Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: 4 US Warships Tried to Enter Strait of Hormuz – Then Iran Launched
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Recent days saw multiple US-Iran military confrontations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian missile warnings and US retaliatory strikes.
- ❖Iranian leadership explicitly rejects dialogue for concessions, emphasizing military strength and demanding immediate sanction relief and unfrozen assets.
- ❖Donald Trump's public statements on Iran are contradictory and disconnected from actual diplomatic efforts, creating confusion and undermining US credibility.
- ❖Stephen Miller's claims of Iran's 'military battlefield defeat' and economic desperation are dismissed as false propaganda, with Iran's economy showing resilience.
- ❖Israel's military actions in Lebanon are causing significant casualties and are framed as 'ethnic cleansing,' risking a wider regional war.
- ❖Gulf Arab states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia are increasingly denying US military access and forming new security alliances with China and Pakistan, including a Pakistani nuclear umbrella for Saudi Arabia.
- ❖Jonathan Pollard's advocacy for nuclear EMP weapons against Iran is condemned as 'lunacy' that would lead to 'utter destruction' and likely Israel's demise.
- ❖Russia has issued serious warnings for ambassadors to evacuate Kiev, signaling a potential major strike targeting foreign intelligence assets.
Insights
1Escalating Military Confrontations in Strait of Hormuz
In recent days, Iran has actively challenged US naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz. This included firing warning missiles at an American oil tanker and stopping four US warships attempting to enter the strait. The US responded with attacks on Bandar Abbas, which Iran countered by firing a warning missile at a US airbase in Kuwait, threatening its destruction if provocations continued. This sequence of events suggests a de-escalation by the US in the immediate aftermath.
Host's initial report on tanker and warship incidents; Larry Johnson's timeline of events, including US attacks on Bandar Abbas and Iranian missile response on Kuwait base, leading to a temporary US stand-down.
2Iran's Firm Stance: Concessions Through Missiles, Not Dialogue
The head of the Iranian Parliament publicly tweeted that Iran seizes concessions through missiles, not dialogue, and has no trust in guarantees or words, only actions. This directly contradicts US claims of nearing a diplomatic agreement and highlights Iran's resolve to use military leverage to achieve its demands for immediate sanction relief, unfrozen assets, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Host quoting Iranian Parliament head's tweet: 'We seize concession not through dialogue, but with missiles.'
3US Diplomatic Incoherence and False Narratives
Donald Trump's public statements regarding Iran, such as denying immediate sanction relief or unfreezing assets, directly contradict Iran's stated preconditions for negotiation, making any coherent diplomacy impossible. Stephen Miller's narrative of Iran's 'military battlefield defeat' and economic desperation is dismissed as propaganda, with experts noting Iran's economy is strengthening due to increased trade with Russia and China and rising oil prices.
Larry Johnson contrasting Trump's claims with Iran's demands (); Colonel Wilkerson on Trump's pronouncements disrupting diplomacy (); Larry Johnson refuting Miller's narrative with Art Berman's oil market analysis and Iran's economic improvements ().
4Israel's Military Overextension and Vulnerability to Drones
Benjamin Netanyahu's 'final solution' rhetoric and ongoing military actions in Lebanon are leading to significant Israeli casualties, particularly from Hezbollah's drone attacks. Israel's ground forces are described as 'roundly beaten' and its air defense systems, like Iron Dome, have been targeted. This suggests Israel's military is overextended and facing a strategic problem with no immediate solution, potentially leading to its 'utter destruction' if it escalates to nuclear weapons.
Colonel Wilkerson on Netanyahu's 'final solution' language and actions in Lebanon (), describing it as 'ethnic cleansing' (); Larry Johnson detailing Hezbollah's drone effectiveness against Israeli vehicles and Iron Dome, leading to suppressed but high casualties ().
5Geopolitical Realignment: Gulf States Pivot Away from US
Gulf Arab countries, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are increasingly denying the US use of military facilities and shifting their alliances towards China and Pakistan. Qatar has reportedly given the US 9 months to shut down Al Udeid airbase. This pivot is driven by the recognition that China is the 'future' and a desire for stability, with Pakistan reportedly offering a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, indicating a significant decline in US influence in the region.
Larry Johnson discussing Qatar's demand to shut down Al Udeid and Saudi limits on US air refueling (); Larry Johnson mentioning the increased security relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan's nuclear guarantee ().
Bottom Line
The US is facing a critical loss of military basing in the Persian Gulf, with Qatar reportedly demanding the closure of Al Udeid airbase within 9 months, and Saudi Arabia imposing limits on US air operations.
This signifies a profound shift in regional power dynamics, severely limiting US military projection capabilities and influence in a strategically vital area. It forces the US to reconsider its entire Middle East strategy and potentially seek new, less favorable basing options.
For China and Pakistan, this creates an opportunity to solidify their strategic partnerships and security presence in the Gulf, offering alternative security guarantees and economic ties to regional states disillusioned with US policy.
Pakistan has reportedly provided a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia, significantly enhancing Saudi Arabia's security posture against perceived threats.
This development fundamentally alters the regional balance of power, potentially deterring Israeli or Iranian aggression against Saudi Arabia and further integrating Pakistan into the Gulf's security architecture. It also raises questions about nuclear proliferation and regional stability.
This creates a new security framework for Gulf states, potentially leading to a broader regional alliance that includes Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and key GCC countries, challenging existing Western-aligned security structures.
Lessons
- Monitor the Strait of Hormuz for continued military engagements as Iran asserts control and the US struggles with a coherent response.
- Analyze the public statements of US, Iranian, and Israeli officials for contradictions and underlying intentions, rather than taking them at face value, to gauge true diplomatic progress or escalation.
- Track the shifting alliances and military basing agreements in the Persian Gulf, particularly the reported withdrawal of US forces from Qatar, as indicators of declining US influence and rising Chinese/Pakistani engagement.
Quotes
"We seize concession not through dialogue, but with missiles. In negotiations, we merely make them understood. We have no trust in guarantees or words. Only actions are the measure. No actions will be taken before the other side acts. The winner of any agreement is the one who is better prepared for war."
"If you want to get drunk, break out, you know, the Jack Daniel's 100 proof. He says the US oil is really it's it's the equivalent of light beer and wine. It it's it's not really the kind of oil that is it's not that's needed to produce diesel."
"Stephen Miller is an agent working in the White House for Bibi Netanyahu. Of course, we've all known that all along. But to have this prominence when he gets it in his mind to come out and speak like he did there is a bastardization of everything the the the system stands for, particularly in the White House."
"I don't care if you start throwing nukes immediately. Responsibly, but immediately. And the case that I've been pushing is the use of an electromagnetic pulse weapon or weapons against Iran. Why are we waiting to get hit?"
"Israel, even with all of its nukes, it does not have the ability to wipe Iran off the face of the earth. And Iran has made it very clear any such attack it will be retaliated with on on a massive scale... the likely result would be the utter destruction of Israel."
Q&A
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