Paul Craig Roberts: Iran EXPOSED Israel’s Air Defense - Iran’s Victory Would Have a Silver Lining
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Iran has significantly compromised Israel's air defense capabilities by destroying key radar installations.
- ❖Donald Trump's claims of ongoing negotiations and Iranian concessions are baseless and serve to undermine his credibility.
- ❖The US notion of 'retaking' the Strait of Hormuz is militarily unfeasible, as the US Navy avoids the area.
- ❖Modern warfare, as demonstrated in Ukraine, emphasizes drones and missiles, making traditional tank and artillery forces less effective.
- ❖Israel's army is characterized as effective only against unarmed populations, not against motivated forces like Hezbollah or Iran.
- ❖The war's economic impact, including rising energy and food prices, will create widespread public discontent in the US and Israel.
- ❖Paul Craig Roberts believes Iran must 'destroy Israel' or force a complete abandonment of the 'Greater Israel' agenda for its own survival.
- ❖The conflict is politically damaging for both Trump and Netanyahu, with potential electoral consequences and legal troubles.
Insights
1Iran's Strategic Destruction of Israeli Air Defenses
Iran's missile and drone strikes successfully targeted and destroyed Israel's most important radars, significantly reducing its defensive capabilities. This has led to increased casualties for Israel in conflicts with groups like Hezbollah.
The host states, 'Iran significantly reduced Israel's capabilities to defend itself in terms of radars. Basic the most important radars in Israel were hit by Iranian missiles and drones.'
2US Claims of Strait of Hormuz Control are Delusional
The US Treasury Secretary's assertion that the US will 'retake control' of the Strait of Hormuz is dismissed as nonsensical, as the US never had full control and currently lacks the confidence to position its navy near the strait.
Paul Craig Roberts states, 'The United States never had it... the secretary of the treasury thinks that the straight of hormones was something that we had... I don't think it means anything. We have seen that the United States hasn't sufficient confidence to put its navy anywhere close to the straight.'
3Shift in Warfare: Drones and Missiles Over Tanks
The nature of warfare has fundamentally changed, with tanks and artillery becoming 'outmoded' in favor of drones and missiles. This shift gives an advantage to groups like Hezbollah and Iran, who have effectively adopted these new technologies.
Paul Craig Roberts notes, 'There's been a big change in the nature of warfare as a result of the conflict in Ukraine. Tanks and artillery are outmoded. Now it's drones and missiles.' Eric Prince corroborates, mentioning FPVs used by Iranians against Israeli tanks.
4Israel's Military Weakness Against Motivated Forces
The Israeli army is characterized as ineffective against well-motivated, armed groups like Hezbollah, having failed in previous attempts to occupy southern Lebanon and suffering significant tank losses. Its primary function is seen as terrorizing unarmed populations.
Paul Craig Roberts asserts, 'The Israeli army is not really an army. It's good for terrorizing unarmed populations. That's its real function.' He cites Hezbollah destroying 25 Israeli tanks and driving them out of Lebanon twice.
5Iran's Strategic Alliance and Phased Escalation
Iran, along with Iraqi resistance, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, has executed a planned, phased escalation of the conflict, strategically joining forces and targeting key infrastructure like radars, indicating a coordinated long-term strategy.
The host states, 'Iraqi resistance since day one, they started fighting together with Iranians. As time went by, you see Hezbollah joining and just two days ago, we've learned... the Ansar Houthi in Yemen joining the war... I think it was all planned on the part of Iranians.'
6Political Repercussions for Trump and Netanyahu
The war is causing significant political damage to both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump's credibility is eroding due to false claims, and Netanyahu faces indictment and declining public support, with both potentially losing power by early next year.
Paul Craig Roberts states, 'I think the midterm elections are going to break Trump.' and 'Netanyahu is in trouble... his party is a minority party.'
7Global Economic Fallout from Prolonged Conflict
A prolonged war will lead to mass starvation, massive inflation, and a collapse of world living standards due to disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies. This will disproportionately affect underdeveloped countries that lost food self-sufficiency.
Paul Craig Roberts warns, 'If this becomes five or 10 years... there'll be mass starvation and massive inflation in prices from the lack of energy and world living standards everywhere will come down.'
Bottom Line
For Iran to survive, it must either militarily destroy Israel or force the Israeli people to reject the 'Greater Israel' Zionist agenda through 'extreme punishment.' Any negotiated settlement would be temporary and untrustworthy.
This suggests a zero-sum, existential conflict where only one side can 'win' definitively, implying that Iran's current military actions are not just defensive but aimed at a final, decisive outcome. It dismisses diplomatic solutions as naive.
For analysts, this frames the conflict not as a series of skirmishes but as a fundamental struggle for regional dominance and survival, requiring a re-evaluation of potential end-states beyond traditional peace treaties.
Israel's influence has 'destroyed the MAGA movement' and the opportunity for the United States to focus on domestic issues, by drawing the US into a costly and unpopular war with Iran.
This directly links US foreign policy in the Middle East to internal political failures and the decline of a specific political movement, suggesting that external commitments dictated by an ally can undermine a nation's domestic agenda and political stability.
Political strategists might analyze how foreign policy entanglements can directly impact domestic political movements and electoral outcomes, especially when perceived as serving external interests over national ones.
Key Concepts
The 'Killer Instinct' Doctrine
The idea that a nation (specifically Iran) must possess a 'killer instinct' to decisively eliminate existential threats (like Israel's 'Greater Israel' agenda) rather than seeking temporary agreements, which are deemed untrustworthy and merely delay future conflict. This implies a zero-sum approach to geopolitical survival.
Obsolescence of Traditional Warfare
The concept that modern conflicts, exemplified by the Ukraine war, have rendered traditional military assets like tanks and artillery largely obsolete. Instead, drones and missiles are the decisive weapons, fundamentally altering the balance of power and favoring forces capable of deploying these technologies effectively, even if they are 'militias'.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate traditional assumptions about military power and strategy in the Middle East, considering the observed effectiveness of drone and missile warfare against conventional forces.
- Monitor global energy and food supply chains closely for disruptions stemming from the Strait of Hormuz, as the conflict's economic impact is projected to be severe and widespread.
- Critically assess official statements from political leaders regarding ongoing conflicts, particularly when they contradict other sources or appear to serve a specific political narrative, as highlighted by discrepancies in US-Iran negotiations.
Quotes
"My own view is the only way it can be finally settled is for Iran to destroy Israel. Because as long as the Israelis have the agenda of greater Israel, the conflict cannot end."
"The Israeli army is not really an army. It's good for terrorizing unarmed populations. That's its real function."
"It's a desperate situation for Netanyahu and for Trump, not just militarily but politically. It's a desperate thing and it's amazing to me that they could make such an absolutely stupid reckless mistake."
"It seems that the whole plan would be building a new base in Israel to defend Israel. Because the way that the war is going is not going to, you know, as time goes by, Israel is going to be devastated. And it's not only Iran. You see, Iran, Hezbollah, and the combination of both forces are putting lot of pressure on Israel."
"Israel has destroyed the MAGA movement and the hope that the United States could get a little less crazy in all its domestic policies and operate more as a government looking after domestic concerns."
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