Trump PANICS As US Embassy POUNDED In Iraq
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iraqi militias, empowered by the 2003 US invasion, are now effectively attacking the US embassy in Baghdad with drones.
- ❖US and Israeli forces have reportedly bombed elementary schools in Iran, potentially due to misidentification of targets based on names like 'Shahed' (a drone brand).
- ❖A UK security advisor judged that Iran offered a 'surprising' and 'significant' nuclear deal that could have prevented war, but US negotiators like Jared Kushner and Steve Witoff were seen as lacking expertise and seriousness.
- ❖Iraq's political landscape is increasingly anti-American, with former allies becoming unreliable due to democratic pressures.
- ❖Israel publicly calls for an uprising in Iran while privately warning US diplomats that protesters would be 'slaughtered' by Iranian security forces.
Insights
1US Embassy in Baghdad Under Drone Attack
Iraqi militias, empowered by the 2003 US invasion and aligned with Iran, are conducting effective drone attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad. These militias can operate close to the Green Zone, making their communications unjammable and allowing them to hit targets with precision, posing significant risk to US personnel.
Footage of air battles and a massive explosion inside the US embassy compound, with drones coming from Iraqi militias. The hosts explain that these militias were empowered by the US during the 2003 invasion, and their proximity allows for unjammable communications.
2US/Israel Bombing Elementary Schools in Iran
US and Israeli forces have reportedly bombed elementary schools in Iran, including one named 'Shahed Kmeni Elementary boys school'. The hosts suggest this could be a result of AI or intern errors, where the word 'Shahed' (a common name and also a brand of Iranian drones) was misinterpreted as a drone factory, leading to the bombing of a civilian target.
Reports of hitting a girl school and then a boy school (Shahed Kmeni Elementary boys school). The hosts cite the similarity of 'Shahed' to the drone brand and another instance of bombing 'Police Park' due to misidentification.
3Missed 'Surprising' Nuclear Deal with Iran Due to Unqualified US Negotiators
A UK national security advisor, Jonathan Pal, reportedly judged that Iran's offer on its nuclear program was 'significant enough to prevent a rush to war' and 'surprising' in its concessions, exceeding previous offers. However, the deal went nowhere, with sources expressing 'widespread concern' about the expertise of US negotiators like Jared Kushner and Steve Witoff, who were perceived as not understanding nuclear physics or being serious about a deal.
Guardian report detailing Jonathan Pal's assessment of Iran's 'surprising' offer. Gulf diplomats quoted as regarding Witoff and Kushner as 'Israeli assets' and noting their lack of technical understanding, using terms like 'industrial grade' instead of 'weapons grade'.
4Iraq's Political Landscape Increasingly Anti-American
Despite US efforts to establish democracy, Iraq's political figures, including former US allies like Nouri al-Maliki, are becoming less reliable due to democratic pressures and rising anti-American sentiment. Key nationalist figures like Muqtada al-Sadr are encouraging Iraqis to unite against the US and Israel, further destabilizing the region where the US invested trillions and thousands of lives.
Nouri al-Maliki becoming less reliable. Muqtada al-Sadr encouraging unity against the US and Israel. Sistani issuing a fatwa close to calling for fighting the US and Israel.
5Israel's Contradictory Stance on Iranian Protests
Senior Israeli officials privately informed US diplomats that Iranian protesters 'will get slaughtered' if they take to the streets against their government. This contradicts Israel's public calls for a popular uprising in Iran, revealing a cynical understanding of the severe repression faced by Iranian opposition.
Washington Post report citing a State Department cable detailing Israeli officials' private warnings. Drop Site report backing up Israel's claim that Iranian security services would crush opposition.
Bottom Line
The US media's tendency towards 'post-mortem' reporting rather than 'pre-mortem' analysis prevents actionable public discourse on foreign policy decisions.
By reporting on critical geopolitical failures only after they occur, the media misses opportunities to inform the public when policy decisions are still actionable, thereby limiting public influence on war and peace.
Develop media platforms and analytical frameworks that prioritize real-time, actionable intelligence and 'pre-mortem' analysis to empower public understanding and influence on foreign policy before irreversible decisions are made.
The perceived lack of expertise and seriousness of US negotiators like Jared Kushner and Steve Witoff during critical nuclear talks with Iran, leading to them being viewed as 'Israeli assets,' directly contributed to the failure of a potentially de-escalatory deal.
Appointing unqualified individuals to sensitive diplomatic roles, especially those with perceived conflicts of interest, can severely undermine national security interests and lead to missed opportunities for peace, potentially escalating conflicts.
Implement stricter requirements for diplomatic appointments, ensuring negotiators possess deep subject matter expertise and are free from perceived foreign influence, particularly in high-stakes negotiations like nuclear disarmament.
Key Concepts
Fight Them There, Not Here
This model describes the historical US foreign policy justification for military intervention abroad, arguing that engaging adversaries in their own regions prevents them from attacking the US homeland. The hosts critique this, noting that interventions often create new threats (e.g., ISIS) or bog down US forces, as seen in Iraq, without achieving stated goals.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate official narratives and media reports on international conflicts, seeking out 'pre-mortem' analysis that provides context and actionable information before events unfold.
- Question the expertise and motivations of diplomatic envoys, especially in high-stakes negotiations, and demand accountability for decisions that lead to conflict escalation.
- Recognize the long-term, destabilizing consequences of military interventions and nation-building efforts, as seen in Iraq, and advocate for foreign policies that prioritize diplomacy and de-escalation.
Notable Moments
The host describing how US/Israeli forces might be bombing elementary schools in Iran due to AI/intern errors misidentifying targets like 'Shahed' (a drone brand) or 'Police Park'.
This highlights the potential for catastrophic miscalculations and collateral damage in modern warfare, especially when relying on automated or inexperienced targeting processes, and underscores the human cost of such errors.
The discussion about a UK security advisor judging Iran's nuclear deal offer as 'surprising' and 'significant' but failing due to US negotiators' lack of expertise and perceived unseriousness.
This moment reveals a critical missed opportunity for de-escalation with Iran, suggesting that a diplomatic solution was achievable but sabotaged by internal US factors, potentially leading to the current conflict.
Quotes
"The most logical explanation here is that an intern or AI or a combination saw the word shahed and we're like oh haha we found one of their factories. let's bomb it. And instead they bomb an elementary school."
"We regarded Witoff and Kushner as Israeli assets that dragged the president into a war he wants to get out of."
"Senior Israeli officials have told US diplomats that Iranian protesters quote will get slaughtered if they take to the streets against their government even as Israel publicly calls for a popular uprising."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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