Col. Jacques Baud: EU Destroys Trump’s War Fantasy – Leaves Him HUMILIATED
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's 'peace through strength' is a form of blackmail or gunboat diplomacy, prioritizing quick, superficial results over addressing root causes.
- ❖US and Iranian negotiation plans were fundamentally incompatible, with each demanding the other's capitulation.
- ❖Middle Eastern diplomacy requires patience and long-term engagement, a stark contrast to the US expectation of rapid outcomes.
- ❖Israel consistently acts as a spoiler in peace negotiations, aiming to keep the US engaged in conflicts against its neighbors.
- ❖Europe is a major loser in the current geopolitical landscape, lacking diplomatic influence, military means, and suffering economic consequences from US-initiated conflicts.
- ❖The US is experiencing a strategic loss of credibility, with allies like South Korea and Taiwan questioning its reliability as a security partner.
- ❖Iran, having faced decades of sanctions, has developed significant self-sufficiency in areas like food and technology, making blockades less impactful than perceived.
- ❖The US decision-making process is often described as 'hip-shooting,' emotional, and lacking strategic depth, leading to self-trapping situations.
Insights
1Trump's 'Peace Through Strength' as Blackmail
Colonel Baud characterizes Donald Trump's 'peace through strength' foreign policy as a modern form of gunboat diplomacy or blackmail. This approach involves presenting a solution and then threatening military action if it's not accepted, aiming for quick, temporary results rather than addressing root causes for lasting peace.
The guest states, 'It's part of the same strategy... peace through strength... is just a variant of blackmail politics... the so-called gunboat diplomacy.' (, )
2Incompatible Negotiation Demands Between US and Iran
The ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran failed because their proposed plans were fundamentally incompatible. The US's 15-point plan essentially demanded Iran's capitulation, while Iran's 10-point plan required the US's capitulation, leaving no common ground for genuine discussion.
Baud explains, 'The 15-point plan in essence asked... nothing else than a capitulation of Iran. On the other hand, if you read the 10 points plan produced by Iran, it's nothing else than a capitulation of the US.' (, )
3Israel's Role as a Spoiler in Middle East Peace
Israel consistently acts as a spoiler in peace initiatives, particularly those involving the US and its neighbors. Its primary objective is to ensure a permanent US military presence and engagement in conflicts against its adversaries, as it lacks the capability to fight them all independently.
The guest notes, 'The aim of Israel... is to have a permanent US presence... they would like to have the US engage in a war against the Israel's neighbors.' (, )
4US Inability to Understand Middle Eastern Negotiation Culture
The US approach to negotiations, characterized by demands for quick results and pressure tactics, is fundamentally mismatched with Middle Eastern diplomatic culture. This culture values long, patient discussions and bargaining, where pressure is counterproductive, leading to resistance rather than compliance.
Baud uses the analogy of 'non-Newtonian fluids' to describe Middle Eastern mentality, stating, 'If you want to negotiate in the Middle East you have to consider that the mentality... you need to have a non-Newtonian freed approach to the diplomacy.' (, )
5Europe as the Primary Loser in US-Initiated Conflicts
Europe consistently emerges as the biggest loser in US-initiated conflicts, particularly in the Middle East. It lacks diplomatic influence, military capability to act independently, and credibility in the region, while bearing the economic and social consequences (e.g., energy supply disruptions, immigration) without having a say in the conflict's genesis.
Baud asserts, 'The Europe is the is in fact the big loser in the whole thing because we see that they have absolutely no word to say in everything that happened.' (, )
6US Strategic Weakening and Loss of Credibility
The US's 'hip-shooting' and emotionally driven foreign policy, particularly its tendency to start wars without clear exit strategies and its perceived unreliability in supporting allies, has led to a significant loss of strategic credibility. This raises questions among key allies like South Korea and Taiwan about the dependability of US security guarantees and the value of NATO.
Baud states, 'The whole credibility of the US has collapsed totally... it shows the lack of of strategic thinking and therefore it questions why should we continue with relying on US security guarantees.' (, )
7Iran's Resilience to Sanctions and Blockades
Decades of sanctions have forced Iran to develop significant self-sufficiency, particularly in food production and technology. This resilience means that new blockades, such as those targeting the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to affect US allies (like GCC countries dependent on desalination and food imports) more severely than Iran itself, which has adapted to external pressures.
The guest highlights, 'The fact that these countries have already experienced and are still under sanctions since decades... they have adjusted their behavior... to bypass those sanctions somehow or to live with the sanctions.' (, )
Bottom Line
The US's reliance on 'real estate agents' like Steve Wkov and Jared Kushner for complex international negotiations, rather than seasoned diplomats, signifies a profound lack of expertise and strategic depth, leading to amateurish foreign policy.
This approach results in ineffective, short-sighted decisions that exacerbate global conflicts and undermine US influence, as these individuals prioritize quick deals over nuanced, long-term diplomatic solutions.
Nations seeking stable international relations should invest heavily in professional diplomatic corps and long-term strategic planning, recognizing that complex global challenges cannot be resolved with simplistic, transactional tactics.
The US's policy of 'make America great again' translates into a willingness to use or misuse allies for its own interests, rather than genuinely supporting them, as exemplified by asking European allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
This self-serving approach fundamentally reshapes global alliances, prompting allies to question US reliability and seek alternative security arrangements or greater self-reliance, potentially leading to a more multipolar world.
Allies of the US should proactively diversify their security and economic partnerships, invest in independent defense capabilities, and develop autonomous foreign policy strategies to mitigate risks associated with an unpredictable and self-interested US foreign policy.
Key Concepts
Gunboat Diplomacy / Blackmail Politics
A foreign policy approach where demands are made, and non-compliance is met with military threat or action. The guest frames Trump's 'peace through strength' as a modern variant, where a solution is presented with a 'gun on the table' (02:17).
Non-Newtonian Fluid Diplomacy
An analogy for Middle Eastern negotiation culture, where applying strong, quick pressure (like hitting a non-Newtonian fluid) results in resistance, but a slow, calm approach allows for progress. This contrasts sharply with the US's 'quick results' mentality (10:55).
Lessons
- When engaging in international negotiations, prioritize understanding the cultural context and traditional diplomatic approaches of all parties, especially in regions like the Middle East where patience and long-term dialogue are paramount.
- Evaluate the long-term strategic implications of foreign policy decisions, considering how actions might erode credibility with allies or inadvertently strengthen adversaries.
- For countries reliant on external security guarantees, actively assess the reliability and self-interest of major powers, and consider diversifying alliances or enhancing independent defense capabilities.
Quotes
"Solving a conflict is not just to blackmail people in order to silent the weapons. In order to solve a conflict, you need to address the root causes in order to have a a a longstanding result and not just a temporary result."
"If you want to negotiate in the in the Middle East you have you have to consider that the mentality in the Middle East... you need to have a non-Newtonian freed approach to the diplomacy."
"The aim of Israel... is to have a permanent US presence and... they would like to have the US engage in a war against the Israel's neighbors."
"The Americans are only brave when they have enough equipment... If they if if they have dominant dominance they would they are brave. If they are not they are not brave."
"The whole credibility of the US has collapsed totally... it shows the lack of of strategic thinking and therefore it questions why should we continue with relying on US security guarantees."
"When you have basically real estate agents discussing with seasoned diplomats and people who are much more experienced in negotiation... there is no balance here."
Q&A
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