Alastair Crooke: Systemic Collapse Explained: Why Two Fronts Matter
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Two phases of US-Israeli covert operations against Iran failed, the first involving internal drone attacks, the second using trained rioters for destabilization.
- ❖Iran countered covert attacks by cutting internet and Starlink access, preventing external coordination of internal cells.
- ❖The Iranian state remained intact, with no significant defections from political or military elites, surprising Israeli intelligence.
- ❖Trump's foreign policy decisions are heavily influenced by his low approval ratings and the extreme fragility of the bond market, making military risks less palatable.
- ❖The US desire to 'buy' Greenland is framed as a real estate deal for a 'big win' rather than a strategic necessity.
- ❖Europe's reliance on US LNG makes it highly dependent, limiting its ability to resist US pressure, exemplified by the Greenland situation.
- ❖Trump's 'Board of Peace' is characterized as a transactional, business-oriented arbitration body, contrasting with Russia's demand for formal, legally binding treaties.
- ❖The 'rules-based international order' is openly acknowledged as over, with European leaders privately aware but publicly maintaining the facade.
Insights
1Iran's Resilience Against Hybrid Warfare Operations
Alastair Crooke details two distinct, failed US-Israeli covert operations against Iran. The first involved small internal units using attack drones and anti-tank missiles to target localized radar systems. The second, more recent phase, saw the insertion of trained rioters (including Kurds and MEK operatives from camps in Albania and Iraqi Kurdistan) who employed 'management of savagery' tactics (akin to ISIS) to create extreme violence and disruption, aiming for state collapse and balkanization. Iran effectively countered these by rapidly cutting off international internet access and severing Starlink connections, which were crucial for directing the internal cells. The lack of defections from Iranian political or military elites ensured the state remained intact, surprising foreign intelligence assessments.
Guest Alastair Crooke's detailed account of covert unit insertions, drone usage, anti-tank missiles, trained rioters (Kurds, MEK) using 'management of savagery' playbook, Iranian internet cut-offs, and the severing of 40,000 Starlink terminals. Israeli intelligence assessments later admitted the insurrection 'didn't happen'.
2Economic Fragility as a Constraint on US Geopolitical Action
The extreme fragility of the global bond market and Trump's anxiety over his low approval ratings (47% disapproval) and the upcoming midterms are presented as significant constraints on US foreign policy. A potential war with Iran, which could close the Strait of Hormuz and impact Gulf States, would severely destabilize the bond market. This economic vulnerability, rather than European 'trade bazooka' threats, is identified as the primary factor that changed the 'Greenland calculus' and will likely deter a 'quick win' military operation against Iran, which is now understood to be a prolonged and costly endeavor.
Crooke references a New York Times poll showing Trump's 47% disapproval rating and his panic about losing the House. He highlights a 'near implosion in the bond market' when Trump announced tariffs over Greenland, linking it to the 'fragility of the economic situation' and the need to sustain it. He explicitly states the bond market is 'the constraint' on Trump's geopolitical thinking.
3Trump's Transactional Geopolitics and the 'Board of Peace'
Trump's approach to geopolitics is characterized as transactional and business-oriented, viewing international relations through the lens of real estate deals and 'payoffs' for stakeholders. His 'Board of Peace' initiative is framed as a private arbitration body chaired by Trump, where he appoints members, decides the agenda, and controls funding, effectively usurping functions of the United Nations Security Council. This contrasts sharply with Russia's demand for formal, legally binding treaties to address 'root causes' like NATO expansion, rather than informal business arrangements.
Crooke describes Trump's desire to 'buy' Greenland as a real estate man's 'big win' and his 'politics of not only transactional but they he sees politics is all about business'. He details how Kushner and others envision 'stakeholders' getting 'payoffs' in 'the grift'. The 'Board of Peace' is described as chaired by Trump, who 'appoints and or not appoints or deselects the people who will be the members of this' and 'decides how to spend it'.
Bottom Line
The severing of Starlink terminals by Iran during internal unrest demonstrates a critical vulnerability for hybrid warfare operations that rely on satellite-based communication for coordination and targeting.
Future covert operations or attempts at internal destabilization will need to account for state capabilities to disrupt advanced satellite communication networks, shifting the tactical advantage back to the defending state.
Develop resilient, decentralized communication technologies that are less susceptible to national-level internet or satellite service disruptions, or conversely, advanced counter-Starlink capabilities for national defense.
Europe's conscious decision to become 'completely dependent' on US liquefied natural gas (LNG) after abandoning Russian pipeline gas has created a strategic vulnerability that limits its geopolitical autonomy.
This dependency means Europe cannot effectively use 'trade bazookas' against the US and must often align with American foreign policy, even when it conflicts with European interests, as seen with Greenland.
For energy producers, this creates a guaranteed long-term market in Europe. For European strategists, it highlights the urgent need to diversify energy sources and develop indigenous capabilities to regain strategic independence.
Lessons
- Analyze geopolitical events through the lens of economic constraints, particularly bond market stability and national debt, as these increasingly dictate military and foreign policy decisions.
- Evaluate the effectiveness of hybrid warfare tactics, recognizing that states can develop sophisticated countermeasures (e.g., internet/Starlink disruption) to neutralize externally directed internal insurrections.
- Assess the true nature of international 'peace' initiatives, discerning whether they aim for genuine conflict resolution through formal treaties or serve as transactional platforms for political and business interests.
Notable Moments
The Canadian Prime Minister's frank admission that 'the rules-based international order is just over,' reflecting a widespread but often unstated understanding among global leaders.
This statement signifies a public acknowledgment of a fundamental shift in global governance, moving away from multilateral norms towards a more power-based, 'force measure' international landscape, impacting future diplomacy and conflict resolution.
Quotes
"The assessment was that you know the insurrection just didn't happen. It was it stopped. Uh, and it even goes on to say, you know, the question is whether it was ever likely or whether it was ever going to succeed. I mean, you know, saying, well, trying again isn't going to work."
"The bond market is much more my view, the constraint about what Trump is thinking, you know, where he would like his next win to come from."
"Everyone had known for years that it was not the case. But nonetheless, everyone continued to put out the sign saying workers of the world unite when Payton Lee wasn't going to ever happen. And then suddenly when it was gone said you know I realized that the era had ended."
Q&A
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