Venezuela Was Not Liberated (w/ Quico Toro) | Mona Charen Show

The guest explains that Venezuela's regime maintains control through a multi-layered repressive system. This includes SEBIN (civilian secret police), DGCIM (military counter-intelligence), the National Guard (anti-riot), and civilian 'colectivos.' These groups operate their own prison systems and torture chambers, monitoring communications and harassing citizens. This structure ensures that even if a top leader like Maduro is removed, the state's repressive capacity remains intact.

Venezuelans know their communications are monitored; outward signs of joy at regime setbacks lead to jail or torture. The 'people with guns are still the people with guns.' Citizens perform a 'ritual' of deleting messages and search history before leaving home.

The Trump administration's approach to Venezuela was framed by the guest as transactional, prioritizing access to Venezuelan oil over supporting democratic movements or human rights. This stance, while 'not ambiguous,' led to a profound sense of betrayal among the Venezuelan opposition, who had hoped for US support in establishing a democratic government after winning elections.

The Trump administration seemed 'quite comfortable' with the regime remaining intact as long as the US gained 'access to oil.' Trump's tweets about closing prisons were seen as negotiating demands, not actual agreements, and not the 'central thrust of American policy.'

Despite the democratic opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, winning the 2024 election by a 2-to-1 margin, they could not claim power. The guest acknowledges that US officials like Marco Rubio and Donald Trump were 'probably not wrong' in stating that Machado lacked the military support needed to stabilize the country. The military and security leadership, implicated in human rights abuses, corruption, and drug trafficking, view a democratic future as one where they face jail or exile, creating a 'twisted logic' for maintaining the current regime.

Maria Corina Machado's stand-in candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, clearly acknowledges the election win. However, the military leadership's human rights records and involvement in corruption mean they cannot accept a democratic transition without risking their freedom.

The guest refutes claims that Venezuela intentionally 'dumped' prison populations into the US or that the Tren de Aragua gang is controlled by the Maduro administration. He attributes the 'dumping' narrative to a misremembered 'Scarface' plot (Mariel boatlift) and a misreported Breitbart headline. Tren de Aragua is described as a prison gang that evolved into a criminal empire from within a prison, with some members migrating due to Venezuela's collapse, but not as a government-orchestrated entity.

The 'Scarface' plot involved Fidel Castro in 1981, not Venezuela. A DHS report was 'misreported in a Breitbart headline.' Tren de Aragua is a 'relatively small prison gang' (3-8,000 members) that became dominant in a prison and ran a criminal empire from there, not controlled by the government.

The guest identifies a key parallel between Hugo Chavez and Donald Trump: their need to dramatize their power and the public's powerlessness. This is achieved by making absurd decisions and ensuring they stick, often through symbolic gestures. Chavez, for example, changed the country's name to the 'Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela,' demonstrating arbitrary power.

Both leaders reject checks and balances. Trump's actions like putting his name on the Kennedy Center or needing a giant ballroom next to the White House are about demonstrating 'arbitrary power.' Chavez changed the country's name, akin to 'calling this like the MAGA states of America.'

Reviving Venezuela's oil industry is a complex, multi-year undertaking, not a quick solution. The country's best light oil wells are depleted, leaving mostly 'extra heavy crudes' that are difficult and capital-intensive to extract. Decades of neglect under Chavez, including lack of investment, maintenance, and the exodus of PhD geologists, have left much of the infrastructure in disrepair. Wells cannot simply be turned off and on without losing pressure and solidifying the oil.

Venezuelan oil is 'extra heavy crudes,' more like tar, requiring mixing with lighter crudes to flow. The industry was 'horribly neglected' from 2003-2019. PhD geologists 'all left.' Turning off an oil well causes loss of pressure and heat, solidifying the tar into asphalt underground.