Putin, Bone Saw, and Gnomes: Inside Trump’s ‘Peace’ Board (w/ Michael Weiss) | The Bulwark Podcast
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A 6-3 Supreme Court ruling declared Trump's emergency tariffs unconstitutional, limiting his ability to use tariffs as a foreign policy tool.
- ❖Trump's drive for a Nobel Peace Prize and a legacy-defining 'act of war' is seen as a primary motivator for escalating tensions with Iran.
- ❖The US has assembled significant military assets in the Gulf, indicating a potential kinetic conclusion to the Iran situation, possibly a 'one-and-done' bombardment.
- ❖Israel is 'gung-ho' for US involvement in Iran, viewing it as a critical security threat and seeing Trump as their best opportunity for action.
- ❖The 'Board of Peace,' an initiative involving Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff, is composed of authoritarian leaders and is considered by experts to be pageantry without a viable plan for Gaza.
- ❖European leaders are increasingly aware of Trump's unpredictability and are working to maintain NATO's integrity while considering greater self-reliance.
- ❖Marco Rubio's public support for figures like Victor Orban is seen as 'virtue signaling' to Trump, potentially compromising his long-held principles for strategic goals like toppling the Castro regime in Cuba.
- ❖Putin's economy is now wholly dependent on the continuation of the Ukraine war, and he views Ukraine as a chess piece in a great power struggle with the US.
Insights
1Supreme Court Ruling on Trump's Tariffs Limits Executive Power
The Supreme Court issued a 6-3 ruling declaring Trump's emergency tariffs unconstitutional. This decision significantly curtails a primary tool Trump used to punish foreign leaders and countries, impacting his future geopolitical leverage.
Host Tim Miller reports a 6-3 Supreme Court ruling declaring Trump's emergency tariffs unconstitutional, with Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissenting. He notes this removes a 'favorite tool for punishing foreign prime ministers who are mean to him at a meeting.'
2Trump's Iran Strategy Driven by Personal Legacy, Not Coherent Plan
Michael Weiss suggests Trump's motivation for a kinetic confrontation with Iran stems from a desire for a Nobel Peace Prize and a legacy-defining 'act of war.' This approach lacks a clear 'step two' for post-conflict resolution or regime change, making it primarily a spectacle-driven endeavor.
Michael Weiss states, 'I wouldn't overthink it, I think it's sort of bound up with Donald Trump's own psychology and his own sense of his his importance on the world stage.' He adds Trump 'likes acts of war. He likes the the spectacle of war, saying that he's dropped massive bombs and ordinance on something and then declaring victory.' He likens the strategy to the 'South Park episode with the underwear gnomes... step two is a question mark.'
3Israel's Urgency for US Action Against Iran Post-October 7th
Following October 7th, Israel's security calculations have shifted, making them 'gung-ho' for US military involvement against Iran. They view the current Iranian regime as an immediate threat and see Donald Trump as the most willing US president to act decisively.
Weiss notes, 'They're very gung-ho for Trump to get involved in this... October 7th has changed their calculation across the board.' He adds, 'They're never going to get a better guy in the White House than Donald Trump to go along with it.'
4'Board of Peace' is Performative Pageantry, Lacking Substance
The 'Board of Peace,' an initiative led by Trump's associates, is characterized as a largely ornamental gathering of authoritarian leaders (including Saudi Arabia, Belarus, Uzbekistan) without a credible plan for securing Gaza or achieving lasting peace. Experts dismiss it as a 'joke' and 'utter fantasy.'
Weiss describes the 'Board of Peace' as 'the ornamentalism of saying we've assembled this collection of nations' but notes 'nobody I know thinks this has a chance of working.' He quotes a CIA veteran calling it 'a joke,' emphasizing it's 'all pageantry.'
5European Allies Adapt to Trump's Unpredictability, NATO's Future at Risk
European leaders are navigating Trump's transactional approach, where allies are 'bullied' and enemies 'courted.' NATO's Secretary General is actively working to keep the alliance intact, but there's a credible risk of NATO ceasing to exist if Trump refuses collective defense. Europeans are increasingly realizing the need for greater self-reliance.
Weiss explains, 'our allies exist to be bullied and heed and wrangled into submission... our enemies exist to be courted and cultivated.' He mentions NATO Secretary General Mark Rut 'bending the knee' to Trump 'because in the next three years there is a credible risk with Donald Trump as president that NATO would cease to exist in all but name.'
6Marco Rubio's Strategic Compromises for Cuba Policy
Marco Rubio's public alignment with Trump and figures like Victor Orban is viewed as a strategic compromise. Weiss suggests Rubio is 'virtue signaling' to Trump to gain influence, with his ultimate goal being the toppling of the Castro regime in Cuba, a 'crowning achievement' he believes is achievable under Trump.
Weiss states Rubio's actions are 'catering to an audience of one' and 'virtue signaling.' He explains Rubio's 'crowning achievement of his life in government, would be toppling the Castro regime in Cuba. And it looks very very likely that that is going to happen while Donald Trump is still president.'
7Putin's War Economy and Maximalist Ambitions in Ukraine
Four years into the Ukraine war, Putin's economy is now 'wholly dependent' on its continuation. He maintains 'maximalist ambitions' to seize the entire country, viewing Ukraine as a disposable entity on a geopolitical chessboard between the US and Russia. US intelligence is 'balls deep' in Ukraine, providing targeting packages for strikes within Russian territory.
Weiss notes, 'Putin, his economy is now wholly dependent on keeping this going.' He adds, 'Putin maintains maximalist ambitions. He wants the entirety of the country.' He also reveals, 'The CIA provides targeting packages to the Ukrainians, not just to target Russian positions in occupied Ukraine, but also to target Russian positions inside Russian territory, including and especially the energy infrastructure.'
Bottom Line
The Iranian regime, according to FT reporting, may believe that war with the US is preferable to a deal, hoping to exhaust the US and consolidate domestic support against a common enemy.
This suggests a dangerous miscalculation by the Iranian leadership, potentially leading them to provoke conflict rather than seek de-escalation, based on a belief in US fatigue and domestic rallying effects.
Understanding this internal Iranian calculus is critical for US policymakers to avoid unintended escalation and to craft strategies that do not inadvertently play into the regime's desired narrative of external threat.
Marco Rubio's 'closet Reaganite' strategy of compromising principles to influence Trump from within is a 'dangerous wager' that risks him becoming an 'accomplice' to MAGA instincts rather than a moderating force.
This highlights the moral and political tightrope walked by traditional Republicans attempting to navigate the Trump era. While it might yield specific policy wins (like Cuba), it could permanently alter their political identity and effectiveness.
For political observers and voters, this offers a framework to evaluate the long-term costs and benefits of 'playing the game' within a populist movement, and whether such compromises ultimately serve broader democratic principles.
Key Concepts
South Park Underwear Gnomes (Step 2 is a Question Mark)
This model describes a plan where step one is clear (e.g., 'steal underwear'), step three is the desired outcome ('profits'), but step two, the crucial intermediary process, is entirely undefined or unknown. Michael Weiss applies this to Trump's foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran and the 'Board of Peace,' highlighting the lack of a coherent strategy beyond initial action.
Lessons
- Monitor the composition and activities of Trump's 'Board of Peace' for any material actions or financial flows, rather than taking its stated purpose at face value.
- Pay close attention to statements and actions from European leaders regarding NATO and defense spending, as they increasingly signal a shift towards greater autonomy from US security guarantees.
- Analyze Marco Rubio's policy positions and public statements not just for their immediate content, but for their underlying strategic motivations, particularly concerning his long-term goals in Latin America.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the host's personal experience visiting memorials in Minnesota and reflecting on Lincoln's Gettysburg Address, emphasizing the 'unfinished work' of defending constitutional rights against authoritarian tendencies.
This segment provides a personal, emotional anchor for the host's broader concerns about democratic backsliding and the ongoing 'battle against an authoritarian government,' setting a reflective tone for the subsequent geopolitical analysis.
Quotes
"First they came for the soybean farmers and I wasn't a soybean farmer, but I still voted for Trump. And then they came for the Epstein files and now I'm very angry about that."
"This is not a guy who who likes war properly speaking. He likes acts of war. He likes the the spectacle of war, saying that he's dropped massive bombs and ordinance on something and then declaring victory."
"Israel doesn't have a foreign policy. It has a defense policy."
"Steal the underwear is step one. Step three is profits, but step two is a question mark. Like, nobody has step two for anything."
"Our allies exist to be bullied and heed and wrangled into submission... our enemies exist to be courted and cultivated and perhaps incentivized to becoming our new friends."
"Rubio is a closet reaganite, but he's doing what he has to do to stay in the game and to try and influence the system from within. Now, this is a very dangerous wager."
Q&A
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