Patrick Henningsen: Is a US-Iran War Really Inevitable? Iran Could Devastate the Attacks!
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US and Israel are fully coordinated on Iran policy, with US envoys like Steve Wickoff serving Israeli interests, not neutral US diplomacy.
- ❖Israel's objective is not just regime change but the partition of Iran, mirroring the 'Syria treatment.'
- ❖Iran has developed 'maximum deterrence,' threatening immediate retaliation against US regional targets and Israel if attacked.
- ❖Israel's missile defense systems are unlikely to withstand a sustained, full-scale missile barrage from Iran.
- ❖A US-Israel war with Iran would quickly expand into a regional conflict involving at least six to seven countries.
- ❖Donald Trump's 'transactional' approach to foreign policy offers no short-term rewards for a war with Iran, making it a high-risk political gamble.
- ❖Henningsen proposes a new JCPOA where Israel must also submit to IAEA inspections and sign non-proliferation agreements, given its undeclared nuclear arsenal.
- ❖Russia and China are strategically aligning with Iran through economic incentives (Belt and Road, energy purchases), aiming to make Iran 'sanction-proof.'
- ❖US diplomatic efforts in Ukraine are failing due to a lack of serious commitment and Trump's 'international gangsterism' negotiation style.
- ❖Russia's strategy in Ukraine is attrition, expecting a rapid collapse and eventual surrender from Ukraine, similar to historical Russian war endings.
Insights
1US-Israel Coordination and Israeli Objectives in Iran
Patrick Henningsen argues that the US and Israel operate in complete coordination regarding Iran, dismissing the 'good cop, bad cop' narrative as theater. He states that Israel's ultimate goal is not just regime change but the partition of Iran into smaller regions, akin to the 'Syria treatment,' and that Israel relies on the US to execute this 'heavy lifting.' He frames US envoy Steve Wickoff as an 'Israeli asset' rather than a neutral diplomat, citing his past actions and public appearances at Israeli lobby functions.
Henningsen states, 'Every single aspect of Israel's military... is coordinated and is assisted is facilitated by the United States 100%.' He adds, 'Israel wants to take down the Iranian government. Full stop. Not only that, they want to partition Iran into smaller regions. They want to give it the Syria treatment.' Regarding Wickoff, he says, 'He's not a US envoy. He is an Israeli asset.'
2Iran's Deterrence and Israel's Vulnerability to Missile Attacks
Henningsen emphasizes Iran's 'maximum deterrence' posture, warning that any attack will be met with immediate retaliation against both Israel and US military targets in the region. He asserts that Israel's advanced missile defense systems, such as THAAD or David's Sling 3.0, would be insufficient to protect against a sustained missile barrage from Iran's IRGC, citing the damage inflicted during the '12-day war' and the potential for societal fracturing in Israel if such an attack were prolonged.
Henningsen notes, 'Iran's going for maximum deterrence. They said any attack on us, we will regard this as an attack by Israel and the US and we will... hit US targets in the region, military targets as well as Israel.' He questions, 'I really can't see how Israel will be able to protect itself from a sustained missile barrage of salvos from the Islamic Republic of Iran... I just don't see it.'
3The Strategic Alignment of Iran, Russia, and China
The podcast highlights the deepening economic and strategic ties between Iran, Russia, and China. Henningsen explains that these alliances are driven by mutual economic incentives, such as Iran's role in the 'middle corridor' of the Eurasian trade route (connecting Moscow to the Indian Ocean) and China's reliance on Iranian oil and the Belt and Road initiative traversing Iran. This growing alignment is expected to eventually render Iran 'sanction-proof' and fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape, challenging the 'Anglo-American-led hegemonic geopolitical map.'
Henningsen states, 'economic relations between Iran and Russia... their future for trades are tied together.' He adds, 'Iran is the middle corridor... for China, the economic incentives are pretty obvious... supplying China's energy and also the Belt and Road overland routes traversed through Iran.' He concludes that 'Iran will eventually become sanction proof.'
4Critique of US Diplomacy and Trump's 'International Gangsterism'
Henningsen is highly critical of the US's diplomatic approach, particularly under the Trump administration. He characterizes figures like Steve Wickoff as 'front of house PR men' lacking the depth and commitment required for serious negotiations. He describes Trump's negotiation style as 'international gangsterism,' relying on threats, military attacks, and economic coercion rather than developing frameworks for binding agreements. This approach, he argues, has rendered the US 'agreement capable' in the eyes of the world, leading to failures in both Iran and Ukraine.
Henningsen calls Wickoff 'a front of house PR man' and states, 'he's not a skilled diplomat.' He describes Trump's methods: 'He just wants, oh, I'm going to make a deal and I'm going to threaten you until you sign that deal... this isn't statecraft. This is just like international gangsterism.' He asserts that 'the US is not agreement capable.'
Bottom Line
Israel's undeclared nuclear arsenal (estimated 70-300 warheads) is used as a tool for 'nuclear blackmail' against other nations, including the United States, allowing it to dictate regional policy without accountability.
This challenges the legitimacy of US and Israeli demands for Iran to halt its nuclear program while Israel maintains a secret arsenal, creating a double standard that undermines international non-proliferation efforts and fuels regional instability.
Any future nuclear deal with Iran (JCPOA 2.0) could gain international legitimacy and increase regional stability if it included a reciprocal demand for Israel to open its facilities to IAEA inspections and sign non-proliferation treaties.
The US military's evacuation of heavy assets and personnel from Iraq is a strong indication of an intent to attack Iran, as US targets within Iraq would become 'fair game' once hostilities commence.
This move signals a strategic preparation for conflict, suggesting that the current 'pause' in escalation is tactical rather than a genuine de-escalation, and that the US is willing to sacrifice its forward operating positions in Iraq for a potential strike on Iran.
Regional actors, particularly Iraq, could leverage this withdrawal to assert greater sovereignty over their airspace and territory, potentially complicating US military operations and fostering stronger regional alliances independent of US influence.
Lessons
- Analyze geopolitical developments in West Asia through a lens that questions the stated intentions of major powers, particularly the US and Israel, and considers underlying strategic coordination.
- Evaluate the potential for regional conflict by assessing the deterrence capabilities of non-Western states (e.g., Iran's missile arsenal) and the implications of shifting global alliances (e.g., Iran-Russia-China axis).
- Consider how 'diplomatic' efforts by Western powers might serve as 'theater' or leverage for other strategic objectives, rather than genuine attempts at de-escalation or binding agreements.
Quotes
"Every single aspect of Israel's military... is coordinated and is assisted is facilitated by the United States 100%."
"Israel wants to take down the Iranian government. Full stop. Not only that, they want to partition Iran into smaller regions. They want to give it the Syria treatment."
"Iran's going for maximum deterrence. They said any attack on us, we will regard this as an attack by Israel and the US and we will... hit US targets in the region, military targets as well as Israel."
"Israel must open up to inspections by the IAEA... and must sign on to non-proliferation agreement like every other nuclear state. Because it's not fair on any level that the US can bomb and attack a sovereign nation based on a nuclear threat of which they have no evidence that Iran has or is pursuing a nuclear weapon."
"Effectively Israel has been... able to blackmail every single country including the United States of America."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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