Progressives Are Taking Over | Ryan Grim | TMR
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Democratic Party's corporate wing is more 'back-heeled' and 'flailing' than ever before, a stark contrast to previous political cycles.
- ❖Voter respect for Democratic Party institutions and leaders like Chuck Schumer has significantly eroded, even among party donors.
- ❖The DNC failed to release an autopsy report, with speculation it was either poorly done or a 'limited hangout' to protect certain individuals.
- ❖Kamala Harris's campaign lacked a clear 'brand identity,' partly due to major donors preventing promotion of popular Biden policies like antitrust and labor.
- ❖The Biden administration's Gaza policy severely reduced enthusiasm among Democratic voters and grassroots organizers, who felt 'disgusted' and demotivated.
- ❖The Supreme Court's assault on the Voting Rights Act, making partisan gerrymandering legal while drawing VRA-compliant districts illegal, is seen as a 'new Jim Crow' era.
- ❖Younger CBC members are significantly more progressive than older members, potentially leading to a leftward pull within the caucus despite VRA challenges.
- ❖A debate emerged around the credibility of 'transpartisan' coalitions, specifically regarding Marjorie Taylor Greene's anti-genocide stance and AOC's refusal to collaborate with her.
Insights
1Democratic Establishment's Unprecedented Flailing
Sam Seder and Ryan Grim observe that the corporate wing of the Democratic Party is currently more 'back-heeled' and 'flailing' than they have witnessed in over two decades. This indicates a significant loss of control and strategic direction compared to previous challenges from figures like Bernie Sanders or AOC.
Sam Seder states, 'There's never been a time where I think the establishment corporate wing of the party was as back-heeled as they are now... and they're flailing in a way that I also haven't seen them before.' Ryan Grim confirms this, noting the 'anger continues to build' and voter respect for institutions like Chuck Schumer has 'gone'.
2DNC Autopsy Failure and Campaign Brand Issues
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) reportedly failed to produce an autopsy report, with suggestions it was either too poorly executed to release or a deliberate 'limited hangout' to shield certain figures. This failure is linked to Kamala Harris's campaign lacking a clear 'brand identity,' which was further hampered by donor influence that prevented the promotion of popular Biden administration policies like antitrust and labor initiatives.
Sam Seder discusses the DNC autopsy's absence, stating, 'one of the stories that we've been given is that it was just done so poorly that it's embarrassing to show people.' He also critiques Harris's lack of a 'brand identity,' noting, 'she didn't really have a brand other than the Bratz summer type thing.' Ryan Grim adds that donor interests, such as Google's chief litigator fighting antitrust, prevented the campaign from promoting Biden's popular antitrust and labor agenda.
3Gaza Policy's Detrimental Impact on Democratic Enthusiasm
The Biden administration's unwavering stance on Gaza severely reduced enthusiasm among Democratic voters and crucial grassroots mobilizers. This policy created a 'moral question' that the campaign couldn't answer, leading to widespread disgust and a breakdown in the vital link between the national party and local activists, a loss that cannot be easily recreated with money.
Ryan Grim quotes a piece by Rob Flareity, stating, 'for many voters watching the horrific, painful god uh footage out of God, it became a moral question, one we didn't have a good answer for... it meaningfully reduced enthusiasm.' Sam Seder corroborates, saying, 'I was so disgusted by the policy that I didn't want to say anything nice about Biden.' He highlights the 'second order' problem: 'all of the people who are supposed to motivate people to go out are completely demoralized.'
4Supreme Court's Assault on Voting Rights Act and Political Realignment
The Supreme Court's current interpretation of the Voting Rights Act (VRA) allows partisan gerrymandering but makes it illegal to draw districts in line with the VRA, effectively ushering in a 'new Jim Crow' era. This attack is expected to result in a significant loss of black representatives and could force new, more progressive coalitions, particularly as younger Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) members are already more left-leaning.
Sam Seder states the Supreme Court's opinion is that 'it is legal to gerrymander for partisan purposes, but it is illegal to draw districts in line with the Voting Rights Act.' He predicts a loss of 'probably 20 seats of black representatives.' Ryan Grim notes that 'the younger CBC members are already... way to the left of the older CBC members,' suggesting potential shifts in coalition building.
5The Credibility of 'Transpartisan' Coalitions: MTG and AOC
A debate arose regarding the credibility and utility of forming 'transpartisan' coalitions, specifically concerning Marjorie Taylor Greene's (MTG) anti-genocide stance and AOC's refusal to work with her. Ryan Grim argued that MTG's actions against genocide and the 'Epstein class' should earn credibility, while Sam Seder countered that MTG's motivations were self-serving (after being spurned by Trump) and her material power was gone, making collaboration pointless and potentially whitewashing her other 'odious' policies.
Ryan Grim tweeted, 'MTG sacrificed her political career to stand against genocide, against Trump, against the Epstein class... If that doesn't earn credibility, I don't know what possibly could.' Sam Seder responded, arguing MTG 'didn't really sacrifice her political career' but took 'the only path that was available to her' after political setbacks. He questioned the benefit of such alliances, asking if it 'whitewash[es] Marjorie Taylor Green who still has a bunch of other odious um uh policy sets.'
Lessons
- Progressive candidates should leverage the widespread disillusionment with the Democratic establishment by offering clear, ideologically distinct platforms that address voter concerns.
- Democratic campaigns must develop authentic 'brand identities' that promote popular progressive policies (e.g., antitrust, labor rights) rather than being constrained by donor interests or a vague 'extension of Biden' strategy.
- Activists and voters should pressure Democratic leadership to adopt more principled and responsive foreign policies, particularly on issues with significant moral weight like Gaza, to prevent further erosion of grassroots enthusiasm.
- Advocates for voting rights and court reform need to highlight the Supreme Court's partisan rulings to mobilize support for structural changes and counter the 'revanchist era' in American jurisprudence.
- When considering 'transpartisan' alliances, political actors should critically assess the motivations and broader records of potential collaborators to avoid legitimizing harmful ideologies or individuals for marginal gains.
Quotes
"There's never been a time where I think the establishment corporate wing of the party was was as back healed as they are now, which is not to say that they still don't retain power in the party. Um, but they're more back healed than I've ever seen them before. and they're flailing in a way that I also haven't seen them before."
"The thing that was holding back the kind of Bernie and the squad was that Democratic primary voters still had a lot of respect for the institutions of the Democratic party and and and even for their individual leaders. That's gone."
"The problem I think that is that is becoming clear is that the the argument always used to be Democrats have to win this. So don't get too ambitious on an ideological level... And I think what's being revealed is that like this cadre of people don't know how to win, right? And don't necessarily care about winning outside of themselves."
"For many voters watching the horrific, painful god uh footage out of God, it became a moral question, one we didn't have a good answer for, in ways that may not be reflected in a poll, it meaningfully reduced enthusiasm."
"It is the current Supreme Court opinion is that it is legal to gerrymander for partisan purposes, but it is illegal to draw districts in line with the Voting Rights Act, which was an act of Congress that was passed repeatedly and renewed repeatedly."
"MTG sacrificed her political career to stand against genocide, against Trump, against the Epstein class, and to defend the survivors of Epstein's trafficking. If that doesn't earn credibility, I don't know what possibly could."
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