exploring closer economic and political ties with Russia and China.
Colonel Wilkerson observes a 'shifting majorly and objectly against our interest at a speed I never thought it would.' Larry Johnson states that 'there's no longer trust and confidence in the United States' and that Arab states 'recognize the future economically lies with Russia and China, not with the United States.'
6Trump's Delusional Foreign Policy
Donald Trump's approach to Iran is characterized as 'delusional', particularly his belief that he can unilaterally select Iran's next leader based on a perceived 'success' in Venezuela. This indicates a profound disconnect from geopolitical realities and a lack of understanding of the region's complexities.
Dana Bash's report details Trump's assertion that picking Iran's next leader 'is going to work very easily. It's going to work like it did in Venezuela.' Larry Johnson calls Trump 'out of touch with reality' and suffering from 'confabulation,' an 'early sign of dementia.'
Bottom Line
The economic fallout from the conflict, particularly the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, will disproportionately impact Europe's energy supply and devastate the luxury economies of Gulf states like Dubai and Doha, making them highly vulnerable investment targets.
This suggests a significant shift in global economic power and investment risk, as traditional safe havens in the Gulf become unstable, and Europe faces severe energy crises.
Investors and businesses should re-evaluate geopolitical risk in the Middle East and diversify energy supply chains, potentially seeking opportunities in alternative energy or less volatile regions.
The US military's reliance on outdated intelligence gathering (e.g., inability to hide troop movements from modern ISR) and a bureaucratic culture that suppresses dissenting intelligence reports creates a self-reinforcing cycle of delusion at the highest levels of government.
This systemic failure means US policy decisions are based on flawed information, leading to predictable strategic failures and an inability to adapt to evolving threats.
There is an opportunity for independent intelligence analysis and reporting that bypasses traditional bureaucratic filters, providing more accurate assessments to decision-makers and the public.
Lessons
- Challenge official government and media narratives regarding military conflicts and capabilities, seeking out diverse sources of information and analysis.
- Re-evaluate investment strategies in regions heavily reliant on Middle Eastern stability and US security guarantees, considering the increasing geopolitical risks and shifting allegiances.
- Advocate for greater transparency and accountability in military and intelligence reporting to prevent 'gaslighting' and ensure policy decisions are based on accurate assessments of reality.
Quotes
"Because we are confident that we can confront them and that will be a big disaster for them."
"You couldn't find enough amphibious bottoms, Nema, to mount a marine invasion. That's about the only way we could do it given the circumstances. And if they were sent, it wouldn't be any more than about 50,000. And I dare say they'd be swallowed up in very short time and we would lose all those people either to prison or death or some combination."
"Iran in a period of 6 days has destroyed $5 billion worth of radar systems, completely blinded the United States and Israel."
"We're also going through precision guided munitions so swiftly that we are now dropping iron bombs like we did in Vietnam."
"What the hell have you done to us America? What?"
"The damage that Trump and his minions are doing both domestically... and overseas now with this last war epic fury is registering all across the globe. And I don't think... we're not going to recover from this."
"The CIA is blinded by bureaucracy. MSAD's blinded by bloody mindedness."
Q&A
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