MAGA Isn’t a Majority—So Why Is It Winning? (w/ Dan Cantor) | How to Fix It
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖Fusion voting allows a candidate to be nominated by multiple parties, with votes tallied separately but combined for the total.
- ❖This system was legal in every US state in the 19th century, enabling minor parties to be constructive actors.
- ❖It prevents the 'wasted vote' or 'spoiler' dilemma that often plagues third parties in single-winner elections.
- ❖Fusion voting incentivizes major party candidates to pay attention to the platforms and voters of smaller parties that endorse them.
- ❖The two major parties systematically banned fusion voting through 'anti-fusion laws' from 1895 to the 1920s to protect their duopoly.
- ❖Only Connecticut and New York currently retain full fusion voting, allowing distinct vote tallies per party line.
- ❖The current two-party system distorts representation, allowing a minority faction (e.g., MAGA, estimated at 20% of Americans) to control a major party (e.g., 60% of the Republican primary electorate).
- ❖Efforts are underway to revive fusion voting through state-level court cases, particularly in states like New Jersey, Kansas, and Wisconsin.
- ❖Fusion voting encourages civic engagement, compromise, and coalition-building, which are essential for a functioning democracy.
Insights
1Fusion Voting: Mechanism and Historical Precedent
Fusion voting permits a single candidate to appear on the ballot under the labels of multiple political parties. In this system, minor parties can endorse a major party candidate who aligns with some of their values, and the votes cast on the minor party's line are added to the candidate's total. This mechanism, prevalent in every 19th-century US election, allowed parties like the Free Soil or Populist parties to inject new ideas (e.g., abolition, railroad regulation) into mainstream politics without being 'spoilers' or having their votes 'wasted'.
Dan Cantor details: 'In a fusion legal system, it means that you can get out of the wasted vote and spoiler box that makes third parties either irrelevant or counterproductive.' He describes the process: 'The votes are tallied separately and then added together. You get 52% of the vote. 44 on the Democratic line, 8% on the Working Families Party line, and you win the election.' (, )
2The Duopoly's Consolidation: Banning Fusion Voting
The two major parties actively suppressed fusion voting starting in the late 19th century. After governments took over ballot printing in the 1880s, major parties realized they could control ballot access. They passed 'anti-fusion laws' across almost all states, prohibiting candidates from appearing on more than one party line. This move eliminated the constructive role of minor parties, forcing them into an ineffective 'spoiler' role and cementing the two-party system, which has persisted for over 175 years without a new major party emerging.
Cantor explains: 'In the 1880s, for some good reasons, the government took over the printing of ballots... it wasn't long before the major parties realized, well, if we print the ballots, we can control who's on the ballot. And so what they did was they passed what are known... as the anti-fusion laws.' (, ) He notes, 'The United States is the only major country... in which no new major political party emerged in the entire 20th century.' ()
3Fusion Voting as an Antidote to Polarization
The current two-party system fosters zero-sum conflict and extreme polarization, where compromise is punished. Fusion voting, by contrast, incentivizes inter-party coalitions and bargaining. When a candidate relies on votes from a minor party line, they are compelled to consider the minor party's agenda, fostering a more nuanced political discourse and encouraging elected officials to represent a broader spectrum of interests. This system can decrease polarization and increase the faith in democracy by enabling government to solve public problems more effectively.
Cantor states: 'The problem is when you have only two, then you're in this zero someum conflict where I can only win if you lose.' () He adds, 'It incentivizes interparty coalitions. Our current system punishes anybody who compromises.' () The host, John Avlon, frames it as 'a way to decrease polarization to form new coalitions.' ()
4MAGA's Disproportionate Power: A Consequence of the Two-Party System
The two-party system distorts political representation, allowing a minority faction to gain outsized control. For example, while MAGA Republicans constitute an estimated 20% of the American populace, this minority translates into nearly 60% of the Republican primary electorate, granting them total control over the party's direction. In contrast, a proportional representation system (like Germany's) would convert a similar percentage of votes into a corresponding percentage of legislative seats, preventing a minority from dominating a major party.
Cantor illustrates: 'In America, MAGA is 20% of Americans in poll after poll... That 20% converts into almost 60% of the Republican party primary electorate. And that gives them total control.' He contrasts this with Germany, where a similar 'MAGA party' (AFD) gets 21% of the vote and 21% of the seats, 'a long way from 51.' ()
Bottom Line
The legal battle to reintroduce fusion voting is primarily occurring at the state level, leveraging state constitutions' provisions for freedom of speech and association, rather than the federal constitution.
This decentralized legal strategy avoids the current hostile federal Supreme Court, potentially allowing for incremental victories that could create a patchwork of states with fusion voting, demonstrating its efficacy and building momentum for broader adoption.
Advocacy groups and legal organizations can focus resources on states with favorable constitutional language and judicial leanings, targeting specific legislative or judicial pathways to re-establish fusion voting.
The rise of independent voters (45% of Americans) signals a 'market failure' in the political system, indicating a strong unmet demand for alternative political homes beyond the two major parties.
This large, disaffected voter segment represents a significant base for new fusion parties, particularly centrist ones, to emerge and gain influence by offering meaningful choices without the 'spoiler' penalty.
Entrepreneurs and political organizers can form new parties or movements specifically designed to leverage fusion voting, appealing to independent and moderate voters by offering a platform for coalition-building and principled bargaining.
Key Concepts
Political Market Failure
The concept that when a significant portion of the electorate (e.g., 45% self-identifying as independent) expresses dissatisfaction with existing political choices, but the system prevents new options from emerging or gaining traction, it represents a 'market failure' in the political sphere. Fusion voting is presented as a mechanism to address this failure by allowing new political 'products' (parties/ideas) to gain influence without being destructive.
Lessons
- Educate yourself and others on fusion voting: Understand its historical role, how it works, and its potential benefits for addressing political polarization and dysfunction.
- Support organizations like the Center for Ballot Freedom: These groups are actively engaged in litigation and advocacy to reintroduce fusion voting in various states.
- Engage with state-level political reform efforts: Monitor and support legislative or judicial initiatives in your state that aim to restore fusion voting or other electoral reforms that promote multi-party engagement and compromise.
Notable Moments
Dan Cantor's personal evolution from a founder of the left-leaning Working Families Party to advocating for centrist fusion parties.
This highlights the urgency of the current political crisis, where even ideologically committed figures recognize the need for structural reform to foster compromise and create political homes for moderate voters, transcending traditional left-right divides.
The hosts and guest's discussion about the Danish TV show 'Borgen' as an example of functional, bargaining-oriented politics.
This moment underscores the stark contrast between a multi-party system that incentivizes negotiation and the current US system, which is perceived as dysfunctional and lacking principled engagement, making the idea of fusion voting more tangible by showing an alternative.
Quotes
"Everybody thinks we have this two-party system and it's written into the constitution or it's just in fact of nature, but in in fact it's not. It's a it's a result of the rules that we have."
"If you're a good politician, you'll notice, huh, that's interesting. I got 8% of my vote. Kind of helped me get over the finish line. I'm going to have to pay attention to th to those people."
"The problem is when you have only two, then you're in this zero someum conflict where I can only win if you lose."
"The two-party is an artificial construct of the anti-fusion laws. That's what keeps it that's what prevents new parties from emerging."
"In America, MAGA is 20% of Americans in poll after poll... that 20% converts into almost 60% of the Republican party primary electorate. And that gives them total control."
Q&A
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