Larry C. Johnson & Pepe Escobar: Iran’s Ultimate Defense Plan: The End of Conventional War?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The alleged US/CIA/Mossad operation against Iran involved an economic attack on December 28th, 2025, causing currency collapse to incite protests.
- ❖Starlink terminals were critical for coordinating dissident groups (MEK, POI, Kurds, Baluchis) and disseminating propaganda during the Iranian protests.
- ❖Iran International, based in London, was identified as a primary propaganda channel for the destabilization effort.
- ❖The Iranian government's internet shutdown and electronic warfare against Starlink were crucial in disrupting the intelligence operation and quelling riots.
- ❖US military action against Iran was reportedly called off because military planners could not guarantee success, compounded by a lack of sufficient assets and regional airspace denial from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey.
- ❖The US-Europe relationship is likened to an abusive dynamic, with Europe unable or unwilling to assert independence from US demands, even on issues like Greenland.
- ❖BRICS nations face significant structural challenges in de-dollarization, as exemplified by the New Development Bank's operations still being largely dollar-denominated and vulnerable to secondary sanctions.
- ❖The US is perceived as pursuing a strategy of 'permanent strikes' and 'dismembering Eurasia' to prevent the rise of a multipolar world, with Iran being a key target due to its role in BRICS and SCO.
Insights
1Failed Hybrid Operation Against Iran
Larry C. Johnson asserts that the US, CIA, and Mossad, possibly with British involvement, launched a massive intelligence operation to destabilize Iran. This involved an economic attack on December 28th, 2025, causing currency collapse to provoke merchant class protests. Dissident groups (MEK, POI, Kurds, Baluchis) were coordinated via Starlink terminals and infiltrated the protests to incite violence, aiming to justify a military strike and regime change.
Johnson details the timeline, the use of MEK/POI front groups for propaganda, the discovery of Starlink terminals, and the economic attack on the currency. The host, Nema, corroborates the infiltration of peaceful protests, the use of foreign weapons (e.g., Turkish), and the role of 'Iran International' in broadcasting fake news.
2Iran's Counter-Measures and US Retreat
The Iranian government successfully countered the destabilization attempt by shutting down the internet, which disrupted Starlink communications and isolated the foreign-backed agitators. This allowed security forces to locate and apprehend those fomenting violence. Faced with the failure of the internal destabilization and a lack of guaranteed military success, the US reportedly called off its planned military strike.
Johnson states the plan 'started falling apart Thursday night your time into Friday' when the government shut down the internet, and 'the electronic warfare system basically shut down Starlink.' He adds that Trump reportedly called off the attack when a guarantee of success couldn't be provided. Nema confirms the internet shutdown was the 'final moment' and led to the disappearance of riots.
3Propaganda and Information Warfare
A pervasive and well-orchestrated propaganda campaign, primarily from 'Iran International' (based in London), was designed to create a narrative of government incompetence and collapse in Iran. This included injecting fake news daily, fabricating stories of mass casualties, and promoting the son of the former Shah as a returning leader, aiming to sow doubt and desperation within the Iranian society.
Nema describes 'Iran International' as a 'main propaganda machine' that seemed to be 'writing everything for this channel' from an external intelligence agency. He recounts how they injected fake news about mass killings and promoted the Shah's son, while people on the ground observed burning shops and questioned the motives of the rioters.
4US-Europe Relationship as Abusive
Both Johnson and Escobar characterize the relationship between the United States and Europe as an abusive one, where Europe is subservient and unwilling to stand up to US demands, even when those demands are detrimental to European interests. The discussion around Greenland, where Trump openly threatened to acquire the territory, serves as a prime example of this dynamic.
Johnson uses the analogy of a 'woman who lives with a guy that beats the hell out of her every day' () and later a 'big inmate in prison' () to describe Europe's position. Escobar refers to European leaders as 'infraum specimens' () under the 'spell and control of the Atlanticist Zionist axis' (), unable to resist US pressure regarding Greenland or Russian energy.
5Challenges to BRICS De-dollarization
Despite the strategic imperative for BRICS nations like Iran to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, significant structural hurdles remain. The New Development Bank (NDB) of BRICS, for instance, operates largely in US dollars, making it vulnerable to secondary sanctions and hindering its ability to provide loans to sanctioned members like Iran.
Nema questions the role of the BRICS bank and its ability to accept Iranian Rial. Escobar confirms that the NDB's statutes and most loans are in US dollars, calling it 'completely absurd' and explaining that this makes the NDB afraid of secondary sanctions, thus limiting its effectiveness in promoting de-dollarization.
Bottom Line
The immediate cessation of protests and riots in Iran following the internet shutdown, coupled with massive public support for the government against foreign interference, suggests that external coordination and propaganda were the primary drivers, not widespread organic discontent for regime change.
This highlights the critical role of information control and counter-intelligence in modern hybrid warfare, where cutting off external communication channels can rapidly neutralize internally-fomented unrest.
Nations facing similar destabilization attempts could prioritize developing robust electronic warfare capabilities and national internet sovereignty to protect against foreign-backed information and coordination efforts.
The US decision to call off a military strike on Iran was not primarily due to diplomatic pressure from regional allies or Israel, but rather the inability of military planners to guarantee success and the lack of sufficient military assets in place, compounded by the failure of the internal destabilization campaign.
This indicates that US military restraint in the region is driven more by pragmatic assessments of operational success and asset availability than by international or allied diplomatic considerations.
Targeted nations should focus on developing credible deterrence capabilities and counter-hybrid warfare strategies that complicate US military calculations, rather than solely relying on diplomatic appeals.
Lessons
- Recognize that economic instability and social unrest can be deliberately engineered as part of a hybrid warfare strategy to facilitate regime change.
- Understand the critical role of information warfare, including fake news and propaganda channels, in shaping public perception and inciting unrest during geopolitical conflicts.
- Evaluate the true motivations behind international alliances and economic dependencies, as they may mask abusive or exploitative relationships rather than genuine partnerships.
Quotes
"This was a massive massive intelligence operation. So the the wi-i with with the benefit of hindsight u the uh CIA and MSAD I believe you know I don't have documentation to prove this Britz as well may have been involved launched an the economic attack on December 28th when the currency collapsed."
"The electronic warfare system basically shut down Starlink. So all of a sudden these groups and these individuals who were fmenting uh the violence, they were cut off and isolated and then they're able to start locating them and you know, some were killed and some were rounded up."
"The issue right now, this is the final game in my opinion, the economy, trying to collapse the economy because these sort of, you know, human right, you know, women right and all of this are disappearing from the scene."
"Having a relationship with the United States is like you being a woman who lives with a guy that beats the hell out of her every day and then wants wants uh you to cook him dinner at night. At some point you got to leave."
"The real issue is the United States didn't have enough assets around Iran around Iran in th all those bases in the Persian Gulf whatever for a super super hardcore shock and all strike which this time would be a decapitation strike even including Ayatame."
"The only chance that they have of not being expelled from Eurasia and from this constitution of the new Eurasian century is if they break up this organization of Eurasia from the inside. And that means an attack on Iran."
"The main issue is here you know that the Russian economy was dependent on dollar before the war in Ukraine happening more than 54%. During the war they have reduced their dependence on the US dollar you know to below 13% if I'm not miss last time Putin talk it said it's not even less than 13%. No, now I think the Iranian government should think seriously about the dependence of the Iranian economy on dollar."
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