Larry C. Johnson: Iran Missiles Smash Dimona & Tel Aviv - Just in: 3 Fighter Jets Downed
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Donald Trump's claims of productive negotiations with Iran are a tactic to manipulate stock and oil markets, buying time for US military forces to deploy to the region.
- ❖Iran has no intention of a peaceful settlement and views the US actions as a precursor to war, understanding Trump's deception.
- ❖The deployment of the 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne is underway, with arrival dates in late March and early April.
- ❖Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, demanding fees for passage, which is devastating the economies of Gulf Arab states like UAE and Qatar.
- ❖Iran's air defense systems, specifically the infrared-guided Majid, have successfully damaged advanced US fighter jets like the F-35, exploiting a design flaw.
- ❖US military personnel morale is reportedly low, with doubts about the mission's objective and concerns about dying for Israel.
- ❖The US and Israel's strategy was based on a flawed assumption of easy regime change in Iran, leaving them caught in an escalating conflict.
- ❖The economic impact includes soaring oil and fertilizer prices, leading to a global recession, with Asian allies like Japan and South Korea being hit hardest.
- ❖The US withdrawal of troops from Iraq to Jordan signifies a loss of control and a strategic victory for Iran-backed groups.
Insights
1Trump's Deceptive Diplomacy and Military Buildup
Larry C. Johnson asserts that Donald Trump's public statements about productive negotiations with Iran are a deliberate manipulation of financial markets and a tactic to buy time. The true objective, according to Johnson, is to facilitate the deployment of significant US military assets, including the 31st and 11th Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne, to the Persian Gulf, indicating no genuine intent for a peaceful resolution.
Trump's announcement of negotiations (), followed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry's denial (). Johnson's immediate interpretation: 'All Trump is doing is manipulating the stock market and the oil market... He's buying time until the Marines arrive.' (). Specific mention of 31st MEU arriving 'Friday, maybe Saturday' () and 11th MEU around 'April 7th' ().
2Iran's Effective Air Defense Against Advanced US Jets
Iran's air defense system, specifically the Majid short-range air defense system, has demonstrated an unexpected capability to engage and damage advanced US fighter jets like the F-35. The Majid system utilizes passive infrared guidance, making it undetectable by radar-centric threat detection systems of aircraft like the F-35, which were engineered primarily for radar threats.
An animated video, reportedly from Iran, details how the Majid system, using infrared heat guidance without radar emission, locked onto and hit an F-35. The video claims it took 3 seconds to bypass the F-35's threat detection system. Johnson confirms the infrared aspect, stating the missile didn't directly hit but 'impacted one of those [flares]' close enough to 'produce shrapnel that damaged the plane and the pilot was still he was able to get out of Iranian airspace' but the 'plane is destroyed.'
3Economic Collapse of Gulf Arab States and Petrodollar Challenge
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has severely impacted the economies of Gulf Arab states, particularly the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which are heavily reliant on oil, gas, and service industries. This disruption, combined with Iran's intent to monetize passage through the Strait, is accelerating a global economic recession and challenging the supremacy of the US dollar as countries seek alternative currencies like the Yuan for trade.
Johnson describes the UAE as a 'Disneyland' with a 'mythical city' () and states that the loss of oil/petroleum exports and the service industry constitutes '83% of their economy' (). He predicts these countries 'will be running out of food maybe in another month' (). He also notes that 'Iran's going to set up like a tollgate' () and that if Japan and South Korea 'start buying oil with the yuan, holy smokes, that's significant.' ().
4US Military Morale and Strategic Miscalculation
Reports from active-duty and reserve US military personnel indicate low morale and significant doubts about the mission's objective in the conflict with Iran. This sentiment stems from a lack of clear understanding of Donald Trump's strategy and a reluctance to 'die for Israel.' Johnson suggests this mirrors historical issues like 'fragging' during the Vietnam War and speculates on possible internal sabotage, referencing a suspicious 30-hour fire on the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier.
Huff Post reported 'US troops are increasingly uneasy about Donald Trump's Iran strategy' (), with interviews citing 'low morale' and 'doubts about the mission' (). Johnson connects this to 'fragging' in Vietnam () and questions the 30-hour fire on the USS Gerald R. Ford, suggesting it 'doesn't add up' and that the carrier will be 'out of commission for 14 months' ().
Bottom Line
Iran's use of passive infrared air defense systems like Majid against radar-dependent stealth aircraft (F-35) creates a blueprint for other nations to counter advanced Western air power.
This fundamentally alters the calculus of air superiority, as expensive, radar-optimized stealth jets become vulnerable to cheaper, simpler, and harder-to-detect systems. It forces a complete rethinking of air defense and offensive air strategy.
Develop and deploy passive detection and engagement systems that exploit the vulnerabilities of current stealth technology, or invest in countermeasures that can spoof or defeat infrared-guided missiles effectively.
The US-Iran conflict is accelerating the global shift away from the petrodollar, with Iran monetizing the Strait of Hormuz and encouraging trade in non-dollar currencies like the Yuan.
This represents a significant challenge to US financial hegemony and could lead to a multi-polar global economic system. Countries dependent on Persian Gulf oil will be forced to choose between US financial systems and access to critical resources.
For non-Western nations, this creates an opportunity to diversify currency reserves and engage in bilateral trade agreements that bypass the dollar, potentially fostering new economic blocs. For investors, it signals a need to re-evaluate dollar-denominated assets and consider alternative currencies and markets.
Quotes
"All Trump is doing is manipulating the stock market and the oil market. That's all he's trying to keep the prices down. He's buying time until the Marines arrive."
"The United States is going to continue to attack Iran and Iran's going to continue to hit US bases and is the Israelis. Iran at least has a strategy that they're following and they've got a clear plan but straight of Hormuz is closed unless you're willing to uh you know pay for your cargo and yuan."
"The USA spent approximately $400 billion over 30 years on the F-35's development. But that was engineered for radar, not for heat. One side spent $400 billion. The other side built a passive heat sensor on a truck, and physics did the rest."
"If the West is going to destroy Iran, they will do Iran will destroy the econ the global economy that the West depends on."
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