Trump’s Blueprint for Breaking Elections (w/ Ian Bassin) | Mona Charen Show
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The current global and domestic political moment is a 'rupture,' not just a transformation, requiring new democratic constructs.
- ❖The 2008 financial crisis exposed a fundamental betrayal of the American democratic bargain, leading to public disillusionment with liberal democratic institutions.
- ❖Initial post-Trump strategies, like relying solely on federal litigation and seeking bipartisan reforms, largely failed to address the political nature of the threat.
- ❖Despite initial skepticism, litigation has proven more effective than anticipated in Trump's second term, slowing efforts to consolidate power.
- ❖Trump's playbook involves manufacturing narratives of election fraud and foreign interference to justify federal control over decentralized elections.
- ❖State-level legislation, such as 'universal 1983 laws,' can empower residents to hold federal officials accountable for constitutional rights violations, leveraging the federalist design.
- ❖The deployment of heavily armed federal forces, like ICE, in residential communities (e.g., Minnesota) is a tactic that could be used to intimidate voters and suppress turnout.
Insights
1The 'Rupture' of the Global Order and Institutional Failures
Mark Carney's framing of the current global moment as a 'rupture' rather than a transformation highlights that the known world has ended, and there is no clear vision for what comes next. This rupture is partly due to the failure of 20th-century liberal democratic institutions, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, which exposed a 'fundamental betrayal' of the public's trust that hard work leads to prosperity. This disillusionment made the public unwilling to defend the status quo, which Trump exploited.
Ian Bassin references Mark Carney's speech at Davos () and the political polling from 2010 in the White House showing public sentiment post-financial crisis (). Mona Charen adds that institutions like the education system also failed badly ().
2Evolving Strategies to Counter Executive Overreach
Initially, Protect Democracy focused on litigation, expecting a post-Nixon era of bipartisan reforms to strengthen guardrails. This legislative effort largely failed. However, litigation in Trump's second term has been more successful than anticipated, with lower courts and even the Supreme Court occasionally checking executive power, such as preventing the deployment of the National Guard in cities or blocking total control of the Federal Reserve.
Ian Bassin describes the initial litigation strategy () and the failure of legislative packages like the Protecting Our Democracy Act (). He then details successes in Trump's second term, including blocking Lindsey Halligan's appointment () and the Supreme Court's actions on the National Guard () and the Lisa Cook case ().
3State-Level Action as a Federalist Check on Federal Abuse
The founders designed a system with distributed power, including checks at the state level. States can pass 'universal 1983 laws' (or converse 1983 laws) to create a right of action for residents to sue federal officials for constitutional rights violations, closing a significant gap in accountability where federal law currently limits such remedies.
Ian Bassin explains the current legal gap () and how states can pass laws like those introduced in New York and California (). He cites the case of Renee Good in Minnesota as a catalyst for other states' interest ().
4Trump's Predictable Blueprint for Election Subversion
Trump's strategy involves systematically undermining public trust in elections by manufacturing fraud narratives, potentially even coercing foreign leaders to claim interference. This creates a 'patina of justification' for his apparatchiks to corrupt the system, assert federal control over decentralized elections, or pressure local officials to 'clean up' voter rolls by withholding funds.
Ian Bassin states that Trump will 'try to do a version of that again' () and anticipates him trying to 'coerce leaders in Venezuela' () or use DOJ monitors to claim 'rampant fraud' (). He explains how this narrative enables federal assertion of control over decentralized elections ().
5Federal Militarized Deployment as a Voter Suppression Tactic
The deployment of heavily armed federal forces, such as ICE and CBP, in residential communities, as seen in Minnesota, creates a 'dystopian nightmare' where citizens, including US citizens, are terrified to leave their homes. This tactic can be deployed around elections to intimidate voters and depress turnout, especially if mail-in balloting is restricted, forcing people to vote in person.
Mona Charen raises the concern about ICE/CPD deployment (). Ian Bassin describes dispatches from Minnesota detailing 'heavily armed in military fatigues and masked men walking down the street banging on doors' (), asking residents to identify Asian families' homes (), and abducting US citizens (). He links this to voter suppression if mail-in voting is limited ().
Bottom Line
Trump may attempt to coerce foreign leaders, like Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela, to falsely claim they interfered in the 2020 election to steal it for Joe Biden, thereby manufacturing a narrative of fraud to justify future election subversion.
This specific, anticipated tactic underscores the depth of potential disinformation campaigns designed to erode public trust in electoral outcomes, creating a pretext for federal intervention or local official coercion.
Pre-bunking this specific narrative by informing the public and media about this potential tactic can neutralize its impact, similar to how the 'Red Mirage' was anticipated and explained in 2020.
Lessons
- Become a poll worker through powerthepolls.org to ensure fair election administration and help staff polling places, especially as older volunteers retire.
- Actively engage in your local civic community by talking about local and state issues with neighbors and organizing participation in local processes, as outlined in the 'How can you protect democracy?' guide on protectdemocracy.org.
- Educate yourself and others about the reality of election integrity, countering false narratives of rampant fraud or foreign interference that are designed to undermine trust and justify authoritarian actions.
Citizen's Playbook for Protecting Democracy
**Staff the Polls:** Sign up at powerthepolls.org to become a trained poll worker, ensuring the smooth and fair operation of elections in your community.
**Engage Locally:** Utilize resources like protectdemocracy.org's 'How can you protect democracy?' guide to find specific ways to participate in local civic life, from discussing issues with neighbors to organizing community action.
**Counter Disinformation:** Actively challenge and pre-bunk false claims about election fraud or foreign interference by understanding the facts and sharing credible information, thereby fortifying public trust in the electoral system.
Notable Moments
Ian Bassin describes current dispatches from Minnesota detailing heavily armed federal agents (ICE/CBP) in military fatigues, masked, banging on doors in residential streets, asking residents to identify homes of Asian families, and violently detaining people who question them or film their activities.
This vivid account illustrates a real-time 'dystopian nightmare' where federal power is being used to intimidate and instill fear, directly impacting citizens' freedom of movement and potentially serving as a precursor to voter suppression tactics around elections.
Quotes
"The document gives us as citizens a set of tools that we can use or not use to guard against a tyranny, but they we had to use them."
"Anyone who doesn't anticipate at least that he will try to do a version of that again... is ignorant and blind to the facts of history."
"We are under siege. Our police are overwhelmed and feel like they are not in a position to protect us."
Q&A
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