Col. Larry Wilkerson: The Strategy Trump Is Betting Everything On Is Crumbling
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump is in a 'cul-de-sac' regarding Iran, pressured by Miriam Adelson's political money and Netanyahu's demands.
- ❖Netanyahu is a 'lying genocidal maniac' who has consistently made false claims about Iran's nuclear program for decades.
- ❖The US military is a 'paper tiger' and would be 'utterly destroyed' in a conflict with a near-peer power, especially if Iran is backed by Russia and China.
- ❖Israel's military (IDF) is characterized as 'murderers' rather than courageous soldiers, having not fought a peer adversary in 20 years and relying on stolen technology.
- ❖US foreign policy, including the Ukraine conflict, is ultimately a strategy to weaken Russia as a 'preparation of the battlefield' for a future confrontation with China.
- ❖Russia is pursuing a 'final solution' in Ukraine, aiming to destroy Ukraine's viability and military, with no intention of a ceasefire.
- ❖The European Union and NATO are 'falling apart,' and their leaders are 'not long for this world.'
- ❖Saudi Arabia's foreign policy is opportunistic, aligning wherever it benefits them most, as evidenced by selling oil in Yuan to China.
Insights
1Trump's Geopolitical Trap Regarding Iran
Donald Trump is caught between powerful pro-Israel lobbies, exemplified by Miriam Adelson's financial influence, and Benjamin Netanyahu's relentless push for conflict with Iran. Despite Wilkerson's belief that Trump does not desire war with Iran, these forces are effectively 'dragging him in' to a conflict. Netanyahu's demands, such as dismantling Iran's entire enrichment capability and ballistic missile program, are deemed impossible for any Iranian government to accept, thus ensuring a path to war.
Col. Wilkerson states, 'Trump Nema is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Rock is Miriam Adlesen... and a strangle hole on the Congress... And the hard place is BB Netanyahu, a lying genocidal maniac.' He adds, 'If Trump doesn't initiate this... BB's going to do it. And then... they are going to probe him into doing it.'
2US Military as a 'Paper Tiger'
The United States military, despite its outward projection of power, is fundamentally weak and unprepared for a conflict with a near-peer or peer adversary. Wilkerson cites General Lakes' article from the Quincy Institute, which argues that the US would be 'utterly destroyed' in such a war. This weakness is exacerbated if a country like Iran were to receive full backing from Russia and China, potentially elevating Iran to a near-peer status.
Col. Wilkerson refers to an article by General Lakes stating 'the United States is a paper tiger.' He elaborates, 'if we go to war with a near peer power or a peer power, we will be utterly destroyed.' He suggests Iran, 'certainly backed fully by Russia and China,' could achieve 'near-peer power' status.
3Netanyahu's History of Deception on Iran's Nuclear Program
Benjamin Netanyahu has a decades-long history of falsely claiming Iran is on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb. Wilkerson recounts numerous instances where Netanyahu's predictions of Iran acquiring a bomb within a few years or months proved incorrect, including during the lead-up to the Iraq War, which was justified by false WMD claims. This pattern of deception is used to generate momentum for his desired military actions against Iran.
Wilkerson details Netanyahu's repeated predictions: 'in 95 he said in three years they'll have a bomb. In 97 he said in two years they'll have a bomb.' He continues, 'Then he picked up on the theme again. Iraq will Iran will have a bomb within a year or two. This is the liar.' He notes US intelligence agencies 'agreed that Iran had not made a decision to build a bomb' despite Netanyahu's claims.
4Critique of Israeli Military Conduct and Capabilities
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are not a courageous military but rather 'murderers,' primarily engaging in conflicts where they hold overwhelming power against women, children, and lightly armed guerillas. Wilkerson asserts that much of Israel's technological 'genius' is stolen from the US. He also highlights the IDF's rising post-traumatic stress and suicide rates, attributing it to their conduct.
Wilkerson states, 'the IDF today... are not soldiers anymore. They are murderers.' He adds, 'They have not fought anyone of consequence except women and children and guerillas with AKs in 20 plus years.' He also claims, 'most of that [technology] they stole from us.'
5US Foreign Policy's Ultimate Target: China
The underlying objective of current US foreign policy, including actions in Ukraine and against Russia, is to prepare the 'battlefield' for a future confrontation with China. This involves 'picking off the pieces' and weakening potential Chinese allies or resource providers before a direct confrontation. The war in Ukraine is framed as a means to bleed Russia significantly, potentially leading to Putin's fall and control over Russian oil assets, thereby making the 'route to China easier.'
Wilkerson states, 'there are people behind this administration whose target is ultimately China and they're picking off the pieces... before they get to China.' He suggests the 'Ukrainian operation from the US side... is really all about China. We have to take care of Russia first before we can take on China.'
6Russia's 'Final Solution' in Ukraine
Russia is not interested in a ceasefire in Ukraine, viewing it as an opportunity for Ukraine to rearm and reposition forces. Instead, Russia is pursuing a 'final solution' to destroy Ukraine's viability. This involves seizing all defensible territory with Russian citizenry, dismantling Ukraine's economic and agricultural infrastructure, and utterly destroying its military, leaving no army or NATO-connected territory for Ukraine.
Wilkerson asserts, 'Russia's not going to give a ceasefire period.' He explains, 'their plan now is to destroy Ukraine... They are going to take everything that is remotely defensible... and everything that is even remotely connected with Ukraine's viability... They're going to destroy it or they're going to take it.'
Bottom Line
The potential for Russia and China to physically escort Iranian oil tankers through strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb.
This direct military intervention would challenge US naval dominance and could trigger a global confrontation, potentially escalating to nuclear war if the US attempts to interdict these convoys.
This scenario highlights the vulnerability of global trade routes to geopolitical realignments and the potential for non-Western powers to assert control over critical energy flows, forcing a re-evaluation of naval strategy and international law regarding freedom of navigation.
The rapid decline in Israel's Jewish population, with a net annual outflow of approximately 20,000 people and a reported loss of 2 million Jewish citizens, despite draconian restrictions on leaving.
This demographic shift undermines Israel's long-term stability and its self-proclaimed status as a safe haven for Jews. It suggests a deep dissatisfaction within the population regarding the current political and security environment, potentially impacting its military and economic resilience.
This trend could force a re-evaluation of Israeli domestic and foreign policy, potentially leading to increased internal pressure for peace or, conversely, more desperate measures to maintain control and population. It also presents a challenge to the global Zionist movement and its narrative.
Key Concepts
Paper Tiger
A concept used to describe a seemingly powerful entity that is, in reality, weak and ineffective. Col. Wilkerson applies this to the US military, arguing that despite its image, it lacks the capability to win a war against a near-peer adversary.
Cul-de-sac Strategy
A situation where a political or military strategy leads to a dead end, with no viable exit or alternative. Wilkerson uses this to describe Trump's position on Iran, trapped between conflicting pressures and unable to achieve a diplomatic solution without severe political repercussions.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate assumptions about US military invincibility and the strategic capabilities of its adversaries, particularly in a multi-polar world with potential Russian and Chinese backing.
- Critically analyze statements from political leaders, especially those with a history of making unsubstantiated claims, such as Benjamin Netanyahu regarding Iran's nuclear program.
- Monitor the geopolitical shifts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, paying close attention to the alliances forming between non-Western powers (e.g., Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia) and their implications for global energy markets and trade routes.
- Consider the long-term strategic goals behind major international conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, and how they might serve as 'battlefield preparation' for larger confrontations with economic rivals like China.
Notable Moments
Discussion of Trump's 'cul-de-sac' position regarding Iran, caught between powerful pro-Israel lobbies and Netanyahu's demands.
This highlights the significant external and internal pressures on US foreign policy decisions, suggesting that even a President's stated intentions can be overridden by entrenched interests, leading to potentially unwanted conflicts.
Critique of the IDF as 'murderers' and the assertion that they have not fought a peer adversary in 20 years, relying on stolen technology.
This challenges the common perception of the IDF as a highly capable and moral fighting force, suggesting a decline in military ethics and actual combat readiness against serious threats, which could have profound implications for regional stability.
The claim that US strategy in Ukraine is ultimately about weakening Russia to prepare for a confrontation with China.
This reframes the Ukraine conflict from a regional dispute to a proxy war within a larger, global strategic competition, suggesting that the US is willing to sacrifice Ukrainian lives and European stability to achieve its long-term objectives against China.
Quotes
"More dangerous than that warship is the weapon that can send the warship to the bottom of the sea."
"The strongest military force in the world may at times be struck by so hard that it cannot get up."
"Trump Nema is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Rock is Miriam Adlesen... and the hard place is BB Netanyahu, a lying genocidal maniac."
"The IDF today... are not soldiers anymore. They are murderers."
"Beware of the Saudis. They'll go wherever the going is best for them regardless of allegiances, alliances, or anything else."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."
Bibi DEMANDS Ground Troops As Marines Rushed to Iran
"Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for US ground troops in Iran, framing air strikes as insufficient, while the US rushes Marines to the region and struggles to secure the Strait of Hormuz against surprisingly capable Iranian defenses."
BREAKING: Israel BOMBS Major Iran Gas Site; Top Mullah ELIMINATED; Iran Vows VENGEACE | TBN Israel
"Israel and the United States have escalated their 'Roaring Lion War' against Iran, striking its largest gas facilities, eliminating key intelligence and military figures, and disrupting missile production, while Iran threatens a broader energy war in the Gulf."
Col. Jacques Baud: Middle East on Fire — Is This the Start of Something Bigger?
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, arguing that Western misunderstanding of Iranian culture and strategic duplicity have forced Iran into a position of necessary escalation, ultimately degrading the West's own strategic posture."