Iran Will Decide When This Ends | Juan Cole | TMR
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The media landscape is increasingly opaque, with corporate control, algorithmic suppression, and deliberate information delays (e.g., satellite imagery, Israeli military censorship) obscuring events in the Middle East.
- ❖Iran's regime, born from a mass revolution, is more stable and mobilized than perceived, making external attempts at 'Balkanization' ineffective and counterproductive.
- ❖Iran's core strategy involves inflicting economic pain by disrupting oil and gas commerce from the Persian Gulf, threatening a global recession.
- ❖GCC countries are furious with Israel for dragging them into conflict with Iran, leading to potential long-term economic damage and a diversification of their security arrangements away from the US.
- ❖Israel's actions, particularly under Netanyahu, have inadvertently strengthened the Iranian regime and are pushing the entire Middle East towards nuclear proliferation.
- ❖China is accelerating its energy diversification (e.g., electric vehicles) in response to potential oil shocks, potentially reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gaining geopolitical advantage.
Insights
1Media Landscape Obscures Middle East Reality
The current media environment, characterized by corporate consolidation, algorithmic suppression, and deliberate information control, makes it significantly harder to understand events on the ground in the Middle East. This is exacerbated by specific actions like satellite imagery delays and Israeli military censorship.
Professor Cole notes the shift from eight corporations controlling media to potentially one, algorithms suppressing news, and Planet's 14-day delay in satellite imagery from the Middle East. He also highlights Israel's heavy military censorship, where newspapers sometimes appear with blanks, preventing information about Iranian strike efficacy from reaching the public.
2Iran's Revolutionary Stability Defies External Destabilization Attempts
Iran's government, established after a mass revolution in 1978-79, possesses deep internal stability and the ability to mobilize its population, making external attempts to 'Balkanize' or destabilize it along ethnic lines largely ineffective and potentially counterproductive.
Cole explains that Iran's revolution led to a parliament with national representation, widespread education, and a mobilized population. Despite internal discontent, the regime has hardcore supporters and popular militias. He dismisses Israeli hopes of ethnic fragmentation, noting 90% of the country is Shiite, and appealing to small Sunni ethnicities would only cause minor turbulence and bring in regional allies for Iran.
3Iran's Economic Warfare Strategy Targets Global Energy
Iran's primary strategy to counter US and Israeli aggression involves disrupting global oil and gas commerce from the Persian Gulf, aiming to inflict severe economic pain on the world and force a reset of its security standing.
Cole states Iran is 'bombing the be Jesus out of' US and Israeli interests, but also 'interfering with the commerce in petroleum and gas that comes out of the Persian Gulf, which could throw the whole world into a deep recession.' He notes that 20% of the world's oil and LNG comes from the Gulf, and its effective cutoff forces countries like Qatar to stop exporting, impacting a single global market.
4GCC Countries Alienated by Israeli Actions, Seek New Security
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, despite historical alignments, are furious with Israel for dragging them into conflict with Iran and are likely to diversify their security arrangements, potentially away from the United States, in response to their increased vulnerability.
Cole states that Iran has hit US bases, radar, communications technology, hotels, airports, and oil facilities in GCC countries. He emphasizes that the Saudis and Qataris are 'furious' and 'livid with Israel for dragging them into this,' and will 'put enormous pressure on everybody to cut this out and to make a deal with Iran.' He suggests they may diversify security arrangements, citing Djibouti's example of hosting Chinese, British, and American bases.
5Netanyahu's Miscalculation Drives Regional Nuclearization
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's perceived 'victories' against other regional adversaries led him to misjudge Iran, pushing the entire Middle East towards nuclearization as countries seek deterrence against perceived threats and unreliable protection.
Cole argues Netanyahu, 'the victim of his own success,' thought he could treat Iran like other neighbors he had 'whipped into shape.' He states Netanyahu 'doesn't understand Iran' and that his actions are 'to push the entire region towards nuclearization.' He cites Saudi Arabia's increased calls to nuclear-armed Pakistan for protection after Israeli actions.
Bottom Line
The current conflict accelerates China's transition to electric vehicles and energy independence, potentially reducing its reliance on Middle Eastern oil and strengthening its global economic position.
A major global power like China becoming less dependent on oil from the Gulf could significantly alter global energy markets and geopolitical leverage, diminishing the strategic importance of the Middle East for some nations.
This shift creates opportunities for countries and companies investing in EV technology and renewable energy infrastructure, as global demand for these alternatives will likely increase in response to energy market volatility.
GCC countries, feeling exposed and betrayed by US-Israeli policies, are likely to diversify their security alliances, potentially inviting powers like China and Russia to establish a greater military presence in the Gulf.
This diversification would challenge the long-standing US security hegemony in the Middle East, leading to a more multipolar regional security architecture and increased competition among global powers for influence.
Nations capable of offering alternative security arrangements or economic partnerships could gain significant influence and access to the vast wealth of GCC countries, potentially at the expense of traditional Western allies.
Key Concepts
Japan Option
A strategy for nuclear deterrence where a country possesses the technological capability and materials (e.g., plutonium) to quickly assemble a nuclear weapon, without actually building one. The knowledge of this latent capability serves as a deterrent against potential aggressors, as the response could be rapid nuclear armament.
Lessons
- Recognize that the global energy market is interconnected; disruptions in the Persian Gulf will inevitably impact energy prices worldwide, regardless of a country's domestic production.
- Understand that Iran's current actions are a strategic attempt to reset its security position, not a short-term skirmish, and will persist until its demands for non-aggression are met.
- Be aware of the significant information control and censorship in conflict zones, which can distort public perception and understanding of geopolitical events.
Quotes
"Iran is not going to put up with it's not Gaza. The Israelis have this cynical phrase they talk about mowing the grass. They used to bomb Gaza every once in a while. Uh well, Iran is not going to put up with that."
"You mess with us and and you can't drive your car. You mess with us and you can't get in your car and go shopping for groceries. You can't go in your get in your car and go visit your aunt. You mess with us and and your way of life is over. uh they want that message to get through."
"The outcome of what Netanyahu has done is to push the entire region towards nuclearization."
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