Trump's War Could Cost Him EVERYTHING (w/ Nicholas Kristof) | The Bulwark Podcast

The Iran war, deemed unnecessary, has left the US in a worse strategic position. Kristof believes it is now more likely Iran will acquire nuclear weapons in 3-5 years than before the war, as the previous, more favorable nuclear deal was rejected. The war has also led to a harder-line Iranian regime, less amenable to negotiation and more inclined to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz and pursue nuclear capabilities.

Kristof states, 'we got into this war unnecessarily and now we're in a worse position than when we started. You know we're now trying to get the straight of Hormuz reopened. Um and I think it's actually more likely that Iran will end up with nuclear weapons say you know 3 or 5 years from now than at the start of the war.' He also notes the regime change resulted in 'a harder line regime... more inclined to uh take over the straight, to build nuclear weapons.'

The Iran war has severely depleted US missile and interceptor stockpiles, including Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot Interceptors. This significant loss of inventory compromises the US's ability to execute contingency plans, particularly for defending Taiwan against a potential Chinese attack, thereby incrementally increasing the risk of such a conflict.

The host cites a New York Times story: 'The US has burned through around 1100 of its long range stealth cruise missiles built for war with China. Fired off a thousand Tomahawk cruise missiles roughly 10 times the number we currently buy each year. The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot Interceptor missiles in this war at $4 million a pop.' Kristof adds that this will 'incrementally increase the risk of an attack on Taiwan.'

Beyond direct military costs, the war's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is causing a 'sulfur crisis' affecting fertilizers, leading to rising food prices globally. This disproportionately impacts the poorest and most vulnerable populations, especially in countries like Malawi and Zimbabwe, at a time when international aid is being cut, exacerbating severe acute malnutrition.

Kristof explains, 'half of the people in the world today are alive because of artificial fertilizer or things like ura... as ura grows more expensive then farmers are going to be less able in poor countries to use it and so yields will decline and more kids will go hungry.'

Settler activity in the West Bank has dramatically worsened since October 2023, with brutal attacks on Bedouin villagers, including threats of rape and murder, as part of an 'ethnic cleansing movement.' This violence is increasingly backed by the Israeli Defense Forces, making the US complicit through its supply of weaponry without accountability.

Kristof states, 'settlers are brutally attacking these bedawin villagers um stealing their sheep, threatening to uh rape and kill the children unless they flee. It's really part of an ethnic cleansing movement.' He adds, 'this is partly because of our American policy' supplying weaponry.

Authoritarian leaders, by surrounding themselves with 'yesmen,' tend to implement poor economic policies and become endemically corrupt. This corruption and economic mismanagement can be a significant political vulnerability. Kristof applies this model to the Trump administration, noting its pervasive corruption as a potential weakness that resonates with voters, even those in rural, Trump-supporting areas.

Kristof notes, 'the authoritarians um they surround themselves with yesmen and so as a result they tend to have dumb economic policies... and the other thing they do for the same reason... is they become corrupt.' He states, 'I think the corruption issue also resonates' with rural voters.

The Trump administration is forcing Afghan allies, who previously saved American lives and are now at risk from the Taliban, to choose between returning to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan or being sent to war-torn Congo. This policy is described as 'depraved' given the humanitarian dangers in both locations.

Kristof explains, 'these these folks uh they saved American lives uh in Afghanistan... they and their families are at risk in Afghanistan. If they are returned, um they will suffer brutally. Some will be killed and then sending them to Congo... it hasn't been solved.'