Interviews 02
Interviews 02
February 18, 2026

Scott Ritter: Hormuz Blocked! Iran’s Missile Fire Can Leave the US Navy DEFENSELESS

Quick Read

Scott Ritter argues that US diplomacy with Iran is a deliberate deception to buy time for a massive military buildup aimed at regime change, risking a devastating regional and potentially nuclear war.
US is deploying overwhelming military force, including advanced aircraft and thousands of Tomahawk missiles, under the guise of diplomacy.
Iran's perceived hesitation to issue decisive, preemptive threats against US regional assets is enabling the US war plan.
A US-Iran conflict risks regional devastation, global economic collapse, and a potential nuclear escalation, with Israel pushing for regime change.

Summary

Scott Ritter asserts that current US diplomatic efforts with Iran are a strategic ruse to facilitate a major military deployment, preparing for an aggressive regime change operation. He details a US plan involving overwhelming air strikes to suppress Iranian ballistic missiles, coupled with internal destabilization via Starlink terminals and orchestrated protests. Ritter criticizes Iran's passive diplomatic engagement, warning that its hesitation to issue decisive threats against US regional assets (like bases in Jordan or Saudi oil fields) will be perceived as weakness, enabling the US to proceed with a devastating, potentially nuclear, conflict. He emphasizes the US military's advanced planning for global conventional war and its willingness to escalate, even to nuclear levels, if faced with significant losses like an aircraft carrier. Ritter also highlights Israel's perceived desire for this conflict to eliminate its primary regional adversary, envisioning a post-war Middle East subservient to Israel and the US.
This analysis offers a stark, contrarian view of US-Iran relations, suggesting that diplomatic overtures are a smokescreen for imminent military action. It highlights the profound risks of miscalculation, regional destabilization, and nuclear escalation. For policymakers, military strategists, and global citizens, it underscores the importance of understanding potential hidden agendas in international diplomacy and the catastrophic consequences of an unconstrained military approach in a volatile region. The discussion also touches on the erosion of arms control and the potential for a global power shift if major players like China fail to deter US actions.

Takeaways

  • The US is using diplomacy with Iran as a "sucker punch" to buy time for a massive military buildup aimed at regime change.
  • The US military has deployed THAAD, Patriot, F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, and thousands of Tomahawk missiles to the region.
  • The US plan includes suppressing Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and triggering violent internal unrest using 80,000+ Starlink terminals.
  • Iran's perceived "hesitancy" to issue decisive, immediate threats against US regional assets (e.g., bases in Jordan, Saudi oil fields) is seen as a weakness by US planners.
  • Scott Ritter believes the US is prepared to escalate to nuclear options if an American aircraft carrier is sunk or conventional capabilities are exhausted.
  • Israel's objective is the elimination of the Islamic Republic, believing it will lead to regional subservience to Israel and the US.
  • China could deter a US attack on Iran by explicitly linking it to an immediate move on Taiwan, but is currently not doing so.

Insights

1US Diplomacy as a Pretext for War

Scott Ritter asserts that US negotiations with Iran are a deliberate distraction, buying two weeks for the US to deploy missile defense (THAAD, Patriot) and strike capacity (F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, F-22s). The ultimate goal, he claims, is regime change, not a diplomatic outcome.

This is just two weeks for the United States to get all the means. The first thing we did was deploy the missiles the the missile defense THAAD Patriot and now we're deploying the strike capacity. And when we get to green on both defense, missile defense and strike capacity, the president will pull the trigger because we have no interest in a diplomatic outcome with Iran. Our goal, our objective has always been regime change.

2Multi-pronged US Strategy for Regime Change

The US plan involves a massive air campaign to suppress Iranian ballistic missile capabilities, combined with internal destabilization efforts. The air campaign would involve advanced fighter jets to "blanket the skies of Iran 24/7 for a week nonstop day and night air campaign" to hit missile operations. Simultaneously, the US has infiltrated over 100,000 Starlink terminals into Iran, outfitted with Israeli software, to generate violent civilian unrest and mobilize anti-regime cells, aiming to "bomb Iran, trigger massive protests, violent protests, suppress the regime, and carry out regime change to include killing the supreme leader."

We now know that we if we're going to fight Iran, the requirement is that we have to suppress Iran's ballistic missile launch capacity early on. That and in order to do that, you need just the kind of aircraft mix that we've got coming in. F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, F-22s. the United States, the CIA, and others have infiltrated over 100,000 Starlink terminals into Iran. The Americans are planning to bomb Iran, trigger massive protests, violent protests, suppress the regime, and carry out regime change to include killing the supreme leader, trying to kill the presidency, killing the leadership.

3Iran's Perceived Hesitancy as a Fatal Flaw

Ritter criticizes Iran's diplomatic approach and past responses, arguing that its lack of decisive, preemptive threats is enabling the US war plan. Iran's engagement in "diplomatic games" and its historical "hedged" responses are interpreted by US planners as hesitancy. Ritter argues Iran should issue immediate, existential threats to regional US allies (e.g., Jordan, Saudi Arabia) stating that their infrastructure would be "eliminated on day one" if they facilitate US aggression. This would force allies to reconsider hosting US forces.

Iran is is setting itself up for failure here. They're negotiating with a man who is deliberately plotting against them, which means he isn't negotiating in good faith. Iran hasn't been decisive in the past. Even in their response against Israel, it wasn't decisive. It was it was hedged. The only way Iran deters an attack is to state right up front what the cost of this war will be instantaneously.

4US Military Preparedness and Escalation Risk

The US military is fully capable of waging a large-scale conventional war and is prepared for nuclear escalation if critical assets are threatened. Ritter emphasizes the US is a "mature military power" that plans for global conventional war, including sustained operations with at-sea replenishment of munitions like Tomahawk missiles (potentially 2-3 reloads for 800-1000 missiles). He highlights that military planners are confident in having "solutions" for Iranian air defenses (S-300, S-400). Critically, he warns that if Iran sinks a US aircraft carrier or exhausts US conventional capabilities, the US would likely resort to nuclear weapons as a "warning" or to avoid failure.

Our military will not pull the trigger on an Iranian strike unless they are confident that they have an adequate response to anything the Iranians can do. We have a solution for the S400. We have a solution for the S300. if you're looking at 800 to a,000 tomahawks um you've got to understand that we can probably replenish at least two times over. If Iran sinks it, I believe the consequences would be nuclear.

5Israel's Vision for a Post-War Middle East

Israel views the elimination of the Islamic Republic as the key to regional dominance. From Israel's perspective, destroying the Islamic Republic, which is the only nation that has consistently stood up to Israel and the US, would eliminate the "axis of resistance." This would pave the way for all Gulf Arab countries to become "compliant servant states" under a "greater Israel" and the US, fulfilling the vision of the Abraham Accords as a "vehicle of colonial empowerment."

The vision here is that we are able to to end the Islamic Republic with minimal damage... the maximum effect we get is the elimination of the Islamic Republic, which from the Israeli perspective opens the door for everything. The Abrams Accords will become reality. Israel will be anointed as the economic lord of the region. All Arab nations will now be, you know, subservient to to Israel.

Bottom Line

The US believes a decapitation strike will collapse the Iranian government, but Ritter argues the Islamic Republic's constitutional structure and the Assembly of Experts ensure a rapid succession, demonstrating US "ignorance" of Iran's resilience.

So What?

US strategy is fundamentally flawed by underestimating Iran's internal stability and institutional mechanisms for leadership transition, potentially leading to a prolonged and devastating conflict without achieving its primary objective.

Impact

Iran could leverage its constitutional resilience to demonstrate continuity and undermine US regime change objectives, if it acts decisively in its deterrence strategy.

China has significant leverage to deter a US attack on Iran by explicitly linking it to an immediate, decisive move on Taiwan.

So What?

The US cannot fight two major wars simultaneously. China's inaction allows the US to focus on Iran, potentially emboldening it to then challenge China on Taiwan after a perceived victory.

Impact

China could issue a clear warning that a US attack on Iran would mean "all bets are off on Taiwan," forcing the US to reconsider its priorities and potentially preventing the war.

US military decisions to launch major conflicts are based on a "green light" system where specific conditions (e.g., missile defense, strike capacity, suppression of enemy forces) must be met, often overriding detailed battle damage assessments.

So What?

This suggests a mechanistic approach to war initiation, where quantitative metrics can supersede qualitative analysis, potentially leading to premature or ill-advised engagements based on predefined triggers.

Impact

Understanding this "green light" mechanism could allow adversaries to disrupt the conditions necessary for the US to reach its "go" state, or to anticipate the timing of an attack based on observed deployments.

Lessons

  • Recognize that diplomatic negotiations can be a strategic deception used to mask military preparations, requiring vigilance from all parties.
  • Understand that perceived "hesitancy" or lack of decisive, preemptive threats from an adversary can be interpreted as weakness, potentially inviting aggression.
  • Consider the broader geopolitical implications of regional conflicts, as they can trigger global economic instability, challenge international treaties (like the NPT), and shift global power dynamics.

Quotes

"

"The Americans are planning to bomb Iran, trigger massive protests, violent protests, suppress the regime, and carry out regime change to include killing the supreme leader, trying to kill the presidency, killing the leadership."

Scott Ritter
"

"The only way Iran deters an attack is to state right up front what the cost of this war will be instantaneously."

Scott Ritter
"

"If Iran sinks it, I believe the consequences would be nuclear."

Scott Ritter
"

"We are governed by madmen, insane people who have no sense of moral obligation to the legacy of arms control."

Scott Ritter

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