Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: U.S. KC-135 Down — Carrier Abraham Lincoln Hit by Missiles & Drones
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖A critical US base in the Middle East has depleted air defenses, rendering it vulnerable.
- ❖Iran is systematically dismantling US military presence across the Persian Gulf, including Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and Prince Sultan Air Base.
- ❖The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating an unprecedented global economic crisis due to cuts in oil, LNG, and a third of the world's fertilizer supply.
- ❖US officials are accused of lying about military incidents, such as a KC-135 being shot down in Iraq, and covering up casualties.
- ❖Military morale is severely impacted by perceived strategic incompetence and dishonesty from leadership.
- ❖A US ground invasion of Iran is deemed logistically impossible and would result in catastrophic casualties.
- ❖Iran's strategic position now grants it significant leverage for negotiations, including demands for sanctions lifting, reparations, and security guarantees.
- ❖Israel's Iron Dome and other air defense systems are reportedly failing against coordinated attacks.
- ❖The US military presence in the Levant is predicted to end, with regional powers shifting allegiance towards the BRICS nations (India, China, Russia).
- ❖Russia is significantly benefiting from the crisis, selling oil at higher prices and becoming a primary supplier of LNG and fertilizer to Europe and Asia.
Insights
1Depletion of US Air Defense Capabilities
A crucial US base, used for operations, has depleted air defenses. The ground force commander's report on this caused silence among the crisis action team, indicating a severe and unexpected vulnerability.
Host's statement about learning of a critical base's depleted air defenses and the reaction of the crisis action team.
2Iran's Strategic Closure of US Military Presence
Iran is systematically shutting down US military presence across the Persian Gulf. This includes neutralizing Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Prince Sultan Air Base, and Al Udeid, along with other minor bases and airfields.
Larry Johnson's assertion that Iran is 'completely shutting down US military presence' and listing specific bases like Bahrain, Prince Sultan, and Al Udeid.
3Strait of Hormuz Closure: Economic Catastrophe
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is the most consequential action, granting Iran unprecedented leverage. It has cut off a significant portion of the world's oil, liquid natural gas, and, critically, over a third of global fertilizer supply, leading to a potential food crisis in 6-8 months.
Larry Johnson's analysis of the Strait's closure, its impact on oil/LNG, and the specific statistic that 'a little more than a third of the world's fertilizer comes out of the Persian Gulf'.
4US Military Deception and Casualties
The Pentagon is accused of lying about military incidents, such as a KC-135 tanker aircraft crashing in Iraq, when it was reportedly shot down by a surface-to-air missile. There are also claims of covering up casualties.
Larry Johnson's direct statement: 'They put out that this KC 135 crashed in a rock. No, it didn't. It was shot down.' He details a second plane witnessing the missile strike.
5Unwinnable Ground War in Iran
A conventional US ground invasion of Iran is deemed impossible due to the current military landscape. The concentration of troops and equipment, as seen in past conflicts, would be vulnerable to modern drones and missiles. Special operations forces are insufficient, and even large-scale airborne or amphibious landings would face massive casualties and logistical failures.
Larry Johnson and Colonel Wilkerson's detailed breakdown of logistical challenges, the vulnerability of troop concentrations, the limited capabilities of special operations, and the lack of deployable manpower or amphibious vessels.
6Iran's Nuclear Deterrent Strategy
Iran's optimal strategy, according to game theory, is to secretly produce and deploy multiple nuclear weapons. This would provide a 'certain guarantee' against Israeli attacks, as Israel is too small to absorb a nuclear strike, making such a threat credible despite Iran's reluctance to use them on 'holy land'.
Larry Johnson's game theory analysis: 'Iran needs to produce and deploy nuclear weapons as soon as possible. If they do, that's the only way that they will have a pretty certain guarantee that Israel will not attack them.'
7Failure of Israeli Air Defense Systems
Israel's advanced air defense systems, including Iron Dome, David Sling, and Patriot, are proven ineffective against coordinated rocket attacks, as demonstrated by Hezbollah's sustained four-hour barrage that Israel could not stop.
Larry Johnson's statement: 'Hezbollah fired rockets for like four hours... And Israel couldn't stop it. So you know they've proved now Iron Dome David Sling they're done. Patriot done.'
8End of US Presence in the Levant and Global Power Shift
The US military presence in the Levant and Arab countries is predicted to end, forcing a return to an 'offshore strategy'. This coincides with a broader global power shift, where the world's economic power, including financial institutions, will move eastward towards the BRICS nations (India, China, Russia), with the Renminbi potentially becoming the dominant global currency.
Colonel Wilkerson's assertion: 'This is the end of the US presence in the Levant, particularly in the Arab countries.' He adds, 'They're going to go to the axis of India, China, and Russia. They're going to go to the BRICS.'
Bottom Line
The global fertilizer supply chain is a critical, often overlooked, geopolitical vulnerability. With over a third originating from the Persian Gulf, its disruption could trigger a widespread food crisis, far beyond energy price shocks.
This highlights a systemic risk to global food security that is not receiving adequate attention compared to oil or gas. Nations heavily reliant on this supply face severe agricultural and humanitarian consequences.
Investing in alternative, localized, or sustainable fertilizer production technologies and supply chain diversification could become a strategic imperative for national security and economic stability.
The perceived failure of advanced air defense systems (Iron Dome, Patriot) against sophisticated or saturation attacks fundamentally alters military calculus, making traditional 'air superiority' doctrines obsolete.
This suggests a paradigm shift in modern warfare, where even technologically advanced nations may be vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. It undermines confidence in existing defense strategies and military hardware.
Development and investment in next-generation, multi-layered, and AI-driven counter-drone/missile systems, or a complete re-evaluation of force projection strategies, are critical. Nations might also prioritize offensive capabilities to deter rather than solely defend.
Key Concepts
Game Theory
Larry Johnson explicitly uses game theory to analyze Iran's strategic moves, concluding that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the potential for nuclear weapons, creates an undeniable leverage position against the US and Israel.
Escalation Ladder
Colonel Wilkerson references John Mearsheimer's concept of the escalation ladder, arguing that the US has started with air power but cannot realistically move to limited ground power without facing insurmountable logistical and manpower challenges, pushing the conflict into 'deep kimchi'.
Lessons
- Re-evaluate geopolitical risk in the Middle East: Understand that the US military presence is perceived as collapsing, and Iran is gaining significant leverage. This implies increased instability and unpredictable outcomes.
- Monitor global commodity markets, especially for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer: The Strait of Hormuz disruption is not just an energy crisis but a potential food crisis, impacting inflation and supply chains worldwide.
- Scrutinize official narratives on military conflicts: The podcast highlights a significant disconnect between official statements and on-the-ground realities, suggesting a need for independent analysis and diverse information sources when assessing military situations.
Quotes
"What the Iranians have done is completely, they're in the process of completely shutting down US military presence in all throughout the Persian Gulf. I mean, Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, it's done. It's toast."
"The closure of that straight has given Iran leverage that is, you know, there's no precedent for this in history actually because the oil that flows out, the liquid natural gas that flows out and the ura nitrogen for fertilizer that flows out, that's the most impactful because almost a little more than a third of the world's fertilizer comes out of the Persian Gulf."
"The Pentagon's lying. I just saw it today. They put out that this KC 135 crashed in a rock. No, it didn't. It was shot down."
"The real concern is we don't know what we're doing. And we're demonstrating that on a classic scale really that is apparent at least in some ways to them."
"If he takes that next step on that escalation ladder, we're in deep kimchi. We're in trouble."
"There's nothing the US could do militarily without suffering tremendous losses to secure to get an open where traffic would flow freely through the straight of Hormuz. In fact, I don't even think it's possible for them to do it."
"Iran needs to produce and deploy nuclear weapons as soon as possible. If they do, that's the only way that they will have a pretty certain guarantee that Israel will not attack them."
"This is the end of the US presence in the Levant, particularly in the Arab countries. I think it's inevitable."
"The power in the world that funds these wars, that always has fund these war funded these wars, is going to shift its flag. And it's going to shift it to the east. It's not going to stay here."
Q&A
Recent Questions
Related Episodes
Col. Jacques Baud: What a US Ground Invasion of Iran Would REALLY Look Like
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the strategic futility of a US ground invasion of Iran, arguing that current troop levels are insufficient and such an action would backfire, exposing US allies and potentially leading to Iran's nuclearization."
BREAKING: Israel BOMBS Major Iran Gas Site; Top Mullah ELIMINATED; Iran Vows VENGEACE | TBN Israel
"Israel and the United States have escalated their 'Roaring Lion War' against Iran, striking its largest gas facilities, eliminating key intelligence and military figures, and disrupting missile production, while Iran threatens a broader energy war in the Gulf."
TRUMP PANICS AS FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE HITS; TRILLIONS LOST; TEHRAN IN ‘NUCLEAR WINTER’ & CHAOS ERUPTS
"The host details a catastrophic global economic and humanitarian crisis stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran, framing Trump as an incompetent, lying leader whose actions are escalating the conflict and destroying the world."
Col. Jacques Baud: Middle East on Fire — Is This the Start of Something Bigger?
"Colonel Jacques Baud dissects the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, arguing that Western misunderstanding of Iranian culture and strategic duplicity have forced Iran into a position of necessary escalation, ultimately degrading the West's own strategic posture."