Trump Readies Ground Invasion of Iran | Perry Bacon Jr. | TMR
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The US war in Iran faces unprecedented public opposition from its outset, unlike previous conflicts.
- ❖Donald Trump likely misjudged the Iran conflict, expecting a quick resolution similar to the Venezuela intervention.
- ❖Republican politicians prioritize loyalty to Trump to avoid primary losses, even on unpopular issues like war.
- ❖Democratic leadership, particularly Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, is perceived as secretly supporting the war, hindering a unified party opposition.
- ❖The 'peace-nick party' fear continues to influence Democratic leaders, preventing them from fully embracing anti-war positions.
- ❖Democratic primaries are increasingly battlegrounds between progressive and establishment candidates, with big money influencing outcomes.
- ❖There's a rhetorical shift where even moderate candidates adopt progressive language, making it harder for voters to discern true stances.
- ❖The age of politicians is becoming a significant factor for voters, who desire new faces and generational change in Congress.
Insights
1Public Opposition to Iran War is Historically High
Unlike previous conflicts, the American public showed clear opposition to the war in Iran from its very beginning. Polls indicated a majority opposed, with only about 25% in favor, a stark contrast to the initial public support for the Iraq War.
G. Elliott Morris's blog 'Strengthen Numbers' noted this as the first modern war with clear public opposition from the start. Fox News, CBS, and ABC polls confirmed majority opposition.
2Trump's Miscalculation on Iran Conflict
The guest suggests Donald Trump likely miscalculated the nature of the Iran conflict, assuming it would be a swift, decisive intervention like the Venezuela takeover, rather than a prolonged 'quagmire.' This misjudgment prevents him from easily declaring victory.
Trump likely assumed the Venezuela invasion happened quickly, expecting a similar outcome in Iran. The current situation is described as a 'slow-moving train crash' with no clear victory conditions.
3Republican Loyalty Driven by Primary Threats
Republican members of Congress maintain loyalty to Donald Trump not out of genuine agreement, but because the biggest threat to their political careers is losing a primary election. Breaking from Trump is seen as a greater risk than adhering to his agenda, even on unpopular issues.
Most Republican members are in heavily conservative districts, making primary challenges a greater concern than general election losses. Tom Delay's era saw concern for House majority, but now the focus is on primary survival.
4Democratic Leadership's Reluctance on War Funding
Despite public anti-war sentiment and the progressive wing of the party, Democratic leadership (e.g., Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries) is hesitant to explicitly oppose funding for the Iran war. This stems from a lingering fear of being labeled the 'peace-nick party,' a hangover from past political eras.
Schumer and Jeffries' comments were 'too vague' in the run-up to the war. The 'core test' for Democrats will be whether they refuse to fund the war when a money request comes to Congress, indicating their true stance.
5Rhetorical Shift in Democratic Primaries
The political rhetoric in Democratic primaries has shifted significantly. Even candidates backed by establishment money (like AIPAC or crypto interests) now adopt progressive stances on issues like Israel/Palestine or economic populism, reflecting where the party's base has moved.
A tweet suggesting 'Apac backed candidates coming out against Israel' highlights this shift. Candidates are 'lying about their record' in ads, claiming liberal positions to appeal to voters, even if their true affiliations are more moderate.
6Age as a Factor in Voter Preference
Voters, particularly those under 50, are increasingly seeking new and younger faces in politics, regardless of party affiliation. The perception of politicians staying 'too long' in office is a growing sentiment.
The 'age thing has landed' with voters, impacting figures like Biden. Examples include long-serving representatives like Rosa DeLauro (in office since 1988) and Mitch McConnell, prompting a desire for generational change.
Bottom Line
The 'process dance' of criticizing a war for lack of congressional authorization is ending as direct funding requests force politicians to take a definitive stance.
This shift means that politicians can no longer hide behind procedural objections; they must either fund the war or actively oppose it, making their positions unequivocally clear.
Progressive movements can leverage this moment to pressure Democratic senators, especially those in swing states, to vote against war funding, potentially shifting the party's stance and influencing future elections.
The challenge for progressive candidates is not just being on the 'right side' of issues, but effectively communicating that their moderate opponents are disingenuous about their adopted progressive rhetoric.
This makes primary elections more complex, requiring sophisticated messaging to expose the true allegiances of establishment-backed candidates who use populist language.
Progressive groups need to invest in robust opposition research and public education campaigns to highlight funding sources and voting records of moderate candidates, unmasking their 'liberal' facade.
Lessons
- Monitor how Democratic senators vote on war funding requests for Iran, as this will be a critical indicator of their true stance and willingness to defy leadership.
- Support progressive candidates in primaries who are genuinely aligned with anti-war and populist economic policies, rather than those who merely adopt progressive rhetoric.
- Pressure Democratic leadership to align with the party's anti-war base, emphasizing that the 'peace-nick party' fear is outdated and out of step with current public sentiment.
Notable Moments
Discussion of the historical context of public opinion on war, noting the unique opposition to the Iran conflict from its beginning.
This highlights a significant shift in American public sentiment regarding military interventions, suggesting a more skeptical and anti-war populace than in previous decades.
Analysis of how Republican politicians' loyalty to Trump is primarily driven by the fear of losing primary elections in heavily conservative districts.
This explains the seemingly irrational adherence to Trump's agenda, even when it is unpopular, revealing a core mechanism of modern Republican party politics.
The observation that even establishment-backed Democratic candidates are now adopting progressive rhetoric on issues like Israel/Palestine and economics.
This indicates a successful rhetorical shift by the progressive movement, forcing even moderate candidates to acknowledge and incorporate progressive language, though their actions may not always align.
Quotes
"Trump is like a cancer on our politics that seems like he's never going away."
"This is the first war I think in modern history where from the beginning, the American public was clearly opposed."
"We're still in this hangover where Democrats are afraid to be seen as voting against any kind of military action, any kind of war."
"We are one cycle away from Apac backed candidates coming out against Israel."
"The age thing has landed with people like Biden staying hang on too long. You know, people people are talking about it's like Democrat, Republican, independent. The age thing has landed."
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