Prof. Ted Postol: It’s Over” – Israel Faces Total Collapse If This War Continues

Professor Postol asserts that Benjamin Netanyahu's objective is to destroy Iran as a functioning state, turning it into a 'failed state of fragments' similar to Syria. This strategy aims to eliminate states that could oppose Israeli military and expansionist objectives, making it easier for Israel to pursue its agenda.

It appears by every measure and action Netanyahu has made that his objective is to destroy Iran as a functioning state. He would like to turn it into a failed state, a state of fragments that would be fighting among themselves, much like what he accomplished with the help of the United States in Syria.

Israel critically mismanaged its air defense systems, particularly the Iron Dome. Interceptors were wasted against ballistic missile targets they had 'zero chance of hitting,' leading to a depletion of resources that could have been effective against drone attacks. This strategic blunder left Israel vulnerable to evolving threats.

This shows that the air defense operations were throwing away interceptors against targets that they had no possibility of hitting, zero chance of hitting, and instead you could have saved these interceptors for the drone attacks that are now occurring.

Iran, utilizing high-resolution satellite reconnaissance data from China and Russia, executed a 'tremendously effective attack' on US and Israeli ballistic missile defense radars. Within the first two days of the war, they destroyed critical THAAD radars and a giant radar in Qatar, which was essential for early detection and guidance, severely degrading the overall defense capability.

The Iranians very cleverly... used them to destroy these fantastically expensive and small numbers of ballistic missile defense radars that the Americans and Israelis had. In particular, there were four THAAD radars... and a giant radar in Qatar that was critical for the overall defense of Israel against ballistic missiles.

Iranian ballistic missiles, such as the Alphata, are designed with rocket motors that sustain speeds of Mach 10 or higher upon impact. This kinetic energy, combined with the missile's high explosive warhead, effectively doubles the explosive density, resulting in 'much more violent explosions' and 'tremendous damage' to highly reinforced buildings.

The rocket motor keeps the speed high. And so when it hits the ground, it hits the ground at Mach 10 or higher... you have twice the explosive density of what you would have from just TNT or just a kinetic impact. And this causes a much more violent explosion which causes much more damage at the at the aim point at the target point.

Low-flying drones with small radar cross-sections (comparable to a bird) are nearly impossible for airborne warning and control systems (AWACS) to detect. This is due to the Earth's curvature creating shadow regions and, more significantly, 'ground clutter' – interfering reflected signals from terrain, buildings, and weather – which hides the drone even when it's within radar line of sight.

You cannot see the drone in the clutter... the radar aircraft are not going to contribute to an air defense warning system against these drones... I just cannot see these low-flying very low radar cross-section targets.

The widespread availability of commercial Starlink terminals, which are small, inexpensive, and easily acquired, enables drones to perform real-time homing on targets. This creates a significant dilemma for defenders: they cannot selectively disable hostile drone communications via Starlink without also cutting off their own forces' critical communications that rely on the same system.

The availability of the Starlink system is now making it possible for Iran to use drones to do realtime homing on targets... I have no way of selectively turning off the drone signal... All I can do is turn off all the Starlink satellites that are functioning over let's say the air base. But if I do that then I turn off all the Starlink communications that the airbase is using.