Bulwark Takes
Bulwark Takes
June 21, 2026

Netanyahu Bet Everything on Trump—And Lost (w/ Andrew Fox) | Mona Charen Show

YouTube · HC0YMeVfB-Q

Quick Read

Andrew Fox and Mona Charen dissect the geopolitical missteps of Netanyahu's reliance on Trump, the ineffectiveness of the recent Iran deal, and the distorted global narrative surrounding Israel's actions in Gaza.
Netanyahu's exclusive reliance on Trump proved a catastrophic strategic error, isolating Israel from US Democrats.
The US military campaign against Iran was ineffective, leaving the 'all options on the table' threat empty.
Accusations of genocide and famine in Gaza are refuted by data and Hamas's deliberate human shield tactics.

Summary

This episode features Andrew Fox, a fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and lecturer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, discussing the recent Iran deal, US military strategy, and the conflict in Gaza with host Mona Charen. Fox critiques Netanyahu's strategic error in aligning solely with Trump and the perceived failure of the US military campaign against Iran. He provides an in-depth refutation of 'genocide' and 'famine' accusations against Israel in Gaza, detailing Hamas's extensive human shield strategy and Israel's communication failures. The conversation also touches on the complexities of a two-state solution and the broader implications of Israel's declining international reputation.
This discussion offers a critical perspective on current Middle Eastern geopolitics, highlighting the strategic blunders of key leaders and the challenges of international perception. Understanding the detailed arguments against accusations of genocide and famine, alongside the operational realities of Hamas's tactics, is crucial for a nuanced view of the conflict. The episode underscores the importance of strategic communication and the long-term consequences of diplomatic isolation for any nation.

Takeaways

  • Netanyahu's strategy of cutting off US Democrats and placing all reliance on Trump has severely backfired, leading to Israel's diplomatic isolation.
  • The recent Iran deal, framed as a US climb-down, provides Iran with revenue and time to prolong negotiations, knowing Trump's political clock is ticking.
  • The US military's '12-day war' against Iran, while degrading some missile stocks, ultimately proved ineffective in removing the regime, rendering future 'all options on the table' threats hollow.
  • Hamas intentionally created maximum civilian casualties in Gaza to undermine Israel's world opinion, using an extensive network of tunnels and IEDs within civilian infrastructure.
  • Claims of genocide in Gaza are dismissed as 'nonsense,' citing IDF legal oversight on strikes, a relatively low civilian death toll (less than 3% of population), and Israel's humanitarian efforts like polio vaccinations.
  • Accusations of mass famine in Gaza are refuted by UN figures showing over 3,000 calories per person per day were supplied, with Hamas actively hoarding and selling aid.
  • Israel's failure to effectively explain its military actions and Hamas's human shield tactics has resulted in significant damage to its international reputation.
  • A two-state solution remains elusive due to Palestinian leadership's 'Palestinianism' (desire to replace Israel) and incentives for violence, creating an 'escalation trap'.

Insights

1Netanyahu's Strategic Miscalculation with Trump

Netanyahu made a significant error by alienating US Democrats and placing all of Israel's diplomatic eggs in the Trump basket. This strategy has backfired, leaving Israel vulnerable to international isolation as Trump's support wanes and global opinion shifts.

The guest states, 'He cut off the Democrats in America. You know, he focused everything all his eggs were in the Trump basket. Um and that is horribly backfired this week as we've seen.'

2Ineffectiveness of US Military Action Against Iran

The US military campaign against Iran, despite deploying significant air and naval power, failed to remove the regime or achieve its objectives. This has rendered the 'all options are on the table' threat empty, as Iran weathered the attacks and maintained power, demonstrating the limits of military force without a coherent strategy or ground component.

The host notes, 'Trump has now pulled the trigger. He has done the military action... And they weathered it. They just They just took the punch and they held onto power. And now that threat, it seems to me, is completely empty.' The guest agrees, 'how do we how do we look for any kind of a bright spot in that dark cloud? And I think the way we look at it is that actually the 12-day war was incredibly effective. You know, it didn't it didn't remove the regime, but it did degrade their missile stocks.'

3Hamas's Deliberate Human Shield Strategy in Gaza

Hamas systematically transformed Gaza's civilian areas into a vast fighting network, constructing 400 miles of tunnels, 5,700 tunnel shafts within buildings, and placing IEDs every 50 yards. This strategy aimed to maximize civilian casualties, which Hamas then exploited for propaganda to undermine Israel's global standing. Civilians were actively prevented from evacuating by Hamas at gunpoint or through counter-messaging.

The guest details, 'every house had had some sort of connection to this fighting network and they turned the city into a fighting environment... there was an IED almost every... 50 yards or so.' He also mentions 'aerial footage of Hamas gunmen... forcing people back' and Hamas Telegram channels telling people 'not to listen to the Jews. Stay where you are... It's a trick.'

4Refutation of 'Genocide' and 'Famine' Accusations in Gaza

The claims of genocide and famine in Gaza are strongly refuted. Israel's military operations were subject to legal oversight, with up to 50% of strikes canceled due to civilian protection concerns. The death toll (less than 3% of the population over two and a half years) is inconsistent with genocidal intent, and Israel conducted humanitarian efforts like polio vaccinations for 600,000 babies. Regarding famine, UN figures show over 3,000 calories per person per day were supplied, but Hamas hoarded and sold aid, causing localized hunger.

The guest states, 'as many as 50% of strikes in Gaza were actually canceled because, you know, the civilian protection measures weren't there.' He adds, 'less than 3% of the population in two and a half years... is not a genocide.' On famine, 'More than 3,000 calories per person per day on average went into Gaza during the war.' and 'Hamas was seizing nine in every 10 trucks and hoarding the aid and then selling it.'

5Israel's Critical Failure in Strategic Communication

Despite extensive efforts to mitigate civilian harm and the operational realities of fighting Hamas's human shield strategy, Israel failed to effectively communicate these facts to the world. This communication vacuum allowed Hamas's propaganda to dominate the information landscape, leading to a widespread negative view of Israel and increased diplomatic pressure.

The guest notes, 'one of the IDF's huge failings is the failure to explain that properly... you are going to get crucified on the world stage because you you're simply not explaining what you're doing to people.' He also mentions 'soldiers taking their mobile phones in, messing around in Gazans' houses... just a huge strategic own goal.'

Bottom Line

The US's depletion of missile interceptor stocks during the Iran conflict, coupled with China's near-monopoly on rare earth minerals, creates a significant geopolitical leverage point for China to expand its influence in the Gulf.

So What?

This could lead to a shift in regional alliances and military procurement, as Gulf states may turn to China for defense capabilities if the US cannot replenish its stocks or guarantee supply.

Impact

For US defense industries, this highlights an urgent need to invest in domestic rare earth mineral processing and alternative material research to reduce reliance on China and maintain strategic autonomy.

The population of Gaza is currently larger than it was before the start of the war, with births exceeding deaths, according to UN, Save the Children, and even Hamas figures.

So What?

This fact directly contradicts the 'genocide' narrative and, if effectively communicated, could significantly alter global perceptions of the conflict and Israel's actions.

Impact

Israel and its allies have an opportunity to leverage this data in public diplomacy and international legal forums to counter misinformation and present a more accurate picture of the demographic realities in Gaza.

Key Concepts

Clausewitz's Theory of War

War is an extension of politics by other means. Military action without a clear political goal and a credible pathway to achieve it is destined to fail, regardless of military prowess. This applies to the US campaign against Iran and Israel's actions in Gaza.

Human Shield Strategy

A tactic where a military force deliberately operates within civilian areas, using the civilian population and infrastructure to deter enemy attacks, thereby shifting blame for civilian casualties onto the attacking force. Hamas's extensive use of this strategy in Gaza is detailed.

Lessons

  • Critically evaluate geopolitical alliances, avoiding over-reliance on a single political figure or party, as demonstrated by Netanyahu's miscalculation.
  • Recognize that military force, especially without a clear political strategy and ground component, may not achieve desired outcomes against entrenched regimes, as seen in the US campaign against Iran.
  • Prioritize strategic communication in conflict zones to counter misinformation and ensure a nuanced understanding of operational realities, preventing 'strategic own goals' from poor public relations.

Quotes

"

"He cut off the Democrats in America. You know, he focused everything all his eggs were in the Trump basket. Um and that is horribly backfired this week as we've seen."

Andrew Fox
"

"Trump has now pulled the trigger. He has done the military action... And they weathered it. They just They just took the punch and they held onto power. And now that threat, it seems to me, is completely empty."

Mona Charen
"

"War is an extension of politics with the admixture of other means. So, if you don't have the political goal to walk to work towards and a credible pathway to get there, it doesn't matter how many drones, anti-drones, or aircraft you have. It's still not going to work."

Andrew Fox
"

"You're trying to tell me that one of the world's more advanced armies went into the Gaza with the intention of killing everyone out of 2.3 million... They only managed to kill 70 plus thousand in two in in two and a half years... is not a genocide."

Andrew Fox
"

"Hamas was seizing nine in every 10 trucks and hoarding the aid and then selling it to generate revenue to keep themselves in the fight."

Andrew Fox
"

"The damage that has done is appalling. And if Israel loses um in the ICJ for failing to um failing to take action against genocide chants, then then I think that's probably not unfair, quite frankly, because some of their politicians have said monstrous things that are utterly unforgivable."

Andrew Fox
"

"The population of Gaza today is larger than it was before the start of the war. There have been more births in Gaza than people killed during the war."

Andrew Fox

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