Larry C. Johnson: Massive Iranian Retaliation Hits Back Hard After US Attack — Everything Ignited!
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US and Israel initiated conflict with Iran based on a false belief in popular support for regime overthrow and weak Iranian defenses.
- ❖Iran's military strategy involves overwhelming and depleting US and Israeli air defense systems (Patriot, THAAD, Iron Dome) with decoy and older missiles/drones.
- ❖The US produces only 700-800 Patriot missiles annually, which can be exhausted in a single day by a large-scale Iranian drone attack (e.g., 400 drones require 800 Patriots).
- ❖Iran possesses an estimated 20,000 underground, mobile missiles, making them difficult for the US to locate and destroy.
- ❖Iran can effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting 21% of the world's oil supply, imposing immense economic pressure.
- ❖US military bases in the Persian Gulf (Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) are primary targets for Iranian retaliation.
- ❖The conflict has unified Iranian patriotism, even among those previously critical of the Ayatollah, undermining US regime change objectives.
- ❖US destroyers have limited missile tubes (96) and require port reloads, making them vulnerable to sustained Iranian attacks.
- ❖Donald Trump's 'no more wars' promise is undermined by this conflict, potentially leading to significant political damage.
- ❖The killing of 57 schoolgirls in an initial attack further fuels Iranian resolve and outrage.
Insights
1US/Israel's Misguided Intelligence and Strategic Blunder
The United States and Israel initiated military action against Iran based on flawed intelligence, believing that there was widespread popular support for regime change and that Iran's military capabilities, particularly its ballistic missiles, had been largely neutralized. This led to a miscalculation of Iran's resolve and capacity for retaliation.
Surveys funded by CIA cutouts (USAID, National Endowment for Democracy) through groups like Ganame and Visifon falsely reported 80% of Iranians wanted to overthrow the Ayatollah. US intelligence sources also incorrectly informed journalists like Sai Hirsh that Iranian ballistic missiles were wiped out in previous attacks.
2Iran's War of Attrition Strategy and Missile Superiority
Iran is executing a war of attrition, leveraging its vast, mobile, and underground missile arsenal to deplete US and Israeli air defense systems. By firing hundreds of drones and older missiles, Iran aims to exhaust the limited supplies of Patriot, THAAD, and Iron Dome interceptors, creating a window for more devastating strikes.
Iran's missile stockpile is estimated at 20,000, mostly mobile and underground. The US produces only 700-800 Patriot missiles annually, and each Shahed drone requires at least two Patriots, meaning 400 drones could exhaust a year's production in one day. US destroyers have only 96 missile tubes.
3Economic Leverage: Closing the Strait of Hormuz
Iran possesses the capability to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, which would severely impact the world economy and create immense pressure on the United States and Israel to de-escalate.
Iran can fire anti-ship missiles from shore to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 21% of the world's oil flow. This would cause significant financial pain to oil-dependent nations and wealthy individuals.
4Political Fallout for US Leadership
The conflict, particularly if prolonged and costly, will have severe political repercussions for the US President, undermining promises of avoiding new wars and potentially leading to a significant loss of public support.
Donald Trump promised 'no more wars' but initiated this conflict. A major loss of life, such as the sinking of an aircraft carrier with 5,000 crew, would be the biggest US Navy combat loss in 80 years and could politically destroy him, mirroring George H.W. Bush's downfall after breaking a 'no new taxes' pledge.
Key Concepts
Rope-a-Dope Strategy
Iran is employing a 'rope-a-dope' strategy, similar to Muhammad Ali's boxing tactic, by absorbing initial attacks and allowing US/Israeli air defenses to deplete their limited ammunition, before launching a decisive, overwhelming counter-attack.
Lessons
- Recognize the limitations of advanced air defense systems (Patriot, THAAD, Iron Dome) against a determined, high-volume missile and drone attack, as their ammunition supply is finite.
- Understand that military conflicts can be initiated based on flawed intelligence and internal political narratives, leading to significant strategic miscalculations.
- Monitor global oil markets and shipping lanes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, as disruptions could have immediate and severe economic impacts worldwide.
- Evaluate geopolitical situations with an awareness of a nation's internal resolve and capacity for attrition warfare, rather than solely focusing on initial military strength projections.
- Consider the long-term political consequences for leaders who initiate conflicts based on misjudgments, especially when those conflicts contradict prior public promises.
Notable Moments
The US and Israel launched an attack on Iran, targeting leadership and missile launchers, leading to immediate Iranian retaliation.
This marks the beginning of a significant regional conflict, framed by the guest as a US/Israeli miscalculation that 'kicked over a hornet's nest.'
Reports of 57 schoolgirls killed in an attack, unclear if by US or Israeli missile.
This event is highlighted as a 'murder' that fuels Iranian outrage and patriotism, further solidifying national resolve against the attackers.
Iran's strategic focus on attacking US military bases in the Persian Gulf.
This strategy aims to impose costs, cause attrition, and make US basing untenable, forcing relocation and increasing operational expenses.
Donald Trump's public statements about having 'many exit strategies' and blaming Iranians for not rising up.
This reveals a potential US strategy to quickly disengage if regime change doesn't occur, but the guest argues Iran will maintain control of the conflict's pace.
Quotes
"The United States has lost its goddamn mind and decided to start World War II."
"Israel and the United States have kicked over a hornet's nest and they're susceptible to, you know, anybody that can get stung by a hornet."
"Iran's got cart blanch. They they'll blow the hell out of the air bases in the Prince Sultan air base and Mwahak Alsalti and in Jordan and they're going to they'll level Tel Aviv and Hifa and destroy the oil refineries there."
"We're underestimating the resolve. And this attack today just reinforced the patriotism of the Iranian people. Even some who didn't really like the Ayatollah are pro-Iran today."
"You don't stop until the United States is begging begging for you to stop."
"The United States is not built for a a long drawn out conflict. uh one of attrition"
"Trump promised no more wars and what has he done? Started a new war."
Q&A
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