Pentagon PREPS Airborne Troops For Iran As Nuclear Fears Escalate
Quick Read
Summary
Takeaways
- ❖The Pentagon is weighing deploying 3,000 82nd Airborne troops to Iran, alongside Marine Expeditionary Units, for 'sea control' operations.
- ❖Military analyst Brandon Wer calls these plans 'kooky talk,' arguing current US forces are inadequate against Iran's modern drone and missile capabilities.
- ❖Wer predicts US forces will face 'Gallipoli from World War I' conditions, leading to humiliation and a retreat.
- ❖He speculates the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier's recent return to port was due to an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) hit, not a laundry fire, further highlighting US naval vulnerability.
- ❖The US has only 3 operational aircraft carriers out of 11, and shipyard backlogs mean repairs could take 24-28 months.
- ❖Iran is demonstrating 'escalation dominance' with robust missile stockpiles (18-24 months remaining) and over 88,000 unused drones.
- ❖Forcibly controlling the Strait of Hormuz would require a substantially larger US force, accepting massive casualties and loss of expensive platforms.
- ❖Wer believes Trump's strategy is a dangerous 'escalate to de-escalate' approach, conspiring with Netanyahu for a disastrous 'Gallipoli 2.0' that will fail.
- ❖The analyst maintains a high probability that a failed US intervention will prompt Netanyahu to use nuclear weapons against Iran, as he sees no other off-ramp for Israel.
Insights
1US Deployment Strategy is Critically Flawed and Underestimated
Brandon Wer describes the Pentagon's plan to deploy a brigade of 3,000 82nd Airborne soldiers and Marine Expeditionary Units to establish 'sea control' along the Iranian coastline as 'kooky talk' and 'crazy town level stuff.' He argues that this 'small, light, and fast force' is insufficient to overcome Iranian defenses. The analyst highlights that US troops would face waves of 88,000+ Shahad drones, missiles, and hypersonics, not traditional man-on-man combat, leading to a 'Gallipoli from World War I' scenario and a humiliating retreat.
Wer's assessment of the 82nd Airborne and Marine deployments, citing the Clauswitzian model for massing force and comparing the expected combat environment to Russia's early experiences in Ukraine with drone warfare.
2US Naval Power is Vulnerable and Diminished
Wer speculates that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier's recent return to port, officially attributed to a 'laundry fire,' was likely due to an Iranian anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) strike. He asserts that the Ford will be out of commission for 24-28 months due to severe shipyard backlogs, leaving the US with only three operational carriers out of eleven. This significant loss of capability is framed as a strategic nightmare, inviting rivals like China and Russia to exploit US weakness.
Speculation regarding the USS Gerald R. Ford's 'laundry fire' and the analyst's projection of 24-28 month repair times due to US shipyard sclerosis.
3Iran Possesses Significant and Underestimated Military Capabilities
Contrary to media reports suggesting Iran has limited missile stockpiles, Wer states that Iran has 18-24 months of missile supplies remaining and has barely touched its arsenal of over 88,000 Shahad drones. He notes that Iran has recently upgraded to more advanced, lethal missiles like the Khorramshahr, demonstrating 'escalation dominance' through daily strikes in Israel. This robust and underestimated arsenal makes any US attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz incredibly costly and difficult.
Wer's counter-narrative to media reports on Iranian missile stockpiles, citing the number of drones and the recent use of advanced missiles in strikes against Israel.
4High Probability of Nuclear Weapon Use by Israel
Wer expresses high confidence that a failed US military intervention in Iran will directly lead to Israel using nuclear weapons. He portrays Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as 'completely locked in' and operating in a '1945 Berlin' mentality, viewing the US Marine landings as a 'last Hail Mary.' When this fails and Trump gets 'cold feet,' Netanyahu will resort to nukes as his only remaining option, given Israel's desperate situation and the lack of diplomatic off-ramps.
Wer's direct prediction of Netanyahu's actions following a failed US intervention, based on his assessment of Netanyahu's mindset and strategic options.
Quotes
"This whole thing is is kooky talk. This is crazy town level stuff because 82nd Airborne is wonderful... but this is not going to work the way they think it is."
"This is not going to end well. This is going to be Galipoly from World War I and it will end in us retreating in, you know, humiliation and I think that's when we start talking about nuclear weapons."
"I personally have no evidence of this. This is speculation, but I do think that was probably probably clipped by one of those Iranian ASBMs."
"In my opinion, these missile strikes are clearly demonstrating escalation dominance on the part of the Iranians. They clearly have a robust arsenal."
"I think what happens is the he they're banking on one last Hail Mary being the US Marine landings. That's not going to work under current conditions. At that point, Trump's going to probably get cold feet... And then at that point, Netanyahu is going to say, 'Uhuh, nope. I'm going, this is it. The Americans are getting cold feet. They can't do it. I got to do it. I'm gonna the only thing I've got are nukes.'"
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