There’s FINALLY A Trump Scandal that Voters Understand (w/ Lis Smith) | Bulwark Podcast
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Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Trump's Iran policy, leading to high gas prices, is a 'scandal that voters understand' due to its direct economic impact.
- ❖The alleged DOJ investigation into E. Jean Carroll's lawsuit funding is viewed as a 'sick' and petty abuse of presidential power.
- ❖Democrats should emulate aggressive Republican oversight tactics from the Obama era to expose Trump's corruption, which is described as 'so much worse, so much more brazen' now.
- ❖The 'go everywhere' media strategy for Democrats aims to reach diverse audiences, but requires persuasive arguments rather than confrontational 'punch the host' moments.
- ❖Some 'populist left' Democratic strategies are criticized for being dismissive of other models and lacking a proven track record of winning general elections in purple or red states.
- ❖Successful Democratic candidates, like James Talarico, are advised to acknowledge past 'dumb things' and break with party orthodoxy on issues like oil/gas, border policy, and teacher accountability.
- ❖NYC Mayor Jumaane Williams is praised for prioritizing public safety, public order, housing, and early childhood education, defying 'caricatures and worst expectations' from the left.
Insights
1Trump's Iran Policy and Gas Prices: A Clear Vulnerability
Lis Smith argues that Trump's Iran policy, which has led to increased instability and rising gas prices, is a uniquely understandable and damaging issue for voters. Unlike more complex scandals, the direct connection between foreign policy and pump prices makes it a 'scandal that voters understand' and can hold Trump accountable for, directly contradicting his campaign promises to lower costs and avoid wars.
Donald Trump ran on two big things: 'I'm going to lower your costs, and I'm going to, you know, stop getting into wars.' And he is getting us into wars, and as a result, raising our costs. So, it is It's a very clear connection. This is not just some like amorphous thing that's happening across the globe, hard to follow. It is directly connected to the price that people are paying for gas at the pump.
2DOJ's Alleged Targeting of E. Jean Carroll as an Abuse of Power
The hosts express outrage over reports that the DOJ opened a criminal perjury investigation into E. Jean Carroll's testimony regarding her lawsuit funding. They frame this as a 'sick' and petty act of retaliation by the administration against a sexual assault victim who won a civil case, questioning if this is an appropriate use of DOJ resources and setting a dangerous precedent.
CNN reported that DOJ opened a criminal perjury investigation into her testimony during her deposition about how her lawsuit was funded... It's so disgusting, you know, to think that E. Jean was victimized by Trump. They took it to a jury of their peers. There was a result. And now he becomes the president and he's trying to victimize her again.
3Democrats Need Aggressive Oversight on Corruption
Drawing parallels to aggressive Republican oversight during the Obama years (e.g., Benghazi hearings), Smith advocates for Democrats to proactively and relentlessly expose the 'brazen' corruption within the current administration. She cites examples like Trump's alleged personal investments in companies receiving government contracts (Dell) and his family's foreign dealings, arguing that this corruption is 'so much worse' than previous scandals and needs to be communicated effectively to the public.
The Republican oversight during the Obama and Biden years, Obama in particular, was aggressive and like bloodthirsty and relentless... The corruption is so much worse, so much more brazen. I was last night I was reading through all the Trump stuff. It is crazy. Like have you ever just tried to read it out on this show? Like it would take forever. Like the billions and crypto stuff, the family deals... Trump as part of that like at a press conference is like go buy a Dell. Like go buy Dell... he bought like 5 million in Dell stock. And this week Dell got a $9 billion Department of War contract.
4Critique of 'Populist Left' Democratic Strategy
Miller and Smith express skepticism about the 'populist left' approach, which advocates for 'Bernie-style economics' and dismisses other models for winning swing voters. They argue that this model has not consistently delivered general election victories in purple or red states and that its focus on 'revolution' can be 'terrifying' to voters seeking stability and tangible economic relief, rather than abstract ideological battles.
My point is like they haven't done it. Like they haven't won There aren't the reason that there's no bench of populist lefties is cuz they haven't like recruited successfully a candidate to go out and win a general election in a purple state or a red state... what people say is they don't want a revolution. They want stability. They want people who understand that they wake up in the middle of the night like concerned about losing their job, like being one health emergency away from, you know, being bankrupt.
Bottom Line
The political effectiveness of 'woke' language and progressive purity tests is declining, even within Democratic circles, as candidates realize the need to appeal to broader, more moderate electorates.
This suggests a potential shift in Democratic primary dynamics and general election messaging, moving away from niche ideological positions that can be easily weaponized by opponents.
Candidates who can publicly acknowledge past 'dumb' progressive statements and pivot to more centrist, pragmatic positions on issues like immigration, law enforcement, and economic policy may find greater success in competitive races.
The 'anti-establishment' appeal, often associated with figures like Trump, can be effectively leveraged by Democratic candidates who demonstrate authenticity, acknowledge personal struggles, and directly engage with voters, even if their past is 'imperfect.'
Voters are increasingly drawn to candidates who appear genuine and relatable, rather than polished career politicians. Transparency about flaws and a commitment to 'being a better man' can resonate deeply.
Democratic campaigns should consider recruiting candidates with non-traditional backgrounds and encouraging them to be open about their personal journeys, focusing on how their experiences inform their desire to fight for 'people who feel left behind by the system.'
Key Concepts
The 'Go Everywhere' Strategy
A media engagement approach where political figures appear on diverse platforms, including hostile or right-leaning outlets like Fox News, to reach broader, persuadable audiences. The goal is persuasion through reasoned argument, not merely generating viral 'punch the host' moments for online applause.
Corruption as a Unifying Message
The idea that corruption, especially when tied to personal enrichment and increased costs for citizens, can be a powerful, cross-ideological message to rally voters against an incumbent or opposing party, as seen in the 2006 Democratic success against Republicans.
Lessons
- Democrats should relentlessly highlight the direct economic impact of Trump's foreign policy decisions, particularly on gas prices, to connect national issues to voters' daily lives.
- Adopt an aggressive, sustained oversight strategy to expose and publicize the administration's corruption, framing it as self-enrichment at the expense of ordinary citizens.
- Encourage Democratic candidates to engage with diverse media platforms, including those traditionally hostile, using persuasive arguments focused on shared values like anti-corruption and economic stability, rather than confrontational rhetoric.
Prosecuting the Corruption Case: A Democratic Playbook
Identify and publicize specific instances of corruption, linking them to tangible economic costs or abuses of power (e.g., Dell contract, E. Jean Carroll investigation).
Frame corruption as a systemic issue ('irredeemable culture of corruption') rather than isolated incidents, drawing parallels to past successful campaigns (e.g., 2006 GOP scandals).
Recruit and empower candidates who can credibly prosecute this case, emphasizing their track record of rooting out waste or fighting for accountability (e.g., state auditors, former prosecutors).
Communicate the corruption message across all platforms (campaign trail, paid advertising, diverse media) to ensure it reaches voters beyond partisan echo chambers.
Notable Moments
Tim Miller recounts being accused by the White House of violating FARA for quoting an Iranian news agency, while noting Trump's actual foreign financial dealings.
This anecdote highlights the perceived hypocrisy and weaponization of government accusations, contrasting it with the administration's own alleged corruption.
Lis Smith recalls the 2006 election where Democrats successfully campaigned against a 'culture of corruption' within the Republican Party, citing specific scandals like Mark Foley and pay-to-play schemes.
This provides a historical precedent and strategic blueprint for how Democrats could effectively campaign against perceived corruption in the current political climate.
Discussion of Grant Platner's campaign in Maine, where his 'imperfect flawed life' and openness about past struggles (including controversial Reddit posts) resonated with voters, despite Republican attacks.
This illustrates a potential shift in voter preferences towards authenticity and relatability, even over a 'clean' political record, challenging traditional campaign attack strategies.
Quotes
"Donald Trump does take money from foreign countries, quite a few. His family does, too, yeah. UAE, Saudi, Qatar. He's getting a plane from Qatar. Seems like he might be a foreign agent."
"This is probably the first time in history that anyone associated with Bill Crystal has been accused of being soft on Iran."
"Donald Trump ran on two big things, which is, 'I'm going to lower your costs, and I'm going to, you know, stop getting into wars.' And he is getting us into wars, and as a result, raising our costs. So, it is It's a very clear connection."
"I don't think anyone's ever stoked to be, you know, in the crosshairs of a of a very vengeful president."
"I think Democrats should hold people accountable. But I'm not for just like, you know, blood thirst vengeance."
"I think we temporarily lost our minds. I think we're at risk for that to happen again, by the way. I don't I don't think we're out of the woods."
"I happen to be believe that people shouldn't be defined by their worst days, the worst things they've said online, the worst tattoos they've gotten."
"Overall, what people say is they don't want a revolution. They want stability."
Q&A
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