Matthew Hoh: Is Netanyahu Pushing the US Into War With Iran?
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump, not Netanyahu, holds the final decision on attacking Iran, though he is heavily influenced by external pressures and perceived self-interest.
- ❖The US military currently lacks the necessary assets (aircraft carriers, bombers, fighter squadrons, missile defense) in the Middle East for the scale of attack desired by the administration and Israel.
- ❖Past US military interventions (Red Sea, Ukraine, Iraq, Afghanistan) demonstrate a pattern of failing to achieve political objectives despite destructive capabilities.
- ❖Israel's strategic goal has evolved from regional deterrence to outright dominance of the Middle East, a mindset extending beyond the Netanyahu government.
- ❖Many Republican politicians support war with Iran based on a decades-old 'article of faith' rather than current political expediency or public opinion.
- ❖The idea of the Shah's son returning to power in Iran is a delusional fantasy, disconnected from the realities and desires of the Iranian people.
- ❖Long-term consequences of US foreign policy, like de-dollarization and declining trust in US investments, pose significant threats to the American economy.
- ❖Some US leadership factions view a fractured, chaotic Iran (akin to Syria 2015) as an acceptable outcome if direct regime change is not possible, believing it neutralizes opposition.
- ❖The military-industrial complex actively works to prolong conflicts like the war in Ukraine, influencing politicians to sabotage peace talks for financial gain.
- ❖The war in Ukraine is unwinnable for Ukraine and Russia cannot lose, yet European leaders continue to push for its continuation, ignoring domestic crises.
Insights
1Trump's Iran Decision and Military Readiness
While Benjamin Netanyahu exerts significant pressure, Donald Trump retains ultimate decision-making authority regarding an attack on Iran. However, Trump is currently delaying any major military action because the United States lacks the necessary military capabilities in the region for the desired scale and scope of attack. This includes needing a second aircraft carrier battle group, more B-52s, B1s, B2s, F-15/F-16 squadrons, and sufficient missile defense interceptors.
Matthew Hoh states, 'it will be Donald Trump's decision... Netanyahu can come into the Oval Office put type of put the pressure he wants on Trump... but still it's going to be Donald Trump making the decision.' He adds, 'the United States does not have the military capabilities in the region to carry out... the scale and the scope of the attack that the administration and the Israelis want to carry out.' He details the need for a second carrier, various bomber and fighter jets, and missile defense interceptors.
2Israel's Expanded Ambition for Regional Dominance
Israel's strategic worldview has expanded significantly beyond mere deterrence or maintaining occupied territories. There is now a prevalent mindset within the Israeli political, national security, and religious classes that aims for Israel's complete dominance of the Middle East, envisioning a 'Greater Israel' stretching 'from the Nile to the Euphrates'. This objective extends beyond the current Netanyahu government.
Hoh states, 'What I'm saying now is you have an Israeli mindset, an Israeli worldview that is well beyond that... its dominance of the Middle East by Israel. That is the objective.' He further clarifies, 'greater Israel is no longer just the occupied territories maybe southern Lebanon but greater Israel goes from the Nile to the Euphrates.'
3US Military's Ineffectiveness Despite Spending
Despite spending a trillion dollars annually on defense, the US military has demonstrated poor performance and limited capacity in recent years. Examples include being 'defeated in the Red Sea' by Ansar Allah (Houthis), American generals' performance against Russian generals in Ukraine, and running out of missiles during a 12-day war between Israel and Iran. The US cannot effectively threaten two countries simultaneously (e.g., Venezuela and Iran) due to resource constraints, indicating a 'vapidity' or 'shallowness' in its capabilities to achieve political objectives.
Hoh cites the US military's 'performed poorly... whether it's being defeated in the Red Sea... or the performance of American generals against Russian generals in Ukraine.' He notes, 'the United States cannot threaten both Venezuela and Iran at the same time... didn't have the capacity didn't have the the ships available.'
4The 'Syria 2015' Strategy for Iran
A segment of US leadership and influential think tanks (e.g., Foundation for the Defense of Democracy) may not necessarily aim for a smooth regime change in Iran with a puppet leader. Instead, if that's unachievable, their secondary objective is to destabilize Iran into a fractured, chaotic state resembling Syria in 2015. This outcome is considered 'just as good' because a nation embroiled in civil war would be too preoccupied to oppose US and Israeli interests in the region.
Hoh explains, 'if we can't get a puppet in charge of Tehran smoothly then the next big thing is to have nothing in charge of Iran and to have Iran resemble Syria 2015.' He adds, 'the idea of Iran that's fractured, completely chaotic in the midst of the civil war is much better than allowing the current government to stay in power.'
5Military-Industrial Complex Sabotaging Peace in Ukraine
The military-industrial complex actively works to prolong the war in Ukraine, with evidence suggesting that US senators, like Roger Wicker (Chairman of the Armed Services Committee), are influenced by the weapons industry to sabotage peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. This ensures continued lucrative contracts for defense companies, despite the devastating human cost and the war being unwinnable for Ukraine.
Hoh mentions a whistleblower from the OCE with allegations regarding Senator Roger Wicker's 'relationship to the weapons industry and his sabotaging if you will or his attempts or doing his best to sabotage peace talks between Ukraine and Russia for the purposes of the weapons industry.' He also recalls a 2011 meeting where weapons lobbyists were tasked with ensuring Congress supported staying in Afghanistan 'forever'.
Bottom Line
The 'Epstein file' is viewed by some as a potential foreign intelligence operation (possibly Mossad) designed to create blackmail material, raising questions about its potential use as leverage against powerful figures like Donald Trump.
This suggests a deep state or foreign intelligence capability to influence high-level political decisions through compromising information, potentially shaping foreign policy outcomes beyond public scrutiny.
Investigate the historical and contemporary use of 'kompromat' by intelligence agencies and its impact on international relations and political leadership.
The US military's inability to effectively threaten two countries simultaneously (e.g., Venezuela and Iran) despite a trillion-dollar annual budget reveals a significant overextension and inefficiency, rather than overwhelming power.
This challenges the perception of limitless US military might and suggests that current force projection is stretched thin, making it vulnerable to multi-front engagements or even sustained, lower-level conflicts.
Re-evaluate US defense spending and deployment strategies, focusing on efficiency, specific threats, and the ability to achieve political objectives rather than simply accumulating destructive capacity.
The widespread belief in the Iranian diaspora that the Shah's son could return to power is a 'delusional' fantasy, disconnected from the realities and desires of the Iranian people, who view him as more 'American than Iranian' and question his legitimacy.
This highlights a significant disconnect between exiled opposition movements and the populace they claim to represent, making any externally imposed 'regime change' highly likely to fail and be rejected by the local population, echoing past failures in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Policymakers should critically assess the legitimacy and popular support of exiled opposition figures when considering interventions or support for regime change, to avoid repeating historical mistakes.
Key Concepts
Military-Industrial-Congressional Complex
A concept, originally coined by Dwight D. Eisenhower, describing the symbiotic relationship between a nation's military, its defense industry, and its politicians, where each benefits from increased military spending and prolonged conflict, often at the expense of peace and public welfare. Matthew Hoh explicitly references Eisenhower's definition and applies it to the current situation in Ukraine.
Playing for Time
A strategic maneuver where a decision-maker delays an anticipated action, often to accumulate necessary resources, gather intelligence, or wait for more favorable conditions, even if the ultimate intention remains unchanged. Trump is described as 'playing for time' to build up military assets before a potential attack on Iran.
Regime Change by Chaos
A foreign policy strategy where, if direct installation of a puppet government is not feasible, the objective shifts to destabilizing a target nation into a state of prolonged civil war or chaos. This is seen as preferable to allowing the existing government to remain in power, as a fractured state is less capable of opposing external interests. Matthew Hoh suggests this is a motivating factor for some US leadership regarding Iran, aiming for an 'Iran resemble Syria 2015'.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate claims of US military readiness and strategic objectives, recognizing that public statements may not reflect actual capabilities or underlying political motivations.
- Understand that foreign policy decisions, especially regarding war, are often influenced by a complex interplay of domestic political pressures, lobbying from special interest groups (like the military-industrial complex), and the perceived self-interest of leaders.
- Recognize that 'regime change' strategies can extend beyond installing a puppet government to actively fostering chaos and instability, which some factions consider a desirable outcome to neutralize opposition.
- Be aware of the long-term economic consequences of geopolitical instability and military interventions, such as de-dollarization and declining foreign investment, which can severely impact national economies.
- Challenge narratives that simplify complex geopolitical conflicts, especially those that frame them as 'good versus evil,' and seek out diverse perspectives to understand the multifaceted interests at play.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the US military's poor performance in the Red Sea against the Houthis and in Ukraine against Russian generals, despite massive spending.
This directly challenges the perception of US military invincibility and highlights potential vulnerabilities and strategic miscalculations in recent conflicts.
The host, Nema, describes how ordinary Iranians are no longer afraid of a US attack, stating, 'So let them attack. What where do they want to hit? So let them hit. Then the day after what would happen? Nothing.'
This suggests a profound shift in Iranian public sentiment, indicating a desensitization to threats of war and potentially a lack of belief in the effectiveness or long-term impact of such attacks, which could embolden resistance.
Matthew Hoh recounts being mistakenly invited to a 2011 meeting where a US Special Representative explicitly instructed weapons company lobbyists to ensure Congress supported staying in Afghanistan 'forever' to secure campaign contributions.
This provides a concrete, firsthand anecdote illustrating the direct influence of the military-industrial complex on US foreign policy and the deliberate prolongation of wars for financial gain.
Quotes
"The United States does not have the military capabilities in the region to carry out I think the scale and the scope of the attack that the administration and the Israelis want to carry out."
"The question here is not about the Iranians. The question is not about the Palestinians. The question is about the Israelis and by extension the Americans, too."
"The idea of Iran that's fractured, completely chaotic in the midst of the civil war is much better than allowing the current government to stay in power."
"This is a war that Ukraine can't win and it's a war that Russia can't lose."
Q&A
Recent Questions
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