Alastair Crooke: IRAN’S TRIGGER WARNING: ‘Withdraw from Lebanon… Any Violations and We Strike

Following October 7th, Israel adopted a new security doctrine, moving away from its foundational 'stay within borders' policy. This doctrine views the recent events as a 'holocaust' and mandates 'permanent security' by eliminating threats at their 'root,' including hostile populations. This justifies targeting civilians in Gaza and seeking to disarm Hezbollah in Lebanon, even if it means creating a 'desert' buffer zone.

The speaker details how the 7th of October was framed as 'a holocaust against them' (00:04:43), leading to the idea that 'the Holocaust is not over' (00:05:17) and Israel is 'always at the threshold of Holocaust' (00:05:27). This doctrine 'precludes the existence of Hezbollah continuing in adjacent to the northern towns' (00:09:46).

Despite the government's adoption of the 'permanent security' doctrine, there is significant internal dissent within the Israeli military and serious Israeli press. Critics argue that Israel is bogged down in seven unwinnable wars, lacks resources, and should revert to the earlier Ben-Gurion doctrine of staying within its borders.

The speaker notes 'quite a lot of push back within the military, the Israeli military' (00:07:21), with 'serious Israelis are saying you know this is ridiculous. We are bogged down in seven wars for aims which are not clear' (00:07:36).

Iran has entered a new phase of deterrence, characterized by an escalatory policy. This means any disruption to its interests, such as attacks on shipping or violations of ceasefires affecting its allies (like Lebanon), will be met with strong, escalating responses against US or Israeli targets. This policy is seen as a pressure point, especially as the West faces potential economic instability.

Crooke states, 'Iran has now moved to a new phase of deterrence' (00:24:12) and 'we are seeing a sort of escalatory sort of policy coming into being now' (00:25:36). He cites Iran's response to an attack on its tanker by escalating against US bases in Kuwait (00:24:59).

The conventional Western view of Hezbollah and other regional groups as mere 'proxies' of Iran is historically inaccurate. The speaker argues that the Shi'a influence in the region predates the Safavid state, and figures like Hassan Nasrallah are highly respected strategists whose advice Iran often seeks, rather than simply dictating terms to them.

Crooke argues, 'it doesn't reflect history because the whole of that area was in fact shei for many years' (00:21:06) and 'it's the Sapphavids that became the proxies of the Lebanese she if anything rather than the other way around' (00:21:57). He adds that Iran 'not only respected him hugely as a statesman... but as a wise person' (00:22:23) and 'more often than not I think it was Hassan Nasola giving advice to Iran' (00:22:34).

A bill is reportedly moving through the US Congress to completely merge the Israeli and American militaries. This fusion would encompass data, AI, technology sharing, research and development, and missile production, effectively making the two forces interchangeable. This raises significant questions about American sovereignty and its military-industrial complex.

Crooke mentions, 'passing through Congress is a bill to merge the Israeli and American militaries completely fuse them together in data sharing, AI sharing, technology sharing, research and development, missile um technology, building of missiles' (00:45:17).