Trump Blinked. Iran Won. Now What? (w/ Bill Kristol) | Bulwark Podcast
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's desire for a deal enabled Iran to secure favorable terms, including 'environmental protection fees' for Strait passage.
- ❖Traditional Iran hawks within the Republican party are expected to mute their objections and support Trump's deal.
- ❖The Iran deal is unlikely to lead to a return to normal, with continued Iranian muscle-flexing and persistent high gas prices.
- ❖Trump's attempt to link the Iran deal to the Abraham Accords was met with 'literal silence' from Arab leaders.
- ❖The DOJ is seen as weaponized, selectively targeting left-wing activists for Cuba aid while ignoring similar actions by Trump allies.
- ❖Concerns about Trump's undisclosed health issues are heightened by the high stakes of current foreign policy decisions.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Victory in Deal Negotiations
The hosts argue that Iran effectively 'twisted the knife' during negotiations, securing a deal that allows them to charge 'environmental protection fees' for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a thinly veiled toll. This outcome is seen as a significant win for Iran, as it grants them continued influence and financial benefits without fully conceding on nuclear issues or regional power projection.
Bill Kristol states, 'Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that and are twisting the knife a little... giving him enough cover so that Trump will end up with a deal that'll be murky.' Tim Miller notes Iran's 'environmental protection fee' as a strategic move. (, )
2Failure to Achieve US Objectives in Iran Policy
The original goals of the Trump administration's Iran policy—complete surrender, regime change, freedom for Iranian people, limiting regional power projection, and a clear resolution of the nuclear issue—have all been abandoned or significantly compromised. The hosts assert that the US is not achieving any of these outcomes, leading to a 'disastrous' situation.
Tim Miller lists the original goals: 'complete and total surrender,' 'regime change,' 'freedom for the Iranian people,' 'limit or end their ability to project power in the region,' and 'clear and unambiguous resolution of the nuclear issue.' He concludes, 'all of those are off the table now.' Bill Kristol adds, 'how can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground?'
3Political Spin and Fractures Among Trump's Allies
Despite initial 'angry reactions' from pro-war allies like Mark Levin and Lindsey Graham regarding the Iran deal, the hosts predict that most Trump-supporting hawks will quickly 'circle the wagons' and spin the deal positively. However, they also foresee some fractures, particularly from the 'America First' crowd who might crow about being right, and 'old school Republicans' who are less excited to fall in line.
Tim Miller notes the 'initial quite angry reaction from the Mark Leven of the world, Lindsey Graham, FDD' but observes 'as the hours go on... they all start to, you know, look at the bright side.' Bill Kristol predicts, 'by tomorrow the Trump supporting hawks will 80% be Trump supporters and they'll abandon their actual principled objections.'
4Weaponization of the Justice Department
The hosts discuss the DOJ's investigation into left-wing streamer Hassan and Code Pink co-founder Medea Benjamin for aid convoys to Cuba, despite their claims of clearing it with OFAC. This is framed as a deliberate tactic to target political foes who are unlikely to receive strong defense from the Democratic establishment, mirroring past actions against figures like John Bolton and Jim Comey.
Tim Miller states, 'federal investigators are serving subpoenas to uh left-wing streamer Hassan and the Code Pink co-founder Madia Benjamin as part of a probe into their aid convoys to Cuba.' He adds, 'they pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback.'
Bottom Line
The Iran deal's murkiness and ongoing Iranian assertiveness will prevent a return to normal, leading to persistent higher gas prices and continued regional instability.
Consumers will likely face sustained economic impacts, and the Middle East will remain a flashpoint, requiring ongoing US attention without clear leverage.
Companies in energy security, alternative fuels, or maritime risk management might see increased demand for their services due to continued volatility in global energy markets and shipping lanes.
Trump's administration may pivot to Cuba for a 'cleaner win' after the perceived defeat in Iran, potentially escalating tensions and laying groundwork for military action.
This shift could create a new foreign policy crisis, diverting resources and attention, and potentially leading to human rights concerns and regional destabilization in the Caribbean.
Organizations focused on human rights, international law, or regional stability in Latin America and the Caribbean should prepare for increased advocacy and monitoring efforts.
Undisclosed health issues of a sitting president, especially during high-stakes foreign policy negotiations, can create psychological pressures that might lead to more extreme or risk-taking decisions.
Lack of transparency about a leader's health can erode public trust, fuel speculation, and potentially influence critical national and international policy choices, increasing global uncertainty.
Journalism and watchdog organizations have an increased imperative to push for greater transparency regarding the health of public officials, particularly those in positions of immense power, to ensure accountability and informed public discourse.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Iran charging an 'environmental protection fee' instead of a toll on the Strait of Hormuz.
This highlights Iran's strategic use of 'liberal bureaucratic nomenclature' to achieve its objectives while providing Trump political cover, demonstrating a sophisticated approach to international relations.
Critique of Dave Rubin's consistently wrong predictions on the Iran war.
This segment illustrates the 'MAGA propaganda sphere's' tendency to ignore facts and spin narratives, regardless of outcomes, and raises questions about media accountability and audience loyalty in polarized environments.
The 'literal silence' from Arab leaders when Trump suggested Iran join the Abraham Accords.
This reveals the profound disconnect between Trump's diplomatic ambitions and regional realities, underscoring the complexity of Middle Eastern alliances and rivalries.
Quotes
"Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that and are twisting the knife a little, but also... giving him enough cover so that Trump will end up with a deal that'll be murky."
"If you're an honest, you know, hawk, you need to be, you need to say this deal is a defeat for the US."
"How can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground? I this is even not even talking about the broader effects around the world of our allies, lack of confidence in us and so forth. I mean it's a pretty disastrous thing honestly for the US."
"They pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback."
Q&A
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