Larry C. Johnson & Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran Warns U.S. in Urgent Letter to UN Vowing to WIPE OUT
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖US and Israeli intelligence on Iran's military capabilities and internal dissent is severely flawed and driven by propaganda.
- ❖Iran's naval exercises with Russia are long-planned, not recent posturing, indicating a deeper strategic alignment.
- ❖Iran possesses sophisticated drone and missile technology, including hypersonic missiles, and has successfully reverse-engineered US systems.
- ❖A US attack on Iran is projected to result in 10,000+ American casualties, far exceeding losses in Afghanistan and Iraq over 20 years.
- ❖US negotiation attempts with Iran are a 'joke,' characterized by indirect communication and susceptibility to Zionist pressure.
- ❖Iran has signed trilateral security agreements with Russia and China, integrating advanced Chinese radar and Russian air defense systems.
- ❖Western polling indicating widespread Iranian opposition to the regime is funded by US government entities (NED, USAID) and contradicted by more reliable methods.
- ❖Recent attacks on Iran have galvanized Iranian nationalism, uniting the population against external threats.
- ❖Iran has warned the UN that any attack on its soil will result in retaliation against all hostile military installations and facilities in the region, including Israel and potentially Diego Garcia.
- ❖The claim that Iran is the world's leading sponsor of terrorism is false; Sunni groups, often backed by Gulf states, are responsible for over 80% of international terrorism casualties.
- ❖The US is isolating itself globally, with countries like Brazil shifting trade to China and former allies losing trust.
- ❖China's economic and military dominance is growing, with plans to replace the US dollar as the number one financial system.
Insights
1Flawed US Intelligence and Propaganda on Iran's Capabilities
The US and Israel consistently underestimate Iran's military prowess, particularly its drone and missile capabilities. Official narratives, like those from Fox News, portray Iran as 'pretending to project strength' while US intelligence is 'collecting' and 'mapping.' However, Iran has demonstrated the ability to intercept and reverse-engineer US drones (like the CIA drone 14 years prior, a prototype for the Shahed), and possesses a vast arsenal of mobile ballistic missiles, including hypersonic variants. Claims of US/Israeli air defense effectiveness against Iranian missiles are dismissed as 'crap' and 'lies,' with actual interception rates as low as 5%.
Larry C. Johnson details Iran's ability to bring down and reverse-engineer a CIA drone (), its possession of MQ9 Reapers (), and the existence of at least 18 variants of ballistic missiles, including hypersonic and intercontinental types (). He cites Ted Postal's analysis showing a 5% interception rate for Iranian missiles (). Col. Wilkerson criticizes the Fox News analyst's 'shitty' analysis and 'blind propagandist' stance ().
2The Robust Russia-China-Iran Security Alliance
Contrary to US assumptions of Iran's isolation, Iran has forged deep and unprecedented security alliances with Russia and China. This includes a trilateral security agreement signed on January 29th, following bilateral agreements. China has deployed advanced radar capable of detecting stealth aircraft 300 miles from Iran's borders, integrated with Russian S300/S400 air defense systems. Russia has also supplied attack helicopters to Iran, likely in response to perceived British SAS and CIA efforts to instigate an insurrection via Kurds.
Larry C. Johnson details the trilateral security agreement (), Chinese radar deployment (), Russian air defense integration (), and Russia supplying attack helicopters (). He connects the helicopters to intelligence about British SAS and CIA arming Kurds for insurrection ().
3Catastrophic Consequences of a US Attack on Iran
Any US 'limited strike' on Iran is predicted to escalate into a full-scale conflict with devastating outcomes. The White House has been briefed on the possibility of 10,000 American casualties, surpassing the total losses in Afghanistan and Iraq over two decades. Iran has explicitly stated it will retaliate with 'everything they've got' against all US bases, ships, and aircraft in the region, and against Israel. The US's historical inability to locate mobile missile platforms (e.g., in 1990, 2003 Iraq, 2024 Yemen) suggests a similar failure in Iran, compounded by Iran's significant air defenses and the support from Russia and China.
Larry C. Johnson states the White House anticipates 10,000 American casualties () and Iran's clear intent to retaliate against all US installations and Israel (). He highlights the US's consistent failure to locate mobile missile platforms () and the Houthi's success in shooting down MQ9 Reapers (). Col. Wilkerson questions the US's ability to respond if Israel 'ceases to exist' or a carrier is sunk ().
4US Policy Driven by Biased Polling and Zionist Influence
US policymakers' perception of overwhelming Iranian opposition to the Islamic Republic is based on flawed polling funded by US government entities (National Endowment for Democracy, USAID). These internet-based surveys claim 80% dissent, while traditional telephone polling by the University of Maryland shows less than 20%. This biased data justifies interventionist policies. Furthermore, US negotiations with Iran are undermined by internal 'Zionist crowd' pressure, leading to retracted agreements, and the appointment of unqualified negotiators like Jared Kushner.
Larry C. Johnson exposes the funding sources and contradictory results of polling on Iranian public opinion (). He describes US negotiations as a 'joke' with 'not serious people' like Jared Kushner () and details how 'the whole Zionist crowd started kicking him in the ass' to retract agreements ().
Bottom Line
The US's economic dominance, particularly the dollar's reserve currency status, is rapidly eroding due to growing US debt and the BRICS countries' shift towards gold, silver, and unloading US treasuries.
This economic shift implies a fundamental weakening of US global power, making its military adventurism riskier and less sustainable. Hyperinflation in the US is a real and accelerating threat.
Investors and nations should diversify away from dollar-denominated assets and explore opportunities within the BRICS economic sphere, which is actively building alternatives to the Western financial system.
The US is actively using proxies and covert operations (e.g., arming Kurds, British SAS insertion) to destabilize Iran, despite the historical ineffectiveness and high cost of such tactics.
This approach is likely to fail, further entrenching the Russia-China-Iran alliance and galvanizing Iranian nationalism, rather than achieving regime change. It also risks direct confrontation with Russia and China.
Nations seeking to counter US influence could leverage and support these proxy forces, but the primary opportunity lies in understanding the futility of such interventions and avoiding similar missteps.
Key Concepts
The Last War Fallacy
The tendency for military planners to prepare for the last war fought, rather than anticipating future threats or adapting to evolving enemy capabilities. This is evident in the US belief in quick air victories against Iran, despite historical failures and Iran's advanced defenses.
Propaganda and Confirmation Bias in Intelligence
The phenomenon where intelligence agencies and policymakers cherry-pick or fund data that confirms their pre-existing biases or desired narratives, rather than objective reality. This is illustrated by the US government's reliance on NED/USAID-funded polling showing high Iranian dissent, while ignoring contradictory, more robust polling.
The Fallen Giant Syndrome
Describes a once-dominant power exhibiting behaviors of self-isolation, miscalculation, and a refusal to acknowledge its declining influence, leading to further erosion of its global standing. The US's approach to Iran, its economic policies, and its relationships in South America are cited as examples.
Lessons
- Critically evaluate official government and mainstream media narratives regarding geopolitical conflicts, especially those involving US adversaries, by seeking out diverse expert opinions and data sources.
- Recognize the significant risks of military intervention in complex geopolitical environments, particularly when facing well-armed and allied adversaries, and advocate for diplomatic solutions.
- Consider the implications of a declining US dollar and shifting global economic power dynamics for personal and national financial strategies, exploring diversification beyond traditional Western-centric models.
Notable Moments
Larry C. Johnson debunks the Fox News analyst's claims about Iranian drone capabilities and naval exercises, calling him a 'shitty analyst' and 'blind propagandist.'
This exchange immediately sets the tone for the podcast, highlighting the speakers' contrarian stance against mainstream narratives and their commitment to exposing what they see as misinformation.
The discussion about US government-funded polling (GAN) in Iran, which claims 80% opposition to the regime, being contradicted by University of Maryland polling showing less than 20% opposition.
This reveals how biased intelligence can be manufactured and used to justify policy decisions, directly impacting the US's perception of Iran's internal stability and the feasibility of regime change.
Iran's urgent letter to the UN, stating that any attack on its soil would make all hostile forces' assets in the region legitimate targets for Iranian defense.
This demonstrates Iran's clear and public commitment to a full-scale retaliation, removing any ambiguity about its response and raising the stakes significantly for any potential aggressor.
The revelation that seven squadrons of F-35s (168 planes) were deployed, raising questions about their operational readiness given issues like missing nose cone radars due to gallium shortages and high maintenance requirements.
This highlights potential vulnerabilities and overestimations of US air power, suggesting that even advanced military assets may not perform as expected in a high-intensity conflict.
Quotes
"He says he's an intelligence analyst. Shows you what a shitty analyst he was because, you know, number one, these quote naval exercises that are underway. This is the eighth consecutive year that it's been done."
"If we do it, uh, we're going to we're going to suffer significant casualties. It's highly likely that if if Trump decides to proceed, you know, he's talked about, well, we're going to do a limited strike. Iran's made it clear they don't they're not going to judge it limited or massive. If they are hit, they're going to retaliate with everything that they've got."
"These people are lying sacks of proverbial horse turds. There's no question about that. diplomats, give me a break. And I think the Iranians finally have figured that out. So, I don't think they're believing anything that they're hearing other than the bombs are going to drop."
"This fantasy we have that we're going to launch all these air strikes, they're forgetting that Iran has a say in this, but also now China and Russia. And we're seeing China and Russia engage with Iran on a level and scale never seen before."
"80% of Iranians hate the mullas and can't wait to get rid of them. 80%. So I looked into the funding source. Geez. Ned, National Endowment for Democracy and USAD. Huh? Go figure that the"
"We're up over 90,000. And yet here's Israel crying the crocodile tears about, 'Oh my god, we've suffered this incredible threat from Iran.' The fact of the matter is, no, they haven't."
"We're isolating ourselves in our own hemisphere. This is the the the the behavior of a fallen giant."
Q&A
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