Paul Craig Roberts: Nobody Voted For This America… So How Did It Happen?
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Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Netanyahu's primary goal is a 'Greater Israel,' using US military and financial power to eliminate regional adversaries like Libya, Iraq, Syria, and now Iran.
- ❖Netanyahu intervened in US-Iran nuclear negotiations by demanding Iran give up its missiles, a condition Iran cannot accept, effectively forcing Trump's hand towards war.
- ❖The Israeli lobby exerts significant control over US opinion, Congress, and elements within the military-security complex, which profits from conflict.
- ❖A war with Iran risks severe consequences for the US, including potential defeats for its military assets and a dangerous escalation to nuclear weapons.
- ❖Russia and China are criticized for their perceived lack of strategic vision and failure to form a robust mutual defense alliance with Iran, which could have deterred this conflict.
- ❖The US military might be underestimating Iran's capabilities, viewing a potential war as a distant missile and air campaign rather than a protracted ground conflict.
Insights
1Netanyahu's 'Greater Israel' Strategy and US Manipulation
Paul Craig Roberts argues that Benjamin Netanyahu is committed to the 'Zionist dream of greater Israel' and has successfully used American money and military power to eliminate regional obstacles such as Libya, Iraq, and Syria. Iran is identified as the largest remaining obstacle, and Netanyahu is actively working to force the US into a war with Iran, knowing Israel cannot confront Iran alone.
Netanyahu's commitment to 'Greater Israel' and his successful use of American resources in the 21st century to eliminate obstacles like Libya, Iraq, and Syria. ()
2Netanyahu Outsmarts Trump's Negotiation Tactics
Trump's negotiation style involves making threats and then withdrawing them for a deal. He was pursuing a nuclear agreement with Iran. However, Netanyahu intervened by imposing an additional, unacceptable condition: Iran must give up its missiles. This move, Roberts claims, outsmarted Trump, leaving him in a position where his threats of attack, initially a bluff, now appear to demand action due to Iran's inability to accept the new terms.
Trump's negotiation style of threats and withdrawals was working with Iran for a nuclear deal. Netanyahu intervened, imposing the condition that Iran must give up its missiles, which is unacceptable to Iran. (, )
3Pervasive Israeli Influence in US Policy
Roberts asserts that Israeli influence is widespread in the United States, affecting public opinion, Congress, and the Trump administration itself, which he describes as consisting 'essentially of Zionists.' This influence, combined with the interests of the American military-security complex (armaments manufacturers, security agencies), creates a powerful pro-war bloc against Iran.
Israelis control much of US opinion and Congress. The Trump administration's major appointments are described as 'Zionist.' The military-security complex also benefits from war. (, )
4Catastrophic Consequences of a US-Iran War
A war with Iran could lead to severe repercussions for the US, including the potential sinking of American aircraft carriers and successful attacks on US bases, significantly damaging American prestige. Such defeats could escalate pressure to use nuclear weapons, potentially drawing Russia and China into a broader conflict due to their proximity and investments in the region.
Concerns within the US military about potential Iranian capabilities to sink aircraft carriers or attack bases, leading to calls for nuclear weapons and involvement of Russia and China. (, )
5Critique of Russia and China's Strategic Inaction
Roberts criticizes Russia and China for their failure to provide material support to Iran or form a mutual defense treaty. He argues that visible actions, such as deploying S-500 air defense systems and advanced jet fighters to Iran, or China threatening Taiwan, could strengthen voices within the US military advocating against war. Their inaction, he suggests, indicates a lack of strategic vision and an over-reliance on 'idealistic dreams' of making deals.
Russia and China have not visibly supported Iran with S-500 systems, jet fighters, or submarines. A mutual defense treaty between Russia, China, and Iran would have prevented the current threat. (, )
Bottom Line
The US military, despite its power, may be underestimating Iran's capacity for resistance and viewing a potential conflict as a distant air/missile war, not a ground war of attrition, which could lead to miscalculations.
This misperception could lead to a protracted and costly conflict, far beyond initial American expectations, potentially triggering unforeseen escalations and global instability.
For analysts, understanding the potential for a 'war of attrition' scenario, rather than a quick surgical strike, is critical for accurate risk assessment and scenario planning in the region.
The internal dynamics within the Trump administration and the US military are crucial, with 'reasonable people' in the military potentially pushing back against war, but their influence is uncertain and likely to be exerted late in the decision-making process.
The outcome hinges on whether these internal voices can overcome the combined pressure from the Israel lobby and the military-industrial complex, suggesting a highly unpredictable and volatile situation.
Observers should monitor any signs of dissent or strategic warnings from within the US military establishment, as these could be key indicators of a potential shift in policy or a last-minute intervention to prevent war.
Lessons
- Recognize the significant influence of external lobbies and internal economic interests (military-industrial complex) on US foreign policy decisions, particularly in the Middle East.
- Analyze geopolitical situations not just on stated objectives, but on underlying strategic goals of all actors, such as Netanyahu's 'Greater Israel' agenda.
- Consider the potential for 'outsmarting' in high-stakes negotiations, where one party's tactics (e.g., Trump's threats) can be leveraged by another to force an unintended outcome.
- Evaluate the risks of military escalation beyond initial projections, including the potential for nuclear conflict and the involvement of other major powers, when assessing regional stability.
- Understand that the perceived inaction or lack of a cohesive strategic alliance among nations like Russia, China, and Iran can create vulnerabilities that aggressive actors may exploit.
Quotes
"Netanyahu is committed to the Zionist dream of greater Israel and he has successfully used American money and American blood in the 21st century to eliminate the obstacles to greater Israel such as Libya, Iraq, and Syria."
"He's been outsmarted by Netanyahu, who once all the negotiations are underway and the aircraft carriers are deployed and Trump's made these threats, now nothing can come of Trump's threats because of this condition the Israelis have imposed that is totally unacceptable to the Iranians."
"The failure of the Russians and the Chinese and the Iranians to reach their version of NATO is the reason that we have this threat right now."
"I am convinced that Donald Trump was trying to forestall any attack by getting a deal with Iran, which they're willing to do, I'm sure, uh not to make nuclear weapons and to have inspectors. You know, we already had that deal, didn't we? And for some reason it was destroyed not by the Iranians but I think by incessant propaganda from Israel that caused the Americans to destroy the agreement."
Q&A
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