Pepe Escobar: Iran’s Silent Strategy: How It’s Ending US Dominance in West Asia
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Strait of Hormuz is central to a new global order emerging as the old one dies.
- ❖BlackRock CEO Larry Fink's prediction of $150/barrel oil and global recession is tied directly to Strait of Hormuz stability.
- ❖Iran's military defenses, especially around islands like Larak and Qeshm, make any US ground invasion 'suicidal.'
- ❖The UAE is considered a hostile party by Iran, risking severe retaliation that could devastate its economy.
- ❖US negotiation attempts are seen as disingenuous, with Iran's demands for war compensation incompatible with US positions.
- ❖The US leadership is described as intellectually incapable and easily manipulated, hindering effective diplomacy.
- ❖The Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis) is restructuring and gaining significant power, challenging US and Israeli regional influence.
- ❖Iraq has de facto expelled US and NATO forces, with Iraqi militias gaining political power.
- ❖The speakers suggest a historical parallel between the 1956 Suez Crisis ending the British Empire and a potential 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis ending the American Empire.
Insights
1The Strait of Hormuz as the Geopolitical Nexus
The Strait of Hormuz is presented as the absolute center of the emerging new world order, with its control determining global economic stability. 20% of global oil transits through the Strait. Larry Fink of BlackRock (managing $14 trillion) identified two outcomes for the Strait's future operation: oil at $40 or $150 a barrel, with the latter leading to a global recession. The speakers assert the world is rapidly moving towards the $150 scenario.
At the center of this new order being born, the straight of Hormuz. It's not by accident that a guy who manages $14 trillion... Larry Frink from Back Rock... said... we're gonna have oil at $40 dollars a barrel or we're gonna have oil at $150 a barrel. And if that happens... it's going to be a global recession.
2Iran's Impregnable Defense Strategy
Any US ground invasion of Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz, such as Larak or Qeshm, is depicted as a 'suicidal mission' due to Iran's overwhelming military strength and strategic fortifications. Iran possesses over a million ground soldiers, highly equipped and experienced from the Iran-Iraq war. Islands like Larak are heavily protected with IRGC Navy presence and missile batteries. Qeshm, being larger than Okinawa, would require immense casualties and time, far beyond US capabilities.
A lot of rumors about [US landing in Sistan Baluchistan]... you can consider this absurd... it's an absolute suicidal mission... Larak is extremely well protected and the US uh and the IRGC navy is there is heavily fortified heavily protected with batteries of missiles everywhere... Kashm is much much bigger... it took the Americans... at least 12,000 soldiers to take Okinawa. It took them three months... multiply that and with the size of Kashm and you see that it's out of the question. They have right now more than 1 million soldiers ready to fight... the ground forces of Iran are somehow unbelievable. They're so equipped. They're so ready.
3UAE's Hostile Stance and Risk of Retaliation
The UAE is identified by Tehran's strategic analysts as an active participant on the US-Israel side, making it a legitimate target for Iranian counter-punches. Iran views the UAE's actions, both before and during the conflict, as complicit. If the UAE is certified as aiding any US military attempt, Iran could easily 'turn his bling bling money laundering machine into a parking lot.' Qatar and Oman, however, are recognized as neutral.
The role of the UAE... they are already part of the wars side by side with the US and Israel. So there will be a counter punch... Iran could turn his bling bling money laundering machine into a parking lot easily... the Dubai model as we know it is already dead. Oman and Qatar are neutral from now on and Iran recognizes that. But the other GC GCC's, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE, it's a completely different story.
4US Diplomatic Incapacity and Leadership Deficiencies
The US is characterized as 'non-agreement capable,' with its leadership, particularly Donald Trump, described as intellectually unprepared, easily manipulated, and operating on selective, self-serving information. Past negotiation attempts with Iran failed due to US inability to understand proposals or negotiate in good faith. Trump is portrayed as a '2-year-old,' megalomaniac, and narcissist, fed only 'two-three minute videos' of successes, making him blind to critical analysis and reality. This prevents any meaningful diplomatic resolution.
The United States is non uh agreement capable... and non diplomacy capable... It's the bombing regime by definition... he doesn't read he he's incapable of contextualizing he cannot see nuance he be he behaves like a two year not four year old like a twoyear-old... it's very very easy to manipulate him.
5Resilience and Growth of the Axis of Resistance
Despite assassinations and external pressure, the Axis of Resistance (Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Houthis) is shown to be restructuring, developing, and gaining strength, effectively pushing out US influence and preparing for broader conflict. Hezbollah has successfully restructured its military command, with younger, highly competent leaders inflicting significant damage. Iraqi militias (Hashd al-Shaabi) have de facto expelled US and NATO forces from Iraq and are gaining political power. Yemen's Houthis are capable, cultured, and possess their own military complex, ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and disrupt Saudi exports.
Hezbollah is restructuring... This year we already seeing the results... They are killing meas like now it's a sport... In Iran we are witnessing the same process... they are keeping it up... a new Hezbollah in Iraq which is so powerful... Yemen has not joined so far... they will close the Bab Elmande and they will inflict serious trouble to Saudi exports via the Red Sea. Hash Dal Shabi years ago in Baghdad... they are perfectly capable... they expelled the Americans already. The Americans and NATO are for all practical purposes out of Iraq.
Bottom Line
The current US administration's internal information flow is severely compromised, with the President receiving only short, curated 'success' videos, leading to a profound disconnect from reality.
This suggests that critical intelligence and nuanced analysis from agencies like the CIA and Pentagon are not reaching the highest decision-maker, making US foreign policy decisions dangerously uninformed and prone to manipulation by external actors.
For adversaries, understanding this vulnerability allows for targeted information campaigns or exploiting the leader's cognitive biases to provoke desired reactions or miscalculations.
The 'Green Zone' in Baghdad, once a symbol of US control, is now functionally dead, controlled by Iraqi administration and militias, signifying a complete loss of US influence on the ground.
This shift indicates a profound and irreversible change in Iraq's sovereignty and alignment, with the US having lost its operational base and political leverage, despite still controlling Iraq's oil export money via the Federal Reserve.
For regional powers, this creates an opportunity to solidify alliances and economic ties with a newly independent Iraq, free from direct US military presence, potentially integrating it deeper into regional economic and security blocs.
The potential reabsorption of Kuwait into Iraq, not through invasion but a 'grassroots movement,' is presented as a 'historical poetic justice.'
This radical prediction, if it were to materialize, would fundamentally redraw the map of the Persian Gulf, challenging the post-colonial borders and potentially leading to a massive redistribution of oil wealth and geopolitical power in the region.
For regional actors seeking to challenge Western-imposed boundaries, this idea serves as a conceptual framework for future territorial realignments based on historical claims and popular movements, rather than traditional military conquest.
Lessons
- Monitor oil price movements and bond market yields (specifically US 10-year Treasury bonds) as key indicators of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential global recession.
- Analyze the strategic positioning and statements of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, to discern their alignment in the evolving West Asian conflict.
- Study the organizational structures and capabilities of non-state actors like Hezbollah, Iraqi militias (Hashd al-Shaabi), and Yemen's Houthis, as they are increasingly central to regional power dynamics and military outcomes.
Quotes
"He's not busy being born, he's busy dying. And I adapted to the new order, the old order to quote Grumshi. Not yet dead, but in fact is dying fast. And the new one which not being born yet, but is actually busy being born as we speak."
"We're gonna have oil at $40 dollars a barrel or we're gonna have oil at $150 a barrel. And if that happens... it's going to be a global recession."
"If the UAE if there is this attempt of let's say the beach head not a ground invasion and it's certified that UAE is part of it MBZ better be ready because Iran could turn his bling bling money laundering machine into a parking lot easily."
"The United States is non uh agreement capable and much more than that nonnegotiation capable and non diplomacy capable. And this uh we can call it uh regime in the US at the moment has proven that over and over again. It's the bombing regime by definition."
"This is a swamp for Donald. This is a trap. The more he struggles, Pepe, the deeper he sink in my opinion, if he goes with the ground ground invasion of Iran."
"It's an intellectual war. It's a war of intellect against uh supreme stupidity."
"1956 Swiss crisis was the facto ending of the British Empire and we have 2026 straight of Hormuz, the beginning of the end of the American Empire."
Q&A
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